Off-season free agent acquisitions to pursue

When you look back at the 2011 Packers, it's actually pretty amazing that they managed to win 15 games with all of their flaws. They had zero running game, tons of unacceptable dropped passes, and one of the worst defenses in the league. With Aaron Rodgers, this team will be a consistent contender and I think the key to them being prepared to make another Super Bowl run in 2012 is signing a couple low key role players.

RB, Mike Tolbert

With Ryan Grant potentially on the move and this team's poor short-yardage performances, Tolbert would be a great addition. He has 19 touchdowns while averaging above 4.0 YPC with 67 first downs. He's a powerful runner that gets the job done and isn't afraid to do the dirty work. Not to mention a solid blocker and receiver. With Tolbert's ability to consistently convert short-yardage situations, our offense will be even better. We'd have the ability to close a game with our rushing attack and it also opens up the play action even more.

DE, Calais Campbell

With the loss of Cullen Jenkins and injury woes for Mike Neal, defensive end was a huge weakness on this team. Campbell is 300 lbs. so he's big enough to fit on our defensive line. He hacks 21 sacks over the past three seasons and put up a career-high 72 tackles in 2011. I think he could significantly upgrade the productivity from this position.

I know our GM is Ted Thompson and he's known for using the draft, rather than free-agency to build a team, but he has still made decent moves (Woodson, Pickett, Green). I think these few moves combined with a solid draft and this team is Super Bowl bound once more.

I think Those 2 are good players as well.  I would love to see Campbell in the green and gold, but I think he will make a lot of money next year and I don't think TT will be willing to pay what he wants.  As for Tolbert, he would fit perfect in our offense.  That signing would make me very excited.  I hope you're right on both accounts, but I think Campbell will cost too much.

I would definitely go hard after Calais Campbel. I would have no problem with a 5 year $45M deal, with a $10M bonus.

I would have no problem with a 5 year $45M deal, with a $10M bonus.

Maybe you wouldn't, but I seriously believe Ted Thompson will 

He has 19 touchdowns while averaging above 4.0 YPC with 67 first downs.

Over the past two seasons.

He hacks 21 sacks

Has*... sorry, I was a little out of it when I was writing this.

I know he's old but I still wouldn't mind signing London Fletcher to a one year contract.He played at a very high level last season and would provide leadership in the locker room.Leadership is vital because the Packers will need to draft heavily to the defense this year and will be looking at a very young unit next year (hopefully).Fletcher can provide some heat from the inside for a year or two and is the kind of player who could join the coaching staff once he is done playing.

Remember the last 45 year old LB we signed? Hardy Nickerson? What did he have like 40 tackles?

I think we should draft the best pass-rusher available at the time, defensive end or outside linebacker. Then draft a runningback and repeat until the 4th round. Obviously the injuries to Nick Collins and Frank Zombo hurt this team, but this defense has to re-establish getting to the quarterback a high percentage of the time. We need another dominant pass-rushing force outside of Clay Matthews because teams will continue to just double, sometimes even triple team him.

Campbell doesn't have very many peers as a 3-4 5 tech, maybe only Justin Smith, so he is likely to get an enormous contract that won't fit into what the Packers can do cap-wise.  Better off thinking along the lines of a Kendall Langford or Jason Jones at the DE spot. 

I wouldn't mind having a bowling ball like runner on the team for 3rd and short and goaline situations but I'm not sure McCarthy would utilize a player of Tolbert's skill set, he passes the ball almost 70% of the time in those situations, always has and probably always will.     

Any love for Anthony Spencer?  The Cowboys seem disapointed in him because of his high draft status but the guy is an experienced 3-4 outside linebacker that has 17 sacks and 8 forced fumbles the last 3 seasons, itsn't too old(28) and might not cost too much.   

Spencer has good size, something the Packers lack big time opposite Clay. No more 220-235LB LBs anymore. Need guys that have some beef and can rush the passer.

I hate to be Davey Downer here, but we're only 6.5 mil under the cap. AJ Hawk isn't going anywhere(For those of you who think he's overrated), Wells needs a new deal and then barring a significant trade(or two), we'll be signing at least 9 draft picks and about a dozen other players to futures contracts.


