Derrick Rose Trade

Also, Chris Bosh is not someone you should target now.  His numbers have been inflated due to the absence of Dwyane Wade.  Once the Heat hit full strength again, his numbers will likely be a lot closer to last season's disappointment than this year's breakout.  Melo is significantly better long term than Bosh. 

I was not aware that you had already accepted that trade and I was working from the knowledge of your pre-trade roster. With that in mind, I completely agree with Tlance, definately take at least 1 if not 2 scoring periods to see what you have. He is also correct about waiting to sell high, I must admit Melo is someone I usually avoid because, come draft day, he is usually too "expensive" for reasons I have mentioned in my previous post, and come trade time, I am usually "selling" points. I am ignorant when it comes to his career stat line, so it seems we have both learned something here.
Secondly, I must admit that in my rambling I did not take the time to properly explain myself. In creating the "trading of points" scenario, I was simply trying to make a point through example and I foolishly threw in a player I do not have great knowledge about (Melo) along with players I know very well (Rubio, Gortat, Jefferson, etc.). When I mentioned Melo in a trade, I was using the scenario where you looked into the numbers and points was in fact an area of great weakness. That being the case, Melo jumped out at me when I looked at your roster, as being an obvious scorer who would command a high price. But with Tlance's well made point, along with the fact that I now know that the Rose trade was executed, you should definately hold off to see what you have and, if you have confidence in his ability to become a better "quality" scorer (45-46% is certainly above average), then you should wait to see if his value can increase before a trade. Although, with the acquisition of Rose, I can only imagine that your scoring rank should increase.

My post was more about methods of evaluation rather than "you should trade this guy for that guy". I like that trade for your team though, especially if it was Jefferson that you traded (huge fan of what Gortat does). Also, for those defensive stats, keep your eye on James Johnson now that Bargniani re-aggravated his injury. Best of Luck.

Oh, and Tlance, thanks for the heads up on Bogut (I was able to snag Gooden in 1 league), and the quick educaiton on Melo. Although, I must say, I still am not a fan of what he does compared to what he costs.

OG,

I agree with you on many points about Carmelo Anthony.  He is probably the most overrated player in the NBA because of his unwillingness to defend and his shot selection.  I generally try to avoid him in category leagues also, but he did fall to me at the end of the second round in one league and I simply couldn't avoid it.  That being said though, I will likely hold on to him in that league unless I can somehow negotiate a 2 for 1 for Kevin Durant.  Again though, that deal has no chance until Melo returns to form. 

Also, you really need to be careful if you are punting points because secondary stats stats tend to follow points in a lot of cases.  You really need a well constructed roster to make it work.  Players like Gortat, Rubio Rondo and Iguodala are ideal.  Given the make-up of your team now with Melo and Derrick Rose, points should end up being a strength.

I agree with you for the most part about being careful with punting points. There are definately things that need to be accounted for... like when you say secondary stats, I imagine you mean fg% ft% and on a much lower level, although there is only the loosest of association with scoring, assists (you have to present somewhat of a scoring threat to effectively draw coverage and create open shots for others). But I also find that (again generally speaking) trading away scoring makes %'s easier to manipulate because the total amount of shots taken is less and considering that these %s are ratios with shots taken as the denominator it only takes a couple of high %/medium volume guys to make a large impact if the denominator is lower. That is, indirectly, what I was referring to when I mentioned "baselining" your teams %s in my earlier post.

I have to admit, his career 45-46% fg% makes melo a bit more attractive if he can also keep up his higher than normal assist rate...

Got offered McGee&John Wall for Derrick Rose&Elton Brand. 

I lack in steals, blocks and threes. I figure i would gain in both blocks and steals but what do you guys think, given rose's current status? 

I also have to mention that while it would seem like he should increase in points, it is still unclear of how much he will actually net if he ended up trading Jack and Jefferson. I don't believe Jack can keep up his current scoring pace, along with Gordon looming, but the fact remains the he is currently scoring and contributing to his teams weekly point totals in a significant way considering recent performance. When you combine that with another good scorer in Jefferson you are talking about trading away roughly 35ppg (jack is about 17ppg and Jefferson is about 18ppg), while getting back maybe 30ppg (rose is about 22ppg and ibaka is about 7-8ppg). It would seem, at a glance, that he would actually be losing some points out of the deal at this stage. It could def be argued, however, that getting rid of jack now would mean a long term improvement in points if Gordon does in fact come back, but it would still leave him at or below his current level of scoring. I still like the fact he gets an elite level performer without having to give up an elite level performer (although "big dirty al" jefferson could very well be considered elite considering he is the whole package for a big man), while also getting an elite shot blocking with upside in Ibaka.

