Juan Francisco

Does anyone know what they plan on doing with Juan Francisco before the start of th season. It is my understanding that they are out of options on him so it seems like the be either trying to trade him . I hve always been impressed with his bat and thought he fared much better in the field at third base than I was led to believe by most of the experts. I also wonder if anyone knows why they don't get rid of Josh Joyce who they claimed off waivers from Cleveland to make room on their 40 man roster. I don't know how it works but I was under the understanding that if you claim somebody off waivers they have to make your team or they go back to the original team and I don't see anyway how he makes this team out of spring training. I just wonder if the Reds shouldn't try and trade Juan Francisco before someone winds up getting him via waiver claim.

My mistake Josh Judy is actually the name of the pitcher they claimed from Cleveland. Does anyone know if there is a place to go to see how many options a team has remaining on minor league players because I believe someone told they are out of options on Carlos Fisher as well(not that he would be a big lose).

I'm confused about the Reds position player plan so far myself.

I don't think it's the same for players claimed on normal waivers, but I know Rule 5 waiver claims must stay with the MLB team that claimed them all year, or can be reclaimed by the original team. The waiver fee isn't much money, so there isn't much risk in claiming someone, other than releasing another player to make room for him.  

I've also been impressed with Francisco's ability to hit a baseball a long way, but dissapointed with how frequently he misses trying to. They say his defense has improved, but I have no clue what that really means. I know they've played Francisco in LF some in AAA, and since the Reds have no other lefthanded outfielders except Jay Bruce, maybe the plan is to keep him as a pinch hitter, fill in at 3b or in LF. He may be trade bait, too. We'll find out come spring training.

I've read that the Reds have to make room on the 40 man roster for Ryan Ludwick after he passes a physical, and have signed a few others to "minor league" deals- Willie Harris for example, that would require a 40 man roster change if he made the MLB team too, so I suspect some current 40 man roster players will be removed before the season anyway. Trades, releases or waivers are all methods to accomplish that. 

It may be easier to pass the Bar exam than to be an expert on waivers.

This is what I know-

Players get three option years. That is, three years in which they are on the 40 man roster, but not on the 25 man roster for at least part of a MLB season.

If a player has fewer than five years of professional experience, he can be sent to the minors in a fourth season without being subject to waivers.

Once the player is out option years, if he gets "optioned" to the minors, he must clear irrevocable waivers. When a player is put on irrevocable waivers, any team can claim him. If no team claims him, the player is assigned to the minor leagues. However, if the player has five years or more of major league service, he can refuse the option to the minors and become a free agent.

More on waivers:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_
League_Baseball_transactions

Just a point I would like to make on Juan Fran while we're at it...


I could be wrong but the pulse I get from this message board on Juan Francisco is faint at best. Seems like most of you write the kid off as a swingaholic, defensive liability who will launch a tape measure shot from time to time but really isnt a moving forward option for the Redlegs at 3rd base.


Granted, his limited track record assuredly shows those afforementioned tendencies but what ever happend to guys I dunno, maybe learning and getting better? Do I expect Juan Fran to undergo a Jose Bautista like transformation and become the answer of all answers in the Cincy lineup? No. Of course not. That would be foolhardy. But is it so crazy to thing this kid could develop into a pretty decent defensive option at 3rd in life after Rolen with a .250-.260 average to go along with 30+ home runs in a full year?

I dont think so. And looking around the league, isnt that MAD DECENT for a full time player and 3rd baseman? With his power alone he has the ability to turn 10-15 fly ball outs into dingers at GABP. You think people would continue to walk Votto AS MUCH with that kinda power behind him?

Does Juan Fran have some holes in his game? Assuredly. I just dont quite understand the feel here on the boards of writing him off as a real future option at 3rd considering what ELITE 3b cost and what we have in the minors coming.

