Derrick Rose Trade

Head to head, 9 catagory league with 12 teams.  I have two trades proposed to me:

1) Give: Jarret Jack and Martin Gortat
   Get: Derrick Rose

2) Give: Jarret Jack and Martin Gortat
    Get: Derrick Rose

Rose is an elite player but if I go through with these trades I can pretty much punt rebounds and blocks, although I pretty much am already.  Seems a little steep though for Rose, but I am new and open to opinions.  My team and his team are below.  I would be open if anyone has any counters they would like to throw out as well:

My TeamHis Team 

G Darren Collison(Ind - PG)G Derrick Rose
SG Jarrett Jack(NO - PG,SG)SG Jason Terry
G George HillG Jose Caldron  
SF Carmelo Anthony(NY - SF,PF)SF Wesly Mathews
PF Hedo TurkogluPF Tialgo Splitter
F Andre Iguodala(Phi - SG,SF)F Josh Smith
C Al Jefferson(Uta - PF,C) C Tyson Chandler
C Marcin Gortat(Pho - C)C Dalemburt Samaul
UtilChanning Frye(Pho - PF,C)Util Mario Chalmbers
UtilBoris Diaw(Cha - SF,PF,C)Util Andrew Bogut
BNManu Ginobili(SA - SG,SF)INJBN Marresse Speights
BN Brandon Bass(Bos - PF,C)BN Serge Ilbaka
BNTyrus Thomas(Cha - PF,C)BN OJ Mayo

First off, the two trades that you posted are the same.  I will give you three tidbits to consider that you may or may not be aware of.

1- Derrick Rose returned to the line-up yesterday, but current reports say that his toe injury could linger all season.  The take away is that he may miss games here and there, especially during busy weeks for the rest of the way.  His production will surely be elite when he plays, but how many games will he miss?  C.J. Watson is a good enough back-up that the Bulls will be allowed to be patient with their young superstar. 
2- Not sure when your fantasy playoff are, but in my leauge, the semifinals are the first week in April with the championship ending on April 15th.  The Bulls have 3 games in each of those weeks.  The only other team in the NBA with a 3-3 schedule in those weeks is the Hawks.  Most teams play 8 games during that stretch while the Grizzlies actually play 10.  Obviously you need to get to the playoffs to win in the playoffs, but this is something to consider.  The Suns play 4-4 in those weeks while the Hornets play 3-4. 

3- Jarrett Jack's value will clearly be affected by Eric Gordon.  There is simply no way he maintains the usage he is currently getting when Gordon returns.  When will Gordon come back?  He is out at least the next 3 weeks, but there is a real chance that he misses the rest of the season.  Nobody seems to know exactly what is going on with his knee. 

When I break down a trade, I always ask myself where each player would be drafted if your league were to start over and draft again right now. 

Derrick Rose's production is never in doubt, but his health issues would likely cause him to slip a little.  He would probably still go higher, but he should be taken late in the first round instead of early.  Gortat has been a stud and is giving you mid-second round value in 9 category leagues.  He would likely be taken in the early 3rd, maybe even late second.  Jack's production would warrant a 4th round selection, but can it keep up?  

All things considered, I think you are giving up too much given the risk associated with Rose.  This reeks of an owner trying to sell high because he doesn't want to deal with the issues listed above.  That being said, I would understand if you took the deal, but would urge you to try and get an under-performing Serge Ibaka back to make it a 2 for 2 deal.  If you make the other guy aware that you understand the risks associated with Rose, he might bite.   

He must be looking at this forum, the two trade offers were pulled and replaced with Jefferson + Jack for Rose + Ilbaka.  So I am assuming this deal you would take?  Would it warrent a counter with Gortat vs Jefferson?  I am essentially torn on who I would like to keep between the two.

Sorry for the formating, for whatever reason it was spaced out on my computer, I will try to edit it today.  And the second trade was Jefferson + Jack for Rose, sorry for that as well.

I think that Jefferson and Gortat are close enough to still accept this deal.  In fact, Gortat may actually be closer to what you need since he gets more rebounds and blocks without losing too much scoring.  I would take it and then look to trade Derrick Rose again after a couple monster weeks when nobody is thinking about the toe anymore.  It is risky, but a risk worth taking IMO. 