I just noticed your previous post about considering some older trades based on this line of thinking, and although you probably know this already, I feel like I have to mention it... There are 2 main ways to evaluate a trade, how it affects your teams totals, and how it looks in a bubble (players offered for players received without the effect on teams). In my opinion the value of a player to your team is what I would call "concealed" value in that only you should know or care about that value, while the way a trade should really be judged in public is by the "perceived" value, in that is what the league will see and that is what should matter to the other team. So if a trade makes sense for you but the percieved value shows you should be getting a bit more... ask for more.

For example, I was thrown into an aution draft roto league an hour after the draft started because a freind couldn't make it. The computer auto-bid on 5 players that left me with less than $6 (out of a 200 budget) to fill out the the remaining 8 roster spaces. I had Kobe, Wade, Rondo, Jefferson and Millsap as the main guys, surrounded by the cheapest value I could afford (guys like Teague and Varejao). I had to hit the waivers and trade market hard to avoid having to start guys like Kaman. I quickly realized that my obvious trading chip would probably be Kobe because his string of 40+ point games and his name recognition would probably net me greater value than his probable statistical contribution the rest of the season (highly unlikely that someone finishes with that kind of produciton at that age in a compressed season with an injury to a shooting wrist). My decision on Kobe was this... Wade's peripheral stats (close to 2 steals and 2 block a game from the guard position and a career 49% fg% while scoring 20+ppg and his injury concern along with underperforming in scoring around that time) were too valuable yet were probably not valued as such by other teams. Jefferson was the next highest sought after guy on the roster, but I valued his peripherals highly as they complimented my teams strong suits and gave me base I could build on relatively cheaply (blocks fg% rebs). Kobe was mostly a scorer, although he was also a great rebounder for a guard and had great assist number for a non-point-guard, but he also has great %'s. Looking at my lineup, with guys like Rondo and Wade plus the rest of the scrub brigade, I was probably going to be middle of the pack in FT% if I kept Kobe and added another FT% guy (I was bottom of the pack at the time), so Kobe kind of stood out at me. After fielding and sending out many offers I settled on Dwight Howard and Joe Johnson (this was the morning following the horford injury) for Kobe and Millsap, over trades that were centered around the likes Josh Smith plus a role-player (with cats I needed) or Wall and Batum or Felton and Nene. At the time I thought Joe Johnson was underperforming and therefore undervalued, something I was hoping the horford injury would change (luckily it did), so if he picked it up I could have a potential 24ppg/5rpg/5apg guy in my hands, essentially a mini-Kobe plus an elite rebounder/blocker/fg%/scorer in Howard... it was a no-brainer for me. Although I have to mention, with favors in the doghouse and Jefferson injured, Millsap has been killing it. But who knows when the favors love affair sparks back up...

The point (one that I probably did a poor job of illustrating) is that I had other trades that made more sense for my team statistically speaking (I could've probably used felton and nene's stats more and wouldn't have needed to give up millsap, who I like a lot) when considering my needs, but this trade left me with more value and therefore more options should I need to make another trade (and I do need to make another trade).

I do have an owner that seems to really want Ginobli from me, he has sent roughly 8 trades to me in 2 weeks that all have included him.  I listed his team below and would be open to any suggestions for possible trades:

Dwane Wade
Chauncey Billups
Paul Pierce
LaMarcus Aldridge
Carlos Boozer
Chris Bosh
Spencer Hawes
Ray Allen
Andre Miller
Leandro Barbosa
Linas Kleoza
Anthony Morrow

I havent been to impressed with his trades (the last one was Billups, Miller, and Barbosa for Frye an Ginobili) but I also am not tied to anyone on my team.

Personally, I do not like wall as his stats currently stand. I also am not very familiar with his performance this year. Although he only has a limited time in the league and is still young, he has proven to have very low fg% and is not consistent enough in other cats besides steals, he has been on a hot streak lately, though. What gets me about him is that his number are down this year, but I really wouldn't pay too much to that given how this season has negatively impacted several other players as well. You would kind of be paying for the upside people have been waiting to see (and that he has shown at times). The deciding factor, in my opinion, comes down to a saying that I have heard over the years... the guy getting the best player is usually getting the better end of the deal.

McGee is more of an elite role-player if that makes sense... elite blocks, great (but not elite) boards, low scoring and therefore relatively low-impact percentages while contributing in steals (almost 1 a game).

The other thing to consider, as Tlance pointed out, is timing. You probably want to be on the buying end for Rose right now as his value is lower than normal, while Wall's hot streak would prob have him at a relatively high value (as would be evidenced by seeing people trade for him in the past week in 2 of my leagues).

I would only pull that trade if I were confident that Wall would meet the high expectation people put on him since draft day. If I felt that wall was only a small step down from Rose, then I would consider it. I do have to say this though, I do not know anything about Brand other than his average numbers this year so I cannot really tell how he would effect this trade.

