READ THIS BEFORE YOU POST!!!!!!!!!

REMEMBER - A MAXIMUM OF 4 LOCKS PER WEEK!

AND A MAXIMUM OF ONE LOCK PER DAY!

LOCK THREAD CONCEPT -

This thread has been created for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this!!! If you have an area of expertise - Pac-10, NBA, Soccer, MLB, Big East, NHL, etc. - please make some LOCK choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "LOCK". The difference between a PICK and a LOCK is that a PICK is a game you like, a LOCK is a game that you KNOW. We are here to help each other win. If you are claiming your choice is a LOCK, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING -

We take it upon ourselves to donate our time and track everybody's LOCK every day, as long as you agree to do your part by doing a few simple things. We will not track your LOCKs if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your LOCK on the spreadsheet.

- Post only 1 LOCK per day.  You may post a MAXIMUM of 4 LOCKS per week.  A week starts on Monday, and ends on Sunday.  Choose NCAA, NBA, NFL, or NHL.  You do not have to stay in one sport.  Spread them around if you like.

- No "buying" points for LOCKS.

- We want the LOCKS posted early enough so we can all benefit . If the LOCK is not posted within 30 minutes of the scheduled CBS start time the LOCK will not count.

- No other "line-manipulations: like teasers, etc

- First half or mini lines are OK.  No second half or quarter lines. Time constraints make second half lines too tough to track.   

- No parlays. Period.

- Props are OK as long as you give a site where we can check the line.

- Hockey, baseball, and soccer plays need to be -129 or better.  No HUGE favorites for LOCKS.  Anything -130 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs if you feel like it is still a LOCK.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the LOCK doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

- LOCKs MUST be posted 30 minutes before the time CBS says the game is set to go off, anything less than 30 minutes the LOCK will not count.

And, THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an original explanation as to why you KNOW this LOCK will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. And if you are going to try and fool us by cutting and pasting from another website, at least figure out how to remove all the HTML and other garbage. People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation. They are stats that any of us can get anywhere on the internet. Also, how about if you have actually SEEN the team play that you pick. I'd say that if you haven't seen a team play at least a few times, you can't really be an expert on the said team.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR LOCK WILL GET TRACKED

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

Good luck today and let's work together to win some cash!

Tuesdays LOCKS

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/
entry/16051630/34636296

Take these stats for what there worth .. figured it couldn't hurt to share these with you. *Last 5 is last 5 matches at home or away depending on whose home and away*

Man United vs Stoke

Man Utd (3rd at home) 8W 1D 2L ... 33 GF 14A
LAST 5 .. 3W 1D 1L

3-0 vs Bolton (13th road record)
2-3 vs Blackburn (16th road record)
5-0 vs Wigan (18th road record)
4-1 vs Wolves (19th road record)
1-1 vs Newcastle (8th road record)

Stoke City (10th on the road) 4W 2D 5L .. 8GF 20A
LAST 5 .. 3W 1D 1L

0-0 vs Liverpool (8th home record)
2-1 vs Blackburn (17th home record)
0-3 vs Man City (1st home record)
2-1 vs Wolves (15th home record)
1-0 vs Everton (14th home record)

Damn thing won't let me post .. I'll try later this morning. I always have trouble posting in the early AM

Good Morning Everyone!

I went 1-0 yesterday on posted plays with my lock of Pitt+6 which brings my record of posted plays to 47-41 (2 Unit plays) and 3-1 (Locks, 5 Unit plays). I would also like to thank Straight Wager for his Twolves picks because they were all spot on and aided to my bank account as well. I will try and get back on later with my plays for today.

Good Luck Everyone!

Good morning. It was great to participate in the board's success spearheaded by sw's NBA plays. Am reiterating my play on Virginia over 109. Line opened at that price at that price and went down to 107 1/2. I bought some at each price. Believe 115 is within reach. Looking at two other plays: t tech under as well as new Mexico. May come back to endorse those plays. Posting Virginia over 109. Present record : locks 4-1; other posted cbb total 5-3. Looking to go .667 on those plays. Have a great day. Gl . Bandit

 Here is my card.Good luck to all.

Ncaa 19:00 ET MI State (Michigan State) -2.5

Ncaa 20:00 ET Marquette -8.5

2 team parley MI State -2.5 Marquette -8.5

Nba 20:05 ET Memphis Grizzlies +2

3 team parley MI State -2.5 Marquette -8.5 Grizzlies +2

Blake Griffins dunk last night though???? Good GOD

EPL Leans til lineups...

Swansea +.5

Totts -1.75

Liverpool -.5

ManCity -.5

Stoke +1.5

Shizz .. Liverpool find their stride in cup play this weekend? This is their 8th match in 31 days.

