"Improve From Within"

The Green Bay Packers have been praised to the High Heavens for drafting and developing their own players, rather than taking the expensive route of signing veterans through free agency.  I am a big fan of this approach.  For one, it puts a lot less stress on the salary cap.  Another great thing about the "improve from within" approach is that you resign players who already know your system and so the learning curve is basically zero.  Last but not least, the approach has worked very well for GB, in spite of what happened last Sunday afternoon, the Packers have been generally successful under GM Ted Thompson's dilligent leadership.

But, it's time to complain - not riot, but just submit a complaint of sorts.  Green Bay has a remarkably talented team and for that the organization's think tank ought to be praised.  But, the Packers are in a window right now where winning a championship is a very realistic goal going into 2012.  The Packers probably have a few too many holes to really fix things in one offseason, particularly on the defensive side of the football.  Isn't this the type of situation in which the Packers should seriously consider signing a couple of guys in free agency that can contribute or at least one star player?  For example, (arm chair GM warning)... if the Packers were to make a move for a player like Mario Williams to play Cullen Jenkins' old spot on the DL, that would do a lot of good, immediately IMO.  Williams would be able to make plays on the opposite side of Clay Matthews.  This formula worked wonders for Jenkins & Matthews, and it allowed for Woodson to be a valuable blitz option as well.  Last and certainly not least, the pass rush would make that secondary look a lot better.

In my opinion, the Packers will not be able to find adaquate firepower over one offseason to repair the problem.   Signing a free agent does not mean GB has to dump the "improve from within" strategy, it just means that while the window to win a title is open, GB needs to their best to get it done right away.  I'm very disappointed to hear the old "improve from within" cliche from McCarthy.

Mario Williams is one of few that could be considered a bona fide prize free agent.  You would pay dearly for his services and you would be getting a guy who had two operations last year.  I doubt that the Texans would be all that interested in losing his talent.  Can we afford him?

If we are talking defense then we don't have many "in-house" options.  People keep talking about the talent on this Packers squad but who do we really have to upgrade our D-line, coverage linebackers or pass rushers?  Who do we really have as depth at saftey - Peprah and M.D. Jennings?  Who do we have as depth at corner - Bush, Lee and House?  If we were to draft 2 D-linemen, 2 linebackers and a safety, who were potential starters then I would say that we had some depth on defense.  Without this kind of success in our draft we are relying on Walden, Zombo, So'Oto, Bush, Peprah and the like to start.

It would be nice if TT picked up a quality D-lineman or pass rushing OLB but I am not holding my breath.  He ignored the availability of Aaron Maybin from Buffalo and the late release of Aaron Curry from Seattle.  I know that people want to hold up Pickett and Woodson as examples of TT's ability to farm FA's but other than 5 years ago the only thing that TT has done via that route is Brandon Chillar.  I guess that I am saying "don't hold your breath". 

I am going to hope for a monster draft and be pleasantly, pleasantly surprised if we land one guy outside of this method.  The good news is that we are only a couple of studs short of fixing this defense.  If we can get 2 or 3 end-of-year starters out of this draft, we will be ready for a another run.  

"If we were to draft 2 D-linemen, 2 linebackers and a safety, who were potential starters then I would say that we had some depth on defense. "

The issue I have with TT's "draft 'em and teach 'em" mentality is that - using your example above - 2DL, 2LB, and S, that's round 5 already. Starting at #28, who do we think we can get to upgrade - and provide needed depth - at the 4th from last pick in the first 5 rounds?

It's not like we're building a new team ala Jags or Clev. We're TWO flipping studs away from an improved D: One DE and one OLB. Pass rush, pass rush, pass rush makes our secondary good and relavent again. 

Teddy - like the Polians in Indy - can't fix everything through the draft.  Where are them two now and what's happened to Indy's depth? I'm just sayin' ... ... 

Polian sucked. He reaped the rewards of having Peyton Manning. Couldn't draft nearly as good as TT. If the Packers lost Rodgers, we would be no where near 2-14. Hell, just for one game without Rodgers (Woodson & Mathews) the Packers were 1-0 (against a playoff team), that's half way there in just one game.

A quick fact from my Packers desk calender.....

Of the Packers active roster during their Super Bowl winning season, the Packers had 36 players which were drafted by Green Bay. That's pretty amazing.