This year, we won't do anything in FA not because Ted has an allergic reaction, but because we can't afford to.

Rookie contracts will have little impact on the cap; they're almost replacement salaries for the guys we already employ that will be gone considering our draft spots. And there are guys like Clifton, Grant, Collins, Driver and more likely retiring or getting cut. And Hawk at $6+ per year is not exactly safe IMO. Plus Woodson will probably have to restructure. GB won't be near the leaders in open space but they will have room to make moves.

Chad Clifton-5,250,000 base, 0 prorated bonus, 453,125 misc. bonus, cap savings=5,703,125

Donald Driver-2,600,000 base, 0 prorated bonus, 3,000,000 misc. bonus, cap savings=5,600,000

Thats 11.3 million right there.

Can't cut Hawk, the remainder of his prorated signing bonus, 6.4 million, is higher than his base salary and roster bonus, 4.95 million total, so it would cost them 1.45 million in dead cap space, maybe they could ask him to move some of his 4.4 million base salary to next year.

If Collins can't play it opens up 3,450,000, but that wouldn't be a help as it leaves a gaping hole to fill. 

Ryan Pickett has a 5,375,000 cap number with a 4,500,000 base salary, Woodson has an 11,500,000 cap number with a 6,500,000 base salary, a 4,000,000 roster bonus due in April, and a 1,000,000 bonus based on games played at seasons end, so both could be candidates to restructure to open up some room. 

As I noted in a couple of other posts as have others, the Packers won't have the cap room to be major players on the free agent market because they have to sign Wells, Finley, and the rookies, but if they do some tinkering they should have enough space to add a decent player or two, it just isn't going to be guys like Calais Campbell or Mario Williams, thats for sure, but they aren't paralyzed by the cap either. 

  

Dorsey, hit the nail on the head so to speak. Also not sure but I do not see them signing Jermichael Finley, I think TT plans to use the Tag on him, see what he does and go from there.

Think I remeber reading something around week 10 that the Packers plan to Franchise tag Finley.

Nice job Dorsey of research.

Your information underlines the reality that team roster financials are complicated and dynamic.  The fact that they change from year to year is one thing, the reality that they are based on human performance is another.  It may look like a good thing on paper until a guy stops performing or the team needs change.  It can get pretty messy in a hurry.  Even perennial allstars like Charles Woodson represent a complication.  How much can you steal from the future to bank on the present.  Woodson didn't play as well this year as his contract demands but we are hoping that he can still be a leader in the secondary.  If we can't afford a pass rush, paying Woodson big money isn't going to translate into a Super Bowl defense.  Very complicated indeed.

I, like most, would love to see Calais Campbell in a Packer uniform and even if it takes a big deal it should be done.  If we could sign him and then draft someone like Courtney Upshaw as a pass rusher then I think we have gone a long way in shoring up the defense.  I doubt it will happen, but if it does I think it could go down as one of the Packers more important free agent acquisitions for the past number of years.

I am not as big a Mike Tolbert fan as others, if we get him for a good deal maybe, but I think the short yardage stuff is more a matter of the line than it is the backs and I don't see Tolbert making that big of a defference.

I was reading the following on one of the Packers blogs from a Q&A session one of the beat writers had.  I've cherry picked several of the questions we have ourselves. 

Q: Will DJ Smith get a look at AJ Hawks Job?
A: I have to think he'll get a strong look. Hawk didn't play well and is due $4.7 million in bonus and salary next season. The signing bonus acceleration would be significant -- he received an $8 million bonus last year -- so $6.4 million would accelerate. That's a $1.7 million net loss on cap, not bad, but the cap is reportedly going to stay flat this year. Those are the decisions they'll make in the next few weeks. Wouldn't be surprised if they cut Hawk but haven't heard that's going to happen. Maybe they'd bring him to camp and then if Smith is going to be the starter, they could cut Hawk at the end of camp.  

Q:  say Driver,Grant,Lee,Bush,Flynn,Wynn,Hawk,Peprah are gone next year, Hawk costs too much for production, will he renegogiate down? 
A: Maybe Hawk would negotiate down, that's a possibility, we'll see. Agree with most of the names up there, but maybe Bush will be back, don't know if other teams consider him a viable nickel corner.