My first play of the day is my 2nd Lock of the week:

LOCK  Kent/Ten  UNDER 132  5 Units

The first reason that I love this game to go under is Kentucky's defense. Kentucky has one of the best defenses in the nation ranking 15th at 58.6 pts/game. I see them continuing that dominance against a Tennessee team that isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse. Tennessee also knows that they don't want to run with Kentucky and that their only chance is to try and slow down Kentucky and milk the clock in order to limit their offensive possesions. This series also has a history of going under as 9 of the last 10 games between these two teams have gone under the posted total. These teams met a couple of weeks ago in Tennessee and Kentucky walked away with a hard fought 65-62 win. I really don't see this game being nearly that close and it would surprise me if Tennessee reached 55 points tonight. I think Kentucky will flex their muscles early and lead 32-18 at the half and then cruise to a 66-48 win.

Also playing:

Kentucky -9  (1st half) 2 Units
Kent/Ten  Under 61.5 (1st Half) 2 Units

Good Luck Everyone!

Liverpool is a tuff lean for me, but i have gone against them in their last 3 league fixes. You forget how good they can be til they play a team like the Wolves. Im mostly interested to see how they handle Carroll today.

Not around today


My Biggest Plays


Man U/Stoke OVER 2.5
Man U back home should get these 3 themselves, but Stoke will drop one in all but sealing it early!

Pescara/Crotone OVER 3
Back to the well in Italy with the one team that has yet to let me down. Scoring machine Pescara, cant get away from they now!.


Good Luck Guys........My Lady and Daughter are demanding all my attention today on a rare day off.........How Lucky they are!

SW:


Real nice work with Minnesota T'wolves last night.

SHOUT-OUT TO REGGIEDUNLOP ON HIS PENN -2 PICK OVER PRINCETON YESTERDAY....SOLID PICK,TX!

Nani Out .. Not sure about Rooney availability !!!

We have two Big Ten home dogs tonight...Big Ten home dogs are 11-6 this season with 9 straight up wins.  These are mostly plays based on trends and not really in game analysis. 

Illinois +2.5 over MSU.  Some analysis here from the MSU side backup PG Travis Trice is most likely not playing.  Looks like freshman Brandan Kearney will get some of the minutes.  He's okay, but freshman on the road in raucous environments like Illinois can be scary.  Illinois will be playing desperate with a 4-4 conference record.  They have lost 3 in a row.  Their only blowout loss was at Purdue, other than that they have played close games within 5.  They have played well at home including a win over Ohio State.  Decent desperate home teams have a way of coming through in the Big Ten. 

Penn State +9 over Wisconsin.  Wisconsin has been playing better.  Penn State is 2-2 at home.  They lost at home to Minnesota by 14.  Other than that they have stayed within 9.  The 111 total indicates a boring, low-scoring game.  I think this should help Penn State stay in this one, as that is their game.  Granted, it is Wisconsin's game too, and nobody is better at it.  I think Wisconsin still wins the game.

Moneyline is tempting but I would play that at your own risk. 

Good Morning Everyone ! I came across this NBA System for picking the games and I was wondering if any of you have tried it before? My biggest problem with it is that it doesn't come up with many games. There are two games that fit this system tonight. Those games are Indiana Pacers -9 1/2 and Atlanta Hawks-5 1/2.

The first step is to take the winning percentage of each team, which is easily found online or in any newspaper, and subtract the lower winning percentage from the higher percentage. 

For example, if the Celtics have a winning percentage of .750 and the Atlanta Hawks have a winning percentage of .450, the difference is .300. We will drop the decimals for ease of use with the system.

The second step is to dive the percentage differential by 20. In this case, we will dive 300 by 20 for a total of 15, which would mean our rough line on the game is Boston by 15 points.

Allow three points to the home team, so Boston would be -12 on the road or -18 if the Celtics are at home.

Subtract the point spread from the favored team and if the difference is 10 or greater, you would have a play. So, if the Celtics were favored by 2.0 points or less, or were the underdog on the road, they would be a play, as 12 - 2 = 10. If the Celtics were at home, they could be favored by as much as 8 points to be a play, as 18 - 8 = 10.

If the Celtics were favored by three or more on the road, or nine or more at home, there would be no play, as the difference is less than 10 points.

There are several qualifiers, such as the team cannot be in the second of back-to-back games, cannot have an injured starter, and no games with a point spread of 10 or more points is considered.

One more example:
If the Pistons have a winning percentage of .800 and the Jazz have a winning percentage of .400, the difference is 400, which would make the Pistons a 20-point favorite. At home, Detroit would be favored by 23, while the Pistons would be a 17-point favorite on the road.

Detroit would be a play at home if it was favored by 9.5 points or less, and would be a play on the road if it was favored by 7.5 points or less.