Ginobili is my kind of fantasy player, great at some things but not bad at anything. He contributes in hard to find cats like 3's and steals while pouring in points and assists. Love the guy... BUT, I have questions. Injury aside (I cannot predict how it will effect his return) the Spurs love sitting their vets in back to back games and they have the depth to do so. They especially love doing this in the most important part of the fantasy year... fantasy playoff time. They lock up a seeding they are comfortable with and march out the B squad just enough to fudge up his numbers and make you question whether to start him when it's money time for your fantasy team.
Maybe I'm just a bit salty of having him throw the wrench in my playoff plans in the past, and maybe I am just exaggerating because I have had this negative experience. Sooo, I would suggest this, if someone gives you anything close to healthy Ginobili value in a trade, and they are willing to put up with the risk of his injury and SA's treatment of vets with kid-gloves by sitting them then take it and run.

I would normally try to identify undervalued guys on his roster, but I have to be honest in saying that I am not too familiar with a lot of his guys. Maybe targeting Boozer seeing as he's having a down year (but has picked it up lately), but I don't think he can be had straight up right now for Manu. Hey, maybe you can swing some kind of wade deal by offering him a combo package. Wade, Melo and Rose would be a nasty guard combo, and you can always play the Wade injury card to the Manu injury card. Even if Melo needs to be sent to make that happen, I love what wade does when healthy. Plus even if Melo is undervalued right now, one could argue that Wade is too. To be honest, though, I'm just spitballing here and I would have to really sit down and look at it... Maybe this evening.

In the meantime it wouldn't hurt to ask him what he would want in return...

I sent an email out to see what he would want for wade or booozer but didnt get a response back, only another offer of Ginobli, frye, and igudala for boozer, miller, barbosa, and morrow which I declined.  I countered with wade and morrow for igudala, ginobli, and frye...we will see what happens.  

Don't get too carried away with trading right now.  This latest deal may turn out to be pure genius in terms of timing, because it looks like Serge Ibaka may be earning more minutes from Scott Brooks.  If he plays 35 minutes, he is a top 25 player no question, maybe even better than that.

When I look at your core group, I see a championship calibur team.  All you need is health and a couple minor tweaks off of the free agent list to be really good.  If we ignore percentages and TOs for a minute and assume health, this is what your core can do when compared to other players at their position:

Derrick Rose- Top 5 overall player- elite scoring, plus rebounds, plus assists, plus blocks, plus threes
Carmelo Anthony- Top 15 player- elite scoring, plus rebounds, plus assists, plus threes
Marcin Gortat- Top 20 player- plus scoring, elite rebounds, plus blocks
Andre Iguodala- Top 25 player- plus rebounds, elite assists, elite steals, plus blocks, plus threes
Manu Ginobili- Top 20 player- plus scoring, plus assists, elite steals, elite threes
Serge Ibaka- top 25 player- plus rebounding, elite blocks

When you put this together, you have elite contributers in every category and enough players who chip in.  I would be shocked if there was another owner in your league who could boast 6 top 25 players with such a diverse array of skill sets.  This is an impressive core.  Keep it together and see what they can do.  Look to build via free agency and minor trades involving roll players.  You have some nice pieces in addition to your core group.   

Is Diaw, Frye, or Jason Richardson worth dropping?  I am struggling with dropping any of these three as they are all on the cusp of doing well, I want to pick up Fields as he is actually heating back up and my crack the starting lineup even with Baron coming back soon.

I agree that Landry Fields should be owned.  Of those players, all three have upside, but Jason Richardson probably has the least of the three.  He is getting up there in years and seems to have lost his explosiveness.  He is basically just a 3 point specialist now, but since he isn't getting many clean looks from three, it is hard to see him living up to last year's production. 

Teams have quickly learned that the way to beat the Magic is to avoid double teaming Howard and to make sure their role players don't get clean looks.  This is bad news for Jason Richardson and Jameer Nelson.

Boris Diaw would be the next drop, but he still has obvious upside given his production the first two weeks, and the Bobcats seem to be unsure which way they need to go with their frontcourt.  Same goes for Channing Frye and the Suns who are still trying to figure things out.  Both players make good bench stashes right now.  

Obviously, if someone emerges that you need to grab, then don't feel obligated to keep either.  Frye's upside is still great, but his role at the moment will not allow that upside to come through.  Hold if you can, but don't let yourself miss out on a potential difference maker while waiting for him to turn around.

Chris Kaman is another guy who could be making his way toward the cut list with a rapidly decreasing role and possible impending trade.  If he is traded, his role may increase, but there are not many teams with weaker frontcourts than the Hornets.  It is hard to envision him getting more time elsewhere unless he was dealt to the ideal team, like the Hawks. 
   

First off, thanks for the response.

I've yet to sign off on the trade but the following is worth noting.

In this compressed schedule i'm worried that Rose would rest if given the opportunity because Chicago's goal is the playoffs.

Second, with me lacking in blocks, there seems to be only a handful of guys who can "win" you the block categorie. So my reason would be that i would certenly lose points, fg, ft% by giving away rose but would gain block,steals, rebounds.