Sorry guys, but we are doing the right thing staying away from FA and I agree with the TT concept.  We pay our own guys that produce IN OUR SYSTEM before dishing out big bucks on other players.  We will need the dough anyway if we are interested in resigning a bunch of key players on the current team.  Finley and Wells about to get theirs.....Jennings, Rodgers, Matthews, Raji come due soon followed by others.  Why spend bucks for a Mario Williams which could impact resigning our players.  The team has been built now and should stay in the hunt for a title next few years.  Focus the draft on the defense which everyone knows is a weak area.  We have playmakers on defense, but need that pass rush improved with a solid OLB and DE.  If Nick Collins is done we either move Woodson to safety and draft a CB or safety.  All the so-called talented FA CB's from 2011 didn't exactly turn any of their teams into anything special so why waste the money.  The only player I would like to see TT try to get would be Cullen Jenkins if that is even possible......we missed him a bunch this past season.

"Last but not least, the approach has worked very well for GB, in spite of what happened last Sunday afternoon, the Packers have been generally successful under GM Ted Thompson's dilligent leadership."

I have issue with this statement, as it regards to our defense. Look at OLB. We've had Chillar and Popinga and changed schemes. Then we had Zombo and Walden and  So'oto. None of them were really very good ... good, yes; but very good? CMIII good? No. Defensive Line ... Cole, Jolly, Harrel ... change schemes, Jenkins, Picket, Green, Wynn ... it's a revolving door at those two spots.

I think (as I've said on other threads) the FULL BODY of Ted's work has been good, but he falls down on specific areas; areas that hurt this team. He sucks at DT or DE (whatever the last dude of a 3-4 is called), he hasn't picked a decent CB since ... well Tramon Williams was a gift last year, but "just good" this year (a product of no pass rush???) ...  or what?

His reluctance or stubborness to pick up a key free agent addressing just the pass rush - logically if one is available to us - will determine if we're competitive on BOTH sides of the ball or reliant on one team to hold up the other next year. In 2010 it was the D bailing out the O. In 2011 the O masked a poor D until the last apearence.

Get them on as equal a level as possible. 

The issue I have with TT's "draft 'em and teach 'em" mentality is that - using your example above - 2DL, 2LB, and S, that's round 5 already. Starting at #28, who do we think we can get to upgrade - and provide needed depth - at the 4th from last pick in the first 5 rounds?

I hear you.  I am hoping for 3 potential end-of year starters/contributors from this draft - basically through the 3rd round.   You can't afford to make any mistakes in the these early rounds.  The overall "2DL, 2LB, and S" yield would be talent that could be considered depth on defense.  Of course, that would mean cutting loose players who are currently on the roster that don't really count as "acceptable" depth.  If you are going to live by the draft, then you better make your picks count.

One player I would love to sign this offseason is DE Calias Campbel from the Cardinals. He is a bigger more athletic version of Cullen Jenkins. He is some one I can easily see TT signing based on the fact that there seems to be a lack of quality 34 DE's in this draft, and Campbel is poised to be the best 34 DE in free agency assuming the Cards don't franchise him. I don't see TT making a move for Mario Williams though, he will simply be too expensive. Any ways this would be my offseason plan...

Sign Calias Campbel
Sign Jermichael Finley
Franchise Matt Flynn (I know it's risky but it's worth the risk, if we can sign Finley beforehand)
Trade Matt Flynn
Draft OLB Zach Brown or OLB Mercilus (The name value alone is worth the pick) in the 1st round
Draft HB LaMichael James in the 2nd round
Draft DE Billy Winn in the 3rd round (may have to trade up in the third to do it though).
Win SB XLVII

Yeah , I don't think the whole "draft and improve from within" concept will work on the defensive side of the ball this upcomoing year, Packers need to hit the F.A. market hard( I know they are not known for this) but that lack of F.A. talent on the defensive side of the ball this year, is why we are all here on message boards complaing about defense, Instead of posting NFC champoionship game threads


HIT THE MARKET TED!!!!!!

The way Ted does things is the way to go on alot of fronts and it holds true in all profesional sports, if a team drafts well and develops their own players they are going to be consistantly good and always have a shot, there is also a long list of teams that went crazy in free agency and had it blow up in their face. Most NFL players that hit free agency are free agents for a reason-they suck, they are hurt, they are old..., throw in the franchise tag and restricted free agents and the available pool is even worse.  Quite frankly only a small handfull of players become available that are going to have any impact, the rest are just an exchange of pawns.  

So the way I've always looked at free agency is that you don't build a team through it, but if you've built a team the right way and maybe need that one or two missing pieces to put you over the top then maybe that is when you stick your foot in the door and take the risk by going after one of the top guys available.  Heres the problem:  Mario Williams, Calais Campbell, Anthony Spencer, Ahmad Brooks, that is about the extent of ends or backers that would fit into a 3-4 and get the pass rusher the Packers need that are better than average football players, there are some other names to throw out there like Jarrett Johnson or Jason Jones that would be better than say Erik Walden and Jarius Wynn but they aren't guys that are going to tip the scale. 

