Kobe's - All-time Scoring Leader?

First, let's recognize that, love him or hate him, Kobe's one of the (but not THE) all-time greats.  But just how great?

It's obvious that, barring injury, Kobe's going to continue to climb the all-time scoring ladder.  How far will he go?  Assuming Kobe retires about the same age Jordan did (and wouldn't that be just like Kobe?) and he averages what Jordan did in his Jordan's last two years (about 1,500 pts/season) and doubles this season's output for the remainder of the season (700 pts), Kobe will score about 9,700 more than his current 28,600 giving him about 38,300 pts for his career.  This would put him just about where Kareem is, plus or minus a few.  So depending on how Kobe performs at the end of his career, he will be get near to Kareem's all-time mark and could conceivably break it.

As far as field goals are concerned, Kareem's field goal record of 15,837 is safe.  Kobe's sitting just under 10,000 now.  Even if Kobe averages the same number of FG's as he has for the last 2 years until age 39 (about 725) and doubles his current FG's for the remainder of this season, Kobe's totals would be 14,600, good enough for #2.  And that's optimistic.  Jordan averaged 615 FG's/year in his last two seasons, so it's likely Kobe would be closer to 14,000, still good enough for #2 but quite a bit off of Kareem's #'s.

Where Kobe's numbers begin to fall flat starts with his FG%, where his career .454 average isn't in the top 250 all-time and a far cry from Jordan's .494 no less John Stockton's .515 (take that Rubio!  Best PG since Magic, righhhhhht.)  Add that to his high turnover ratio (he'll likely end up w/ 50% more turvovers than Jordan) and it's clear that, though Kobe will probably put up stellar numbers before he's done, his penchant for taking tough shots and tendancy to try and shoot his way out of every slump he's ever been in leaves him behind other all-time greats like Kareem, Russell, Wilt or Jordan.

Still, assuming Kobe keeps his scoring up (and there's no reason to believe he won't given what he's doing this season) there's no doubt he'll end his career near the top of a few all-time lists.

My 1st question is simple:  Will Kobe's end-of-career attempt to become the all-time career scoring leader help or hurt his all-time ranking regardless if he is 2nd or 1st in scoring?

My 2nd question is:  Will any of Kobe's numbers matter if Lebron is able to extend his career into his late 30's, or will Lebron's numbers tumble once his legs/athleticism begin to recede?

 Kobe's one of the all-time greats.

You said it best, BRAVO!!!!

It is one of those records that will be broken seemingly immediately thereafter.

LeBron James is likely to smash it.

So, I am not sure if Kobe should be selfishly chasing a record that is unlikely to stand more than 2-4 years.

He would be better served to stop shooting it so much and pass to Bynum. 

The Lakers will only win by Bynum being the centerpiece NOT Kobe.

If he beats Jordan's ring totals, that is more impressive than chasing down his scoring numbers.

My 1st question is simple:  Will Kobe's end-of-career attempt to become the all-time career scoring leader help or hurt his all-time ranking regardless if he is 2nd or 1st in scoring?

I think it depends on how he goes after the record. If he chooses to go "all-out" to try and catch Kareem, then I think that it will ultimately hurt his all-time ranking. It will hurt because his field goal percentage (already not the best) will be hurt as will the Lakers opportunity to win anymore championships before he retires.

I think that MJ could have surpassed Kareem as the all-time leading scorer if he wanted to, however, he was more interested in chasing championships than names on lists. If Kobe chases championships, he might catch Kareem, but would likely catch MJ with 6 titles (maybe even 7 depending on what, if any, moves that the Lakers make to improve the team around him).

However, if he decides to chase Kareem, the he will almost assuredly catch and pass him on the all-time scoring list, but will not catch or pass MJ in titles.

The thing with Kobe is..........that could go either way.

My 2nd question is:  Will any of Kobe's numbers matter if Lebron is able to extend his career into his late 30's, or will Lebron's numbers tumble once his legs/athleticism begin to recede?

