Florida vs Kentucky

lets start hearing everyones thoughts and predictions.

im hoping for a good game. Kentucky is very talented and has great length that should be very tough for florida. most of the time i would say they need to get young going down low, and they do, but i think the main thing will be getting hot earlier. a couple big 3's early get boyton and walker hot early would be nice. my x factor is Beal. very athletic and a nice touch from the arc as well. is a tough matchup. can crash the boards pretty well. my homewr prediction-


Florida- 68

Kentucky- 63    

That sound like a reasonable point differential to me.  But I think the scores will be higher.

Like: 

Florida 78

Cats 72     

Florida- 68

Kentucky- 63

Florida will not in win in Rupp Kentucky is too good at home I say 74-64 UK

Looking at this from a match-up standpoint, I see this one in UK's favor.  However, anything is possible and Florida is a very talented team.  I really think UK's length will play a huge part in this game.  While I think Walker will be able to cross up Teague pretty easily, I don't know that he will be able to penetrate and finished like he does against other teams.  Teague has about 4 inches on him, Kidd-Gilchrest has 5-6 incheson Beal, Milles has 5-6 inches on Boynton and will make the 3's more difficult, although I still think Florida will hit their fair share of 3's.  Also, I like that UK can switch on the guards and keep Florida's gaurds slowed down on penetrating.  For example, I would not get concerned with a 6'-7" Kidd-Gilchrist switching and defending a 5'-8" walker. 

Given that the game is at Rupp, the matchup adavantage for UK on paper, and, despite the #1 ranking, I still think UK has something to prove; I am going with my Cats in this one by 10.

I will go:

UK-74
FL-64

UK has too much size downlow, and MKG is going to be a very tough matchup for Beal to handle.  This game is very dependent on Florida hitting their 3's.  They shoot a lot of them!  Miller, will probably have a big game (always does aganist Florida)!  He is 6'8'', 232 lbs, and has the complete game (outside and inside).  Will be a very tough matchup.

I agree with what you say R Cat..and I hope UK's perimeter defense will be much tougher than Fla's ability to pop the 3's. 

I don't think Davis is going to just stand there when Fla penetrates trying to draw a blocking foul...I look for him to be mobile and block mainly from the weakside.  Jones and Miller are the guys to slide in and take the charge.  I like 72 for UK but Fla gets 58.

If the Cats come out with a weak perimeter D then this game might get ugly for us. It was an issue earlier on in the season, but hasn't seemed to be such as of late. I think that Kentucky might have too much size within the starting 5 for the Gators to handle and if we get off and running then Florida may be in some serious trouble, althought I know they do have some quick guards who can get back on D. I honestly have only seen the Gators play a handful of games this season, most being early on (tOSU and Cuse both being tough losses) but then again we haven't seen Kentucky lose a game in Rupp in almost 3 years. Should be a fun one, but I think the Cats will come out on top 75-64.

Exactly. If there is any weakness in this team its a lapse in 3 point defense from time to time. Florida is a perimeter oriented team and that wont change. They will launch them and if they are hitting it could be trouble. However the game is at Rupp so UK by 11

I agree with what Larry Glover said; This game could possibly become a burn out, or wash out or however you'd like to look at it. Meaning that if the Cats come to play, Florida has NO CHANCE. Within the confines of the Steven C. O'Connell center the Gators may have a chance. And thats if they come to shoot from behind the Arc. When Florida, much like any other "run & gun" type team comes into their BIG games, if they're not hitting the long distance shot, its gunna be another LONG night for the Orange, Blue and White. I'm sure Billy Donovan has already given each and every one of his kids the long and skinny about how Anthony Davis is going to factor into this game, without even spending a single second talking about how he comes to be so able to SCORE. And thats just as well, I guess. Because no one on Florida's team was gunna be able to stop Davis from doing whatever the Young Man wants to do, anyhow. I'm sure most that was spoken about him was, "If we're gunna get beat, then make sure and make someone ELSE other than Davis do it."

Which is fine with me. Jones, along with the rest of our guys have been playing like Men posessed these last couple weeks, and like everyone else, I'm sure all of Big Blue Nation are ready to see our guys to starting up playing "superior opponents" again seeing as how we have still yet to play a team with a winning record in the SEC. Oh well, I guess you could say that now everything is coming together at just the right time. I'm super excited to see these particular Brand of Wildcats and where they eventually will end up in this 2012 PostSeason!