(note: Cullen Jenkins has a 5 million roster bonus due the Eagles might not pick up) 

Some of the problems on defense weren't due to lack of talent, the miscommunications, the blown coverages, missed tackles, we all saw it and it was stuff that didn't happen the season before with basically the same players, there is something else there that was going on that was totally amiss and needs to get looked at and fixed, they kept making the same mental errors over and over again, so that is part of TT's offseason as well.

Rodgers, Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Sitton, Kuhn are all in their prime we know what they are capable of, Bulaga, Lang, Starks, Cobb, Newhouse, Sherrod all showed good things and to a lesser extent guys like Green, Saine, Gurley and Williams, so there is plenty of "improve from within" going for the offensive side of the ball. 

Defensively...Matthews, Bishop, Raji, and Williams are the core, some improvement could come from Burnett, Shields, and Smith...and then what a couple old dogs in Woodson and Pickett and then not much.  I expect a defense heavy draft and maybe, just maybe,  TT dives into the FA pool. 

Packers seem to sign free agents stategically and spareingly,but I agree we need someone on defense who can provide a way to help free up Matthews to make plays.Even with Matthews drawing double and triple teams no one else can seem to make plays consistantly.Could that one player be London Fletcher?He played at a very high level this past season and brings an intensity that we seem to lack outside of Matthews.We need to bring in a lot of young players on defense and Fletcher helps with leadership while those guys develop.In 96 the biggest single factor in winning a SB was the aquisition of Reggie White.In 2010 Charles Woodson was one of the keys.If we want another SB its time to pull the free agency trigger again.

London Fletcher is going to be 37 years old in May? He isn't worth throwing any money at ..at his age. I just don't see TT going out and signing any impact FAs.  I hope So'oto improves this offseason and they trust him to get on the field.

Maybe Lawrence Guy can make some sort of impact on the D-line as well. Maybe..just maybe..Mike Neal can improve in the offseason as well.

D J Smith, MD Jennings and Davon House as well.  I agree they really need an impact LBer and a D-line that can provide a RUSH.

IF they can improve the front seven..I think you'll see dramatic improvement in the secondary.

IF they can improve the front seven..I think you'll see dramatic improvement in the secondary.

That simple thought means so much and I agree 100% with you for once.  That's why I just theoretically suggested a guy like Mario Williams is worth the big check you'll have to cut him.  I know it probably won't happen, but what I do know is Mike Neal cannot be relied on right now.  I don't blame TT for thinking Neal would pan out - that's why he drafted him, but that idea failed.  Again, as I said in the original post, signing 1 bigtime FA does not mean the Packers have to abandon the "improve from within" approach, it just means that while the window to win a title is open... we have to do everything we can to capitalize on this chance. 

We can dream on Williams, but it can't happen because of the money and the fact that HOU will franchise him anyway. But there are always quality (perhaps not stars) bodies available in FA. Walden graded out as the worst OLB in pro football last season by a wide margin according to PFF. He was the single worst OLB v the run (twice as bad as the next worst guy) and second worst in pass coverage in the NFL. It doesn't take much to improve some of these positions. Sometimes a marginal FA is what you need through the market, draft the impact guys.

FA is not the enemy, it should be our friend if used right.

Maybe Lawrence Guy can make some sort of impact on the D-line as well. Maybe..just maybe..Mike Neal can improve in the offseason as well.


LnC, you are truly an optimist.  Lawrence Guy spent the entire year on IR for a concussion - a concussion.  I wouldn't hold my breath for a 7th rounder with a soft pumpkin.  As for Mike Neal, well if he can stay away from the tackling sledge he may be okay.  Still, there are guys who can play and stay healthy (like Raji and Matthews) and then there are guys like Neal, Zombo, Starks and the like who have trouble giving you half a season and the other half hobbled.  Hopefully, TT avoids the 'talented' athlete with a lot of upside, that battled injuries throughout his college career.    