I havent accepted the trade yet, but I probably will this afternoon.  Hopefully Rose can post his elite numbers and help push my team into the playoffs as I am without Ginobli for a while longer.  Looks like I will punt the rebounds catagory and look for more assists and scoring.  I know other owners have been looking for elite C/PF/F and are willing to give up Jennings with a combo of DeRozan or Al Harrington, but dont know if that would be as big of an upgrade/upside as Rose.

I agree with Tlance.. you're not getting enough for Rose.  I recently traded Rose, Tyreke Evans, and Spencer Hawes for Rubio, Josh Smith, and Marc Gasol.  Aim high like me :)

Also I need help on trade advice.  I have Josh Smith and Chris Bosh. Trade J Smith for Gallinari? or trade JSmith/Bosh for Ryan Anderson/Carmelo Anthony?

Nickypaps,

Can't really give you good advise without knowing the format.  Josh Smith's value in a points league is totally different than in a category based league.  Same goes for Ryan Anderson. 

While I do not disagree with any of the suggestions here, I would find it very hard to make this decision in a bubble. What I mean is that I would need to consider what my team needs. What's your record cat by cat... what categories do you normally win and which do you normally lose?

If I were to consider this without knowing category strengths and weaknesses, then I would be inclined want Rose because he has elite level production(great %'s, great scoring, assists, 3's, steals...as the previous poster mentioned). As far as which to offer, Gortat or Jefferson, Jefferson has better name recognition and should command slightly more in a trade, while Gortat has slightly better production overall (especially lately). But I would also be a bit hesitant to break those 2 guys up. Those 2 make a great big man core in that they do what you expect from a big (rebs, blocks, fg%), but they are also above average in cats that bigs are not so great in (scoring, ft%). Think about what your teams fg% would be with those 2 guys minus a chucker like Melo...(doesn't Gortat still lead the league in fg%, while averaging over 20ppg the last 10 games?)

The one thing I always consider is trading away scoring because it seems to always be the most expensive cat to "buy" but it still only accounts for 1/9th of the cats you need to win, so I feel (my opinion) that you can usually get the most value by trading away scoring. That is also because I don't aim for scorers after the 4th round on draft day. Just something to consider if your team is built that way...

When looking at his team, for some reason guys like Calderon, Dalembert, Bogut (I know he's hurt) and Chandler stand out as obvious targets that can be had at a discount when considering their current production. These are guys that are top ranked in at least 1 category while still making significant contributions to other categories. Also, considering that someone like Dalembert was possibly snagged off of waivers, it might reduce his perceived value a bit. If he wants Jefferson and Jack then why not see if you can maneuver Dalembert or Calderon into the deal. See if they can be had if you include someone else (Manu maybe, remember that with the compressed schedules he might be sitting a lot of back to back games especially if SA locks up a playoff spot)... you never know. I have to say that I am not sure what the market is for Dalembert or Calderon but I like Calderon for assists better than Jack and you don't have to worry about the Gordon situaiton anymore while still gaining in assists. Dalembert would also fill in the rebound and block hole left by trading Jefferson so it wouldn't as big of a hit in those categories.

In closing, it would be hard to make a definitive suggestion for a trade with great confidence without knowing how you compare to the rest of the league category by category, or at least generally speaking, but that being said... having Rose on the roster leaves you with a warm tingly feeling inside, helps you sleep just a little better...

You do not want DeRozan. I mentioned before that it would be hard to break up a combo like Jefferson Gortat because they give you QUALITY scoring. What I mean is that they score a lot and at a high FG%. DeRozan is a chucker like Melo (never met a shot he didn't like) and if you pair him with Melo you will probably be bottom of the league in FG%. I am not saying that low % guys are useless, some of them are great but they would have to contribute significantly to other stats for me to justify starting them (think d-will or jennings). Percentage cats are hard to find for several reasons I won't get into, but they are what make players like Kobe so valuable. Kobe scores a lot so that 45% fg and 84% ft are high impact percentages that if paired with the right guys can give you a high % baseline that other guys can slightly contribute to or slightly take away from.