I'm so glad that being a UK fan has become fun once again. There was a time during that wild and rough rocky tenure of Billy Gillispie that I thought, being a resident of Lexington that certain fans and UK students were going to take to the streets in Protest of how far UK Basketball had begun to fall. Our Football program recently (these last few years for those who didn't know) had like a 5-6 year in a row been picked for 'decent' Postseason Bowl games. Now, we're back in a funk. But that just shows you, that any other sport in the State can come and go, and yeah, we may gripe a bit about it, but NOTHING holds as much importance to Kentuckians as does our Roundball. Gotsta LOVE it..

I agree with most of the other posts. Barring Florida hitting 75% from behind  the arch the only thing that can beat UK tonight is themselves.
A complete ego fest happens. Cal and Miller get ejected for fighting  after Cal freaks and drop kicks Teague in the middle of the court. Miller retaliates.  Davis get abducted by aliens at the first TV timeout. Lamb and MKG realize they've both had the same lifelong dream of forming  their own interpretive dance team and head off for broadway. Jones can't handle the pressure of not having the other stars around and has a nervous breakdown. Vargas still smarting over being cut from the D.R. national team refuses to play. Hood pulls a muscle in his back taking off the redshirt. Leaving Paulson, Malone, Beckham and Long to feed Wiltjer who drops 50 and UK still wins 60-56.

Both teams are playing well.  Kentucky is playing to continue building on their reputation as the consensus pick as the #1 team in the country.  Florida is playing to prove they belong in the conversation of the 10 or so best teams.  Kentucky has everything to lose.  Florida is expected to lose this game.  They might as well play.  

The stat is that Kentucky hasn't lost at home and Florida is 2-4 in away games.  This gives a huge statistical edge to UK.    

For gamblers this is a no-brainer in terms of who should win the game.  Kentucky at home. Florida on the road.  The last time Kentucky was beaten by Florida at home was 2007.  Unbeaten at home this season.  Kentucky has covered every spread in the last four games easily.  This one will be around 9 point favorite for the Cats at tip-off.  Easy call.  It should be mentioned, however, that Kentucky failed to cover points for almost two months straight- but I think you know they won a bunch of games.  Florida has been favored in each of their conference games and has gone 4-4 against the spread.  Pick Kentucky, but beating the spread...I don't think so.   Probably a 3-5 point UK win is a much better way to spend your money.

Intangibles are that Florida is on a 7-game win streak including a convincing win over Vandy.  Also, the Gators played two elite teams away and competed at both Syracuse and Ohio State...but lost both games.

Kentucky has beaten UNC, Kansas, Louisville, Alabama at home.  Although the win against the Tarheels was by 1 point, nobody's arguing who has the best resume in the country.

The story of this game, however will be whether Florida's backcourt shoots well enough to hang with Kentucky's frontcourt.  Florida will likely start with a 2-3 defense with lots of activity on the ball- they will double team Davis every time he touches the ball-trying to deny the inside easy baskets and make Lamb, Miller, and Teague shoot the 3.  Such a scheme has worked for Indiana, Alabama, and Tennessee.  Donovan does his homework.  Florida can shoot and they have guys who can drive and kick it out, so the beginning of the game could be a quick start for the Gators.   It shouldn't surprise anybody if Florida is ahead by 5-8 at the half.    

Kentucky will start soft in a man defense with just the opposite objective- deny the 3 and make them drive to the bucket and greet the length of Kentucky inside.  Florida is talented enough, but tiny in comparison to UK guards.  UK will want to run.  Florida will look for a deliberate game consisting mainly of working off ball screens and passing around the perimeter looking to get shooters open.  Regardless of the plans, this game is destined to be in the 70's.

Personnel comparisons:

FLORIDA

Plays 7-8.  Walker and Boynton are experienced.

Freshman Bradley Beal is probably the most gifted Florida player averaging over 6 boards, 1.3 steals, nearly a block a game, 14 ppg shoooting 44% and 35% from beyond the arc, but he is turnover prone and is still maturing. 

Kenny Boyton is their best shooter and most experienced and smartest player.  Both he and Erik Murphy shoot very well beyond the arc.

Patric Young and Yeguete inside are both capable but have not been effective lately.  Young has the potential, but has not been playing well.  That has to change if they have a chance against UK. 

KENTUCKY

Plays 7.  Young team.