 

the fact that HOU will franchise him anyway

The Texans can't franchise Williams because his contract was big time backloaded with a 13.8 million base salary last season and 120% of his previous seasons salary is higher than the franchise number(the tag is for whichever is greater), that would put his tag number at least 16.6 million, I've seen it reported as high as 21 and 23 million so he must have had a sizeable roster bonus as well, if those numbers are correct the Texans certainly can't have 1/5th-1/6th of their total cap being used up on a franchise tag, if they even have that much open cap space to start with, which I'm guessing they don't because they had to restructure guys prior to this season and push money off on next season to get under the cap.  They also have Arian Foster's contract to deal with.  Their defense performed well without him, they have a group of good young linebackers and JJ Watt had an impressive rookie campaign, so while I'm sure they want to re-sign Williams its not like it is going to kill them if they don't. 

Add that all up and there is a pretty good chance that he hits the open market.   

yes T.T has been given alot of credit for building & developing talent from within but lets keep in mind this...

Back in 1992 Ron Wolf not only developed players by drafting guys like Craig Newsome, Doug Evans ex... but mixed in other talents like Keith Jackson, Desmond Howard , Don Bebee  and created a complete TEAM . You CAN'T be afraid to bring in talent if you dont have it in a certaint area like DT, WR, S..... ( as an example ) .

Ted Thompson has developed a very talented team but lets face facts... we need a Pass rusher ( to help the front four get to opposing QB's ) , more help on the O-Line, a Safety ( in case Nick Collins isn't able to return to football ex.. ) as well as a few other things so he has to look in free agency and take a chance at someone  ( IF there out there ) but not break the bank  ( which can ultimatly determine a teams future if you get stuck with a roster for overspending ) .

I hope he's not cheap ( or stupid  ) and decides that we have enough on the roster to win now because in my opionion if we did we'd be in the NFC Championship, and not nearly bottom in Defense . The Packers need help and some changes will need to be made... its how he goes about it that'll determine if he can keep this team from making a step back!
 

Between this off season and next offseason the Packers will have to find ways to resign and/or extend the contracts of Jermichael Finley, Scott Wells, Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Clay Matthews, B.J. Raji and Tim Masthay, among others.  ALL of these guys have grossly underpaid in regards to their production and value to the team.  Thes guys along are going to put a squeeze on the salary cap, let alone signing a high priced free agent.  So which one do we let go in lieue of this free agent everybody seems to want?
There's no guarantee a high priced free agent will have a significant impact on the team anyways.  Look at the Eagles.  Look at the Redskins.  Look at the Vikings.  Can anybody actually name a difference making free agent player the Patriots, Ravens, 49ers or Giants have signed in the last year or two?  There probably is one or two, but I can't think of any.

Now, as far as building through the draft, the Packers should get a slew of compensatory picks for losing players like Cullen Jenkins, Nick Barnett, Daryn Colledge, Brandon Jackson and Donald Lee.  Brett Swain, Brady Poppinga, and a few others may factor in there as well.

According to Wikipedia (I know, I know), here is an explanation of how compensatory picks are determined:

Compensatory picks

In addition to the 32 picks in each round, there are a total of 32 picks awarded at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7. These picks, known as "compensatory picks," are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft (These are known as "supplemental compensatory selections").

Compensatory picks are awarded each year at the NFL annual meeting which is held at the end of March; typically, about three or four weeks before the draft.

That's why I threw guys like Poppinga and Swain in there.  Swain is still alive in the playoffs, and, though unlikely, could make some kind of post-season impact.  We could get additional consideration simply for losing the volume of free agents we did including Atari Bigby, Derrick Martin, Quinn Johnson, Korey Hall and Anthony Smith, who all caught on with another team in some capacity.

I believe I also read that the best a team can expect with compensatory picks is four third round picks.  I can't help but think the Packers should get very near to that.

Based on that, I can totally see Ted Thompson trading some of his regular picks to move up to get another first or second round pick.  He'll still have the quantity he desires, but can vastly improve the quality.  Would anyone complain if we traded James Jones and our regular third round pick to move up and get an additional first round pick?

Just my two cents.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.....

For every free agent signed, one guy on the current roster probably has to go.  It would be nice to get some free agents, but the price tag must be reasonable.  That means that TT will look at the so-called second tier free agents.  The examples of Jackson, Howard, and Beebe represent second-tier free agents.  If you remember, Jackson had some baggage, Howard was deemed too small to make an impact, and Beebe was a #3 wide receiver.  Hardly a big splash in free agency.  Rison was probably a bigger pick-up, but he was a midseason pick-up after being cut.  I beleive that Williams will be tagged and then renegotiate his contract.  It happens all the time.  Also, the Pack won't get compensatroy picks for Barnett or Lee because they were cut.  Compensatory picks are only for free agents lost if I'm not mistaken.  That means we'll get picks for College, Jenkins, and Jackson.  I do say be careful what you wish for because it may not be as rosey as it seems.