I talked to a couple of guys who faced him in Double-A including one who is a coach in the Marlins system.
These pitchers said that if Juanderful Juan can manage to recognize the strike zone, he will be amazing.
But if he doesn't, he has no chance. So it seems it's up to him and his coaches.
As for his defense, I haven't seen enough to evaluate. I think it's more his throwing than his range at 3B.

His strike outs are out of sight.
His glove is below average so is his range.
His arm is plus. but you never know where he is going to throw it

Cant argue your points too much Hubbuch, I agree. But again my point is, we havent seen a real sample size from this kid. Sometimes you just need the chance.



I for one would like to see Juan Fran at LEAST get a chance with the Reds at some point. Money, upside, organizational needs. Market.

There was a player in Philadelphia who came up in 1973 and played 3b.  His
strikeouts were out of sight and his first year BA was .196.  The Phillies played him
consistently.  The next year he hit 38 homers and drove in over 100 and the rest is
history.  His name was Mike Schmidt.

There was a tall,  lanky outfielder that struck out a lot and primarily sat the pine for his
first three years as a Red.  Sparky Anderson's ability to "Think outside the box" saw potential
in this kid.  He made the famous move in 1975 and stuck him out in left and moved Rose to
third.  The Reds subsequently won back to back WS and this kid carried the Reds offensively
for the next 5 years.  His name was George Foster.

Now I'm not going to be silly and compare Francisco to Mike or George but unless you give someone
a CONSISTENT shot how are you ever going to know.  In one game out the next.  Play two sit two more
than likely will not allow a player to get into any kind of offensive rhythm.

Now his defensive liabilities are another matter and are probably the cornerstone to the Reds holding him back.

Tough call but I wouldn't give up on his bat yet until we get a hard look.

The only gamble on Juanderful Juan is to put him at 3B and see if it floats.
At what point during the season do we do that? Arguably, it was last year when Rolen was out but ... Juan was also out with an injury. So he may have missed his most important window.

We are all thinking Rolen will go down again and if he does, do we gamble on Juan at 3B if we are in a pennant race, or do we go out and get somebody? Or use Cairo there, which seems Dusty-like.
 
Even if the guy gets a chance, the naysayers will still compare him to Yonder Alonso and say he can't project with 110 at-bats.

How much of a chance does he get? I'd say the odds are slim that he will get any chance.

I need to add that putting him in LF is the same stale argument that we used to justify  trading Alonso.
Why put the guy there? He can't play LF. Besides, we need to keep finding left fielders to platoon there instead of using guys we already have.

A bit snarky on this one.

I frankly wish we'd trade Juan be done with the debate. That's how we manage all our hitters. They don't fit the old man's lineup so we trade them for a relief pitcher.

I hear you guys, and can't disagree.

I just haven't seen Francisco much, other than batting practice and the few AB's / innings he's had with the Reds. He's got a couple of real major flaws in his swing- he steps in the bucket horribly early in his swing making him a lock to foul off the inside pitch he DOES get a bat on, and not be able to reach anything on the outer half of the plate very well. His head is in the 2nd deck when the bat is in the strikezone. Breaking balls will eat this flaw up, and I've seen him take some fastball hacks as high as the bill of his helmet before, too. 

He's definately an over swinger so far, with a strikezone the size of a compact car... A hitting coach SHOULD have already worked on him...and there is still a lot of work left to do. He did hit consistently in the minors, with better batting average and power than Drew Stubbs and Todd Frazier, for example, so I assume he has more hitting potential than they do. If the Reds can get this guy to stay closed more at the plate, and reduce his swing zone, he's a beast. Until then, he may be Adam Dunn without the walks.   

Defensively, I'm lost on him other than what I've read and seen, and unless he plays some innings, we'll never know. I don't think we're blocking any better talent at 3b by giving Francisco the AB's Rolen misses until we find out. There are better Reds gloves at 3rd, but they don't hit like this guy. It's probably why he's still on the roster. I don't see how it's possible for anyone to play 3b worse than Edwin Encarnacion did, and they gave him 3 years of chances. I suspect this is Rolen's last year, and it may be Francisco's turn in 2013.