It depends on Lebron. He seems to already be making some changes in his game that will help him later in his career (working on his post up game, for example). However, just like any great player, he will ultimately be remembered by the number of rings that he collects. So far, he is 0 for 2 in that area.

Another thing that I think will always be held against him by some folks, is The Decision. There are those who will always discount what he accomplishes (including championships) because it will be viewed as him not leading a team to a championship, but rather trying to take the "easy route".

Horns,

He would be better served to stop shooting it so much and pass to Bynum. 

The Lakers will only win by Bynum being the centerpiece NOT Kobe.

If he beats Jordan's ring totals, that is more impressive than chasing down his scoring number

Even as a Lakers/Kobe fan you're 100% on the mark.  I'd rather see Kobe adjust his game and feed the post earlier in his possessions.  In fact, if Kobe would give the ball up earlier he'd get it back more frequently for open shots or cuts to the basket.  Kobe scores more by giving the ball up - but it would take an exceptional coach to convince him of that.

As far as getting 1-2 more rings, Kobe's got the physical talent, but his team's lacking the executive talent to pull that off.  Unless another trade falls in their lap, they're toast IMO.

Trojan,

However, if he decides to chase Kareem, the he will almost assuredly catch and pass him on the all-time scoring list, but will not catch or pass MJ in titles.

I think Kobe controls his own destiny on the scoring record, but has only a remote chance of getting another title needing a big assist from a) other players and b) management.  My bet is Kobe opts for the scoring, as has been his penchant throughout his career.

As far as Lebron is concerned, the "Decision" should fade over time (heck, if Kobe can make a rape charge vanish into thin air, how hard can it be to make a little player collusion disapear?).  In the end, long after you and I have faded into the dirt, generations to come will look mostly to the records and video clips in judgement of the players historic accomplishments.

I agree If Lebron is going to challange Kareem's #'s, his game will need to get closer to the basket as his quickness subsides.

The difference between Kobe and Lebon though is Kobe's desire to shoot no matter what, and Lebron's tendancy to shoot when available and/or necessary.  As Lebron's quickness decreases and he has fewer fast-break/first-move opportunities, I don't expect him to develope a shoot-first mentality in the low post.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lebron become more of a low post assist man given his ball handling/passing skills.  In other words, I expect Lebron's PTS/game stats to take a hit in his later years more so than Kobe.  And that's not a knock on Lebron or admiration for Kobe.  It's just that Lebron plays more within the game and Kobe plays to score.  Hence Lebron's numbers will fade more rapidly as his skills diminish whereas Kobe will just substitute attempts for lower shooting %'s to keep his scoring #'s high.

In the end, I don't think Lebron will achieve the all-time scoring title.

At this point, his ego is going to kill the Lakers until he retires. It doesn't matter who they draft or trade for, Kobe would never allow anyone to steal his spotlight and a player like Gasol is no longer going to be able to turn them around. They need multiple pieces and they need a new star. CP3 would've been the guy to get. The Clippers must be thrilled as they're the team to beat in CA.

1. I don't think where he ends up has any relevancy to his legacy. Career points is a longetivity award nothing more or less. Karl Malone is in 2nd and no one calls hi =m one of the best players of all time granted Kobe is far different becuase he has 5 rings to Malone's 0. I think Kobe's career basically is what it is at this point top 10 all time but well behind players like Jordan,Russell, and Kareem. Where he finishes all time in scoring wont change that and a 6th ring probaby doesent change that either. 

2. Durant to me is more of a threat than Lebron for scoring numbers and both can be a threat to pass Kobe but both have 0 rings. I guess to me while being high on the scoring charts is certialy nice isen't that relevant when discussing best players of all time although it definitley s correlated a bit.  