Anthony Davis, Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Terrence Jones are Fr and So phenoms.  Kidd-Gilcrist is aggressive and athletic as they come.  Davis looks like a franchise player in the NBA with 116 blocks, 169 rebounds, and shooting 70%.  These kids don't look like underclassmen. 

They are among the best defensive and offensive teams in the country.  Their starters shoot over 47% from the field and 6 players can shoot the three- Miller and Lamb being the most dangerous.  Rupp will be wanting Anthony Davis to shoot a three ball as he is 0-6 this season.  Teague as a tendency to turn the ball over, but he has good vision.  

While this should be a highly anticipated game, Florida will have a tough time beating Kentucky at Rupp Arena.  

This will be a great game. It will be loud and rocking in Rupp, but Walker and Boynton are experienced enough to not get rattled. 

Florida will NOT struggle with Kentucky's legnth. Florida's already played teams with just as much legnth as Kentucky. See, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Florida State. Won all four games. None of those teams are nearly as good as Kentucky, but to assert that Florida struggles with legnth is just untrue.

And, if Tennessee and Alabama can shoot threes well against Kentucky, you can bet your life savings that Florida will. If there has been a chink in Kentucky's defense thus far, it's been three point defense. So, I'd say that Florida matches up well with Kentucky.

Who will win? Probably Kentucky. It's nearly impossible for anyone to win at Rupp these days. But, because I'm a homer, I'll go:

Florida 77
Kentucky 72 

Kentucky fans are right. Florida has 0 chance. we might as well not even show up.

Kentucky has beaten UNC, Kansas, Louisville, Alabama at home

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Didn't know MSG was considered a home game for UK (that is where we played Kansas!!!)

Excited about this game tonight.  UK has looked unstoppable as of late, however SC, Tenn, and LSU really aren't that good.. 
If the game was at Florida I might have to give a slight edge to Florida, but at RUPP the Cats win!  I'll say 74-63.

And this is in no dis-respect to the Gators, but UK hasn't lost at Rupp since Cal became headcoach.. 

theres a first time for everything...

The only way FLorida wins this game is if they shoot unconscious from three. Coach Cal has said all week that this is his biggest fear. He knows thaty Florida will be chucking threes, and could see them shoot 35 of them. If they hit on half, Coach Cal has already stated that he'll simply move on to the Vanderbilt game and start preparing for them. However, if they are off, as I expect they will be, look for Kentucky to pound the ball low REPEATEDLY as Florida has no answer for Kentucky's bigs. Also, Darius Miller has feasted on Florida in the past playing the 4 position, as they have nobody who can cover him.

When it's all said and done....I HOPE.....

Kentucky 72
Florida 64.

uksmithfan-


 is there a reason u expect florida to be off from beyond the arc? do u have some insider info or are u just hoping there off?  

@theswamp- According to gator fans the Cats have no chance, just sayin. 

Jags-

Florida will NOT struggle with Kentucky's legnth. Florida's already played teams with just as much legnth as Kentucky. See, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Florida State.


I definitely caution you to NOT confuse the "length" of UK to that of Vandy, FSU, or Miss. St.  Comparing our length to Ole Miss....really?

I think you're confusing length with pure size.  UK has length, but that length is coupled with athleticism and speed.  There are VERY FEW teams who have similar length, athleticism, and speed as UK.  DEFINITELY not 3 other teams in the SEC!

You're right, Walker and Boynton are the strengths tonight for Florida.  However, you won't be seeing UK playing much zone tonight, and they won't be doubling down on post players either. 

That means Walker, Boynton, and Beal SHOULDN'T be getting as many open looks as they did against Vandy and Miss. St.  If the ball ends up in the post, UK will play post v post.  UK will NOT play zone....unless Florida has a shooter or 2 on the bench, but even then I don't see it happening...

Florida guards will struggle to get clean looks from deep against Kidd-Gilchrist, Miller, and even Beckhaum if he plays.

Teague and Lamb should do pretty well in defending the dribble penetration of Florida guards.

The keys to success/failure are in 2 areas - How strong of a game will Teague have - limiting turnovers, creating open looks/assists, and playing solid defense.  The second, offensive rebounding for UK.  Can Florida keep Jones, Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist and Miller off the offensive glass?  If they can, Florida has a good chance in this game.  If the Florida zone gives up rebounds....look out Gators!