dont do it

i would atleast have to have melo scorer for scorer

Below are my win/loss by catagory
FG%          FT%           3PTM        PTS        REB         AST         ST          BLK         TO2-2           2-2              4-0         1-3         1-3         3-1          2-2         1-2-1      2-2

Melo has been a huge drain on fg% as well as turnovers, but has boosted my ft% since he shoots a ton of them and is well above average as well as helps my 3PTM, PTS, AST, and ST.  The one game I lost in AST was to the leader in the league for assists.  Based on this info do you think there are people I should target in a trade offer?  I know a couple of teams have been interested in Melo, but I have been underwhelmed with the offers.  I want to thank everyone for their input again, I know it can be frustrating to help a newbie but I do appreciate it.

I am the one who would be getting Rose and trading away Jack and Jefferson

FG% 2-2 
FT% 2-2
3PTM 4-0 
PTS  1-3
REB 1-3
AST  3-1
ST  2-2       
BLK 1-2-1      
TO 2-2

Redid the stats, hopefully this turns out better than the last formating did
                                                                    

That clears up the picture a bit... what would be the most helpful, would be your week to week against all teams in your league. Having played four games, and therefore 4 teams, doesn't give a complete picture (how do we know that those 4 teams are representative of your league's average thresholds for dominance in a certain category). Let me explain what my way of looking at it would be:

First let me say that while I have been playing fantasy BBall (football, baseball and hockey too (yeah, I said it... hockey)) for several years (prob 5-6 for bball) I do not consider myself an expert in any way. In fact, I would go on to say that in many respects I am just as much a "noob" as most people in many respects. So anything I mention here is just to give my perspective... maybe you walk away with something you like/agree with, maybe you do not.

With that out of the way... Assuming you use CBS for your league, I would goto the "Stats" tab and create a report for "Team Totals" to give yourself a very general picture of where you stand in every category (for more detail, you can goto "Live Scoring" and review how you would have faired week-to-week against every team. If certain categories keep coming up as won or lost, make a note of it). Remeber, though, take into account when certain high impact trades or waiver acquisitions were made and change the time frame in the options to only include the most relevant time frame. So, for example, if a blockbuster trade went down last week that totally changes the face of 2 teams, then set the "Interval" to "Last 7" (if you do use "Last 7" try to also see "Last 14" and "Last 21" just to normalize the numbers, because "last 7" is a small sample size and therefore easy to get skewed by one or two fluke performances) to give yourself a more accurate picture. Find your categories that you are hopelessly low in, as well as which ones you are dominant in (make a note of how dominant as well to figure out if you can afford to trade from that category). This process will give you the clearest picture of where you stand (it will not account for some of the underperformers which have just started coming to life though, you have to keep that in mind yourself).

I understand that making a trade is never that clear cut, different players bring different combinations of stats to the table. So telling you to trade for one cat or trade away another is a very simplistic approach, but I am sure you have a general idea of which player brings what to your team... Now, if I were to go off of the 4 game records you posted, (it may turn out you played 3 of the highest point-scoring teams in your league so maybe you are not hopelessly low in scoring, or maybe you only lost by a few points each week so the following may not be true) I would assume that you are hopelessly low in scoring. I would automatically start shopping Melo and give up on scoring... Remeber, there are 9 cats but you only need to win 5. Or maybe it turns out that you are hopelessly low in rebounds (again, maybe you just happened to play top 3 rebounding teams or just lost by a few rebounds each week so the following would not apply), then shopping my highest market value rebounder (probably Jefferson) might make sense.