The Lakers will only win by Bynum being the centerpiece NOT Kobe

Horns, sorry as a Lakers fan ... your foundation, or centerpiece, if it's Bynum, not necessarily the most stable so have to respectfully disagree completely.  Passing it to Bynum who has no go to shot and heck it urks me when he misses up close shots most of all, might as well pick another center piece and of course dealing with his health as well. 

LeBron James is likely to smash it.

Cool ... so if that's the case

If he beats Jordan's ring totals, that is more impressive than chasing down his scoring numbers.

Assuming that's the rationale ... then LeBron has far more to go than Kobe if that is the true standard.  I don't care about the selfish label, it's a great accomplishment in terms of longevity as well and being a effective scorer, Kudos to Kobe but the Lakers still lost the game to the 76ers. 

The whole point of what he has meant to the team over the years, undeniable ... but you can not rest on accomplishments.  So far unfortunetly, it's not a team system right now, heck Mike Brown's system almost focuses Kobe to shoot more much like LeBron did in Cleveland.  I can't blame him on that.  If the system is requring Kobe to be a scorer then so be it, but you can tell with the rest of the team INCLUDING a younger Bynum, it takes a hard toll due to schedules this year

The chase for Lakers fans is Rings, heck there's a Laker on top of the scoring mountain right now ... and heck he just passed Shaq who was a former Laker.  I give Kobe his due but he's still not done yet ... 

Didn't he come out and say today that he won't be one of those guys that averages 18 pts a game?

That's either a testament to he'll retire when he can no longer score 24-25 a game while still shooting around 45%, or he'll just shoot his team out of games to get to 24-25 pts a game because he's too old to get to the hoop.

I think he'll get another title. He's got a lot of games on those knees but if there's anyone that can play effectively til he's 40 it's Kobe; no one works harder. He's worked to refine his game to a point to where athletic ability doesn't mean as much as it used to mean to him, that's something Lebron will have to do in order to play til he's that age.

Bird wants Kobe on his side if he was playing over any player in the NBA. That speaks huge volumes....

First off good post. And to the Kobe detractors, Kobe wants rings not scoring records.  But regarding the all time scorer list, a poster mentioned Karl Malone as #2, and how Malone is somehow not the greatest company to be around. Karl Malone is the second best PF of all time (right behind Tim Duncan). If you watched him play he was amazing, and Jordan kept Malone from getting multiple rings.



But lets say your argument is true, the All-Time scorer record, is a record of "longevity" not greatness. Kareem, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, might disagree with you regarding that. And btw those are the guys Kobe has passed or his looking to pass.   

Also, lets talk about LeBron and Durant.


LeBron is on pace to beat Kobe. However, LeBron has not shown that he can play into his 30's at this high level. He is still not a good shooter. Hes an average jump shooter. He gets his points by getting to the hoop and shooting free throws. I do not beleive his body can sustain the punishment for another 8-10 years. Additonally, one of the great things about Kobe is he plays hurt, rehabs well and keeps his body in really good shape, we all know how he will and how he has reacted when he has sustained a real injury.

Has LeBron sustained a real injury before? No. So we don't know how he would come back after a real injury. Hes got a lot of years left in his career and if healthy he probably will break the all time scoring record, but there is still an if.


Durant will break the record, simply because he can shoot. The guy can shoot the basketball and getting to the rim is secondary to him. Hes a pure scorer and unless an injury happens I think he could be the leagues all time scoring leader.        

tfitz,

When I started the thread I contemplated whether both Durant and Lebron might grab the top scoring honor, and decided Durant will climb the ladder but not to the top.  Certainly Durant has had a stellar start, he's a pure shooter with moves and hops.  But time will dull his skills and he'll need to compensate by changing his style over time.  Where Lebron has the size to move closer to the rim, Durant will get a beat-down in the low post with his toothpick body type should he attempt to do so.  As age diminishes his legs and quickness his scoring will likely take a big hit that cannot be compensated for by developing a low post game. 