George Foster and Mike Schmidt (especially Schmidt) had far better swings than Francisco does.  Juan seems to try so hard to hit the ball to Kentucky that he appears (at least to me) to always be way off balance.  Schmidt (if I remember correctly) had a nice, quick, compact swing.

Personally, if it's one or the other, I tend to think that Chris Valaika has better prospects for success than Franciscio, although CV may end up at 2nd base if/when Phillips leaves.  I think Frazier might be a better long term option than Francisco too.

The prevailing trend is that a 3B ought to provide some long-ball power. Tradition tells us that, except when we discuss Pete Rose.


I would like to see him get some quality-time swings so we could at least prove one way or the other about him.

From what I saw, he'd add another 200 strikeouts to our lineup.

If you look at the current roster:

Defensively at 3B:
1- Rolen
2- Frazier
3- Cairo
4- Valdez
5- Francisco


Leadership:
1- Rolen
2- Cairo
3- Valdez
4- Frazier
5- Francisco

Offensive Fire Power: Minus Strikeouts
1- Francisco
2- Rolen
3- Frazier
4- Cairo
5- Valdez

Offensively overall including Strikeouts
1- Rolen
2- Cairo
3- Frazier
4- Francisco
5- Valdez


That is how I see things

Justin,


You are correct. We have not seen him at the major league level except for small samples. Sometimes you have to look at someones minor league production and add another 10% for the pressure to produce. In 74 games and I do not know how many he played at 3B. I am assumming 60 he committed 7 errors. That is not a good rate of production

For what it's worth, if anyone has a subscription to ESPN's InSider (I don't), there's a blog today on several sleepers, including Francisco. Let us know what you find out. The author writes primarily on fantasy baseball, which might be superfluous, but you can be assured he'll be analysed up the ying-yang. Of course, Dustyised beats analysed every time, but here ya go:

 http://insider.espn.go.com/fan
tasy/blog/_/name/karabell_eric_base
ball/id/7551181/unheralded-bryan-la
hair-juan-francisco-worth-considera
tion-deep-fantasy-baseball-leagues

I'll take exception to a few things here-

Saying the Reds have options at 3b is like saying the Titanic had options. Only ONE option is acceptable, and this ship sinks if that one goes bad.

Defensively-
Paul Janish kicks everyone's arse on Hubs list except Rolen, and Chris Valaika is probably the 3rd best glove there.  Willie Frickin Harris should probably also make this list of guys we DON'T want to see much of at 3b this year.

Offensively-
HOPE is our only offensive chance at 3b...Rolen first, MAYBE Francisco...and they're no lock. The SS, C and 2 OF spots AREN'T great hitters, so 3b HAS to hit more than Cairo, Frazier, etc. have EVER hit, even in the minors.

Leadership -
WHAT ?
I thought this was the MANAGER's job. I'll give them some leadership- Don't steal 1 out and 2 strikes, hit the breaking ball the other way, and take a left turn at each base as often as possible, not just after a homer. No offense (pun intended), but the only thing Miguel Cairo, Wilson Valdez and Todd Frazier can lead a MLB team to,  is missing the playoffs.


BTW- I grew up watching Mike Schmidt in HS in Dayton, and saw few games at OU. He was one hell of a shortstop back then- not ever a defensive liability like Francisco. He did have a huge swing that missed a lot though.

Soooooooooooooo ... anybody here for trading Arredondo, Bailey, Heisey and Juanderful Juan to the Mets for David Wright?

I would not trade Arrendondo. But, there would be a few takers for Francisco and Bailey that I feel very confident in.

I did not put Janish in here because I do not think he will make the club out of Spring Training. Sure his defense is better than all but Rolen's. But his offense is behind everyone's