Q:  TT can't depend on the draft and current players only to fix what ails this team; can he?
A: I'm sure he will. Maybe he'll try to find a bargain free agent or two for help, but he has some big contract extensions coming up in the next couple years: Rodgers, Matthews, Raji, Jennings. That's some big money, especially Rodgers and Matthews. And as we all know, Thompson doesn't like to spend on FA. He did it with Woodson and Pickett, but that was in '06 when he was still building a roster. I wouldn't bet on him signing any FAs of note this year -- maybe he will, but I'd bet heavily against it.

Q:  Following up on your answer about Hawk, don't you think they'd try to trade him instead of flat out cutting him? 
A: Nobody's going to want to take on that contract, so I don't see how they'd find a trade partner. 

I forgot to add.....cutting Charlie Peprah opens 1,150,000. Anybody disagree with that one, I didn't think so..... 11.3(Clifton and Driver) +1.1(Peprah)+6.5(projected available cap space based on cap staying flat)=hypothetically talking about 18.9 million in cap space, and the key word is hypothetically.  

Finley franchise tag number-5.5 million

Scott Wells......If I'm not mistaken Ryan Kalil was the most recent center to sign a big contract and it was the largest contract to a center of all time, his total contract averages 8.1 million per season, now when they say "average per season" they are talking about everything not just the base salary, the signing bonus and any future roster bonuses or performance bonuses are calculated as well, inevitably most players aren't going to end up seeing all of that money for various reasons.  His contract is structured in a way in which it was a 4 million cap hit in its first season(this past season), and 4.5 million next year.  Guys like Jeff Saturday, Dominic Raiola, Matt Birk are in the 4-5 million per range.  The other big one I looked up was Nick Mangold, he signed a new contract in 2010 that averaged 7.1 million, the cap hit the first season was 8.1, 2011 it was 4.8 and 2012 it will be 4.8(there was a huge supercede bonus in 2011 he didn't earn because he didn't suffer a serious injury, I found that getting thrown in the contract to be kinda interesting). So I guess if they re-sign Wells we are talking somewhere between 4 and 7 million in cap space this season.

I'd be totally guessing at a number for the Packers rookie salary cap, it is based on the number of picks as well as how high the picks are, so it depends on what compensation picks they get and what trades they make on draft day, the last number I can find is 3.9 million for the 7 guys they drafted in 2010, I can't find last years number which really irritates the hell out of me because the rules changed some with the new CBA, we're prolly talking anywhere from 4-6 million depending on what happens but don't quote me on that.   I do know that the 8 rookies that made the roster or ended up on IR in 2011 added up to 4.3 million in cap space, based on where Schlauderaff and Elmore got drafted about another 750-800,000 for both, so about 5 million that they used on the rookie salary cap last year but that doesn't answer my question about how much they could have used.

Jarret Bush?  Had to mention it, he comes into the equation.   

As far as undrafted free agents and "futures" and that stuff, keep in mind only the top 51 players cap numbers count against the salary cap untill the season starts. 

Add that all up and it goes back to what I said before, they could sign a mid-tier free agent or if they restructure a couple of guys maybe two, but they aren't going to have the cap room to go off signing Campbell or Williams or anything like that.   

2013 free agents- Greg Jennings, TJ Lang .... Brett Goode, Tim Mathsay, and Sam Shields are restricted(3-year). 

2014-Clay Matthews, BJ Raji, Jones, Kuhn, Starks, Burnett, Newhouse,

2015-Aaron Rodgers, Brian Bulaga, Jordy Nelson, Cobb, Bishop, Williams, Sherrod

I personally think it's a long shot, but Campbell isn't as untouchable as many are stating.  Both of us (AZ and GB) have needs that match....AZ needs offense and GB needs D.  Campbell, if I'm not mistaken, is likely to be extended or franchised, so is Finley, why not make a trade?  This is the only way I could see TT get a guy like him.  If he doesn't have to fight with the open market for a guy, I can see him go after it....Campbell is good enough to let a couple of our mid-level free agents go.