Centers like Kareem have the advantage over other positions, they can get closer to the basket toward the end.  But smaller players like Jordan and Durant have to change their style if they're going to prevail.  Whereas Lebron's body type he can survive in the low post, his approach to scoring will keep him from reaching the top, he's just too much of a team player.  Kobe's somewhat of an anomaly in that, though his game hasn't changed much, he just keeps shooting no matter how often he misses.  Still, he'll need to go low post toward the end if he's going to keep his scoring average up.

One note about the all-time record:  Jordan took the better part of four seasons off.  Had he played each season, by my estimate Jordan could have scored somewhere around another 8,500 points and would easily have passed Kareem in scoring and, perhaps even in FG's.  Jordan was simply an amazing scorer and all-around player.  No knock on Russell or Kareem, but I really think Jordan was the best player all-time with his all-around game, ability to score, and history of stepping up when it counted the most.  As a Lakers fan I hated him, but as an NBA fan I hold him above all others.

Kareem, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, might disagree with you regarding that. And btw those are the guys Kobe has passed or his looking to pass.   

Its both. Why are Jordan and Wilt not numbers 1 and 2 in points? Becuase Malone and Kareem hung around longer and player more seasons. If Kobe passes these guys what does it mean? Like I said Kobe's career basically is what it is at this point. Top 10 all time but no where near number 1. Whether he ends up first or 5th all time in scoring isen't changing that. 

Didn't he come out and say today that he won't be one of those guys that averages 18 pts a game?

That's either a testament to he'll retire when he can no longer score 24-25 a game while still shooting around 45%, or he'll just shoot his team out of games to get to 24-25 pts a game because he's too old to get to the hoop.

Him saying that just shows that he is thinking about points and not titles in this point of his career. If he thinks that scoring only 18-19 while maybe getting 5 boards and dimes isn't contributing enough to get to another title, then he's just being selfish by wanting to make sure he hits that 24-25pt game all the time...regardless how many shots it takes.

18-19 a game isn't going to get him to Kareem faster than 24-25.

Didn't he come out and say today that he won't be one of those guys that averages 18 pts a game?

That's either a testament to he'll retire when he can no longer score 24-25 a game while still shooting around 45%, or he'll just shoot his team out of games to get to 24-25 pts a game because he's too old to get to the hoop.

Him saying that just shows that he is thinking about points and not titles in this point of his career. If he thinks that scoring only 18-19 while maybe getting 5 boards and dimes isn't contributing enough to get to another title, then he's just being selfish by wanting to make sure he hits that 24-25pt game all the time...regardless how many shots it takes.

18-19 a game isn't going to get him to Kareem faster than 24-25.

It seems that what he said is being taken out of context a bit (I know, I'm as shocked as anyone to see that on these boards. LOL!!). He also said that he is not going to be one of those guys going from team to team trying to chase rings. That if he gets anymore rings, it will be as a Laker. What that tells me, is that he still wants rings, but isn't going to try to get one by being an 18 ppg player hopping from one contending team to another (you know, like Shaq and others have done).

Kobe has 2, maybe 3 years left of being the Lakers centerpiece. The biggest issue won't be sharing the spotlight, it will be whether or not he is willing to share it as a #2 option rather than as a #1 option. I think that if the right pieces are put around him, he might be able to extend his career another couple of seasons (and maybe a couple more rings) if he willing to be the #2.

One more point. If Kobe is able to accept being a #2 option, he could be a pretty devastating #2 option. Late in MJ's career, he was never a true #2 option, but he did master "picking his spots" to take over a game. If Kobe can master what MJ did, he can definitely get himself at least another ring or 2.

trojan,

If Kobe is able to accept being a #2 option, he could be a pretty devastating #2 option.

Then, if only the Lakers could find a #1, they'd be set!

Then, if only the Lakers could find a #1, they'd be set!

It would likely have to be either a transition of Bynum to the #1 option role or if a trade for Howard happened.