Points and rebounds are much easier to assess then something like steals, 3's, blocks and TO (I personally think TO is a wildcard stat, if your players is doing very well that means he has the ball alot, therefore he is in a position to turn it over more, so I don't think you can really trade for that stat definitively). What I mean is that there are very good (maybe even borderline dominant) 3's, steals or blocks guys on waivers right now... but you wouldn't start them. For example: Morrow and Meeks are probably averaging about 2 3's a game, but they do not do enough in other categories to qualify as a starter. Toney Allen is probably a top 5 steals guy at over 2 a game... but you wouldn't start him cause he hurts you in other categories. These guys are one trick ponies. What you will find is that if you trade for a guy that is dominant in steals while being very good in 1 or 2 other cats other than scoring... he can probably be had for a great "price" from most owners while filling in the stats you need. I always found that trading away scoring has had the best results for me. The way I rationalize this large increase in value received when trading scoring for other stats is this... Basketball teams win games by scoring, scoring makes highlight reels, scoring highlights make sportscenter and get replayed all week. People see scoring and are taught to value it by the amount of coverage it gets, it is the most relevant statistic in basketball and therefore the most dominant statistic in basketball. In category (unlike point-assigned) fantasy basketball, however, it is not a dominant category, it is just 1 of 9 and just as important as a category like low turnovers or 3's made. If scoring is in fact an unsalvageable cat for your team then keep this in mind...

Timing is also key... trading for Rubio 2 weeks ago would have been much easier than trading for him now, even though he was posting similar numbers then. The reason is, in my mind, all the additional coverage he has gotten. All it takes is one article on a guy on your league's home page to make his asking price that much higher.

Well it seems that after typing for 15 minutes, this post has quickly devolved into a general overview on how I value trades. Since I cannot tell how useful you find this, I will stop here and let you either ask about something specific or realize that I have come way off base with this post. Feel free to ask away if any of this interests you... believe it or not I actually love this stuff.

Good Luck

And I haven't even touched on scarcity of categories...

Although here's a great article on it...<br /><br />http://sports.espn.go.com/fantas
y/basketball/fba/story?page=hardcorenba120126<br />

First off I would like to thank you for taking the time for writing that all out, it was very helpful as someone new to fantasy basketball explaining some of the reasoning around trades.  I may have blown some off earlier in the season that would of made sense with that line of reasoning.  

Looking at the breakdown my worst stats are: steals (last place 12/12), rebounds (8/12), and pts (8/12)

My best catagories are 3PTM (1/12) and Assits (2/12) 

I am pretty much in the middle in all the other catagories (between 5-8).  If I can trade Anthony for someone that helps in fg% and ft%, blocks, or rebounds it should greatly improve my team.  I may try to target a Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, Derron Wiliams, and would be open to any other suggestions.  Would a Melo/Ginobli combo be enough to get any of those people? 

I have Ilbaka and Rose heading my way (unless the trade gets vetoed) so hopefully my blocks, assists, 3ptm, stls go up.  This is a money league so hopefully the integrity high and people wont veto just to veto.

I hate to keep disagreeing with posters trying to help out, but now is not the time to trade Carmelo Anthony.  There are 3 reasons why the timing is wrong here.

1- You just completed a big trade (hopefully), so it is a good idea to let the dust settle for a couple weeks and see where your team is.  You strengths and weaknesses may change.

2- Melo is currently at a serious low point in terms of his value.  He is playing through multiple injuries and playing poorly.  He was a top 10 player and MVP candidate a week and a half ago and has since fallen to #40 in value for 9 category leagues because of his dismal play.  If you trade him now, you get nowhere close to top dollar and would probably have to give up a player like Manu just to return a player who is really comparable to Melo under normal circumstances. 

Understand that you gained in the Derrick Rose trade because his owner freaked out and sold at a low point.  Don't make that mistake with Melo.  You need to buy low and sell in fantasy trades. 

3-  The claim that Melo will kill your Fg% is a little misleading.  Melo has killed your FG% for the past 2 weeks, but he is a career 45.7% shooter.  That is not great by any stretch, but we aren't talking category killer either.  Sure he is a gunner, but he is capable of generating enough easy buckets for himself to even out the percentages.  When Melo gets healthy, the % will rise again.  Be patient and resist the urge to dump him now. 

If you decide in a couple weeks that you are still weak in points and want to dump them, then fine.  I only urge you to see what you have first and make sure you sell high like you did with Jarrett Jack rather than selling low like you would do with Melo. 

Also, you might want to grab Drew Gooden or Ilyasova for 1 of your fringe players.  Andrew Bogut has a fractured ankle and will be out awhile, maybe to the whole season.  Both these guys stand to see a boost.  Hopefully you still have Tyrus Thomas after his ridiculous line last night.