Whitney Mercilus - OLB @ #28?

Analysis

Pass rush: Very active and plays with top effort on every snap. Moves all around the defensive line, lining up off the edge and inside at defensive tackle. Has the natural speed to win the edge and closes in a flash. Attacks gaps and is a pesky rusher, finding ways to squirm into the backfield. Hard player to block cleanly. Plays with a fighting mentality and has the violent hand usage to battle through the trash and make the play. Hustle player with a nonstop motor. Tends to play high and doesn't worry much about technique or fundamentals. Still developing his snap anticipation and will jump offsides at times.

Run defense: Lacks an obvious power element to his game and struggles to shed blocks on run plays. Doesn't consistently set the edge and will over run his responsibilities. Still developing his recognition skills and instincts. Struggles to consistently locate the ball and will get caught out of position at times.

Explosion: Fires off the snap with a first step burst that really stands out. A bit tight in the hips and straight-linish in his movements. Lacks great change-of-direction ability to explode laterally or smoothly redirect his momentum.

Strength: Has adequate build with very good length and overall measureables. Plays tough with the hand strength to rip the ball out and force fumbles. Lacks an ideal frame for the position and doesn?t have the prototypical muscle definition. Lacks great bulk and doesn't have a lot of room to get much bigger.

Tackling: Physical in the trenches and doesn't try to avoid contact. Has long arms to wrap and wrestle ballcarriers to the ground. Takes pride in his ability to finish and complete tackles.

Intangibles: Has only one year of starting production under his belt, causing questions about being a "one year wonder" and was a relative unknown entering the 2011 season. Had above average production in 2011, leading the nation in sacks (16.0) and forced fumbles (9) and finishing second in tackles for loss (22.5) - consistent production week-in and week-out as a junior in 2011. Decided to leave early to help his family financially (both his parents are immigrants from Haiti).

I like anything that spells pass rush and Mercilus appears to have the tools.   I also like Nick Perry as an alternate to generate this pressure.   My concern with all these guys, including Zach Brown is that they are college DE's and that means remapping and retraining these guys.  That works against their instinct and may not yield the best results, especially with coverages.  Of course, picking at #28 doesn't give you much luxury.

If these stud rushers are gone by the 28 spot then I think we focus on a mountain for the D-line.  If a guy like Dontari Poe or Fletcher Cox are around then lets plug one leak and look for a convertable DE in the second or third (like Vinnie Curry or the like).

In any event, the first rounder needs to be a stud and a first year impact player.  The second rounder needs to be the best player available in the other need spot (OLB, DLine, CB) and must contribute to the defense rebuild.  It sure would be nice to have an extra pick in the top two rounds.  Too bad that Matt Flynn didn't have his coming out party last year.   

Packman, if it's coverage that you're concerned about, we could go with Tyler Nielsen in the 5th. He's a 4-3 OLB, but he was used almost exclusively for coverage purposes at Iowa. I think if worse came to worse, we could employ his 4.54 speed and shift him to Safety in a coverage role. I think he could be a very useful and versatile player for us.

As for Mercilus, I think he's a bit of a flavor of the week pick pretty much for the reasons Packman stated. Right now, DE is the far greater need as we saw CMIII being able to be double and triple teamed because there wasn't anyone in front of him creating any sort of pressure. We need bigger and faster DE's. Granted, part of the problem was Pickett at LDE: BIG mistake by Capers. I think CJ Wilson disappears after training camp and Wynn goes right along with him if we draft a few DE's. If we do go OLB at 28, I hope we'd do something like this:

1. Nick Perry
2. Chase Minnifield, CB, UVA
3a. Markelle Martin, FS, Okie St.(we might reach on him in the 2nd)
3b. Kheeston Randall, DE, Texas
4a. LaDarius Green, TE, La-Laf.(Finley ain't gonna be back)
4b. Akiem Hicks, DE-DT, LSU/Regina
5. Tyler Nielsen, OLB, Iowa
6. Omar Bolden, CB, ASU
7. Tank Carder, OLB, TCU(Carder can play both inside and out)

3a. Markelle Martin, FS, Okie St.(we might reach on him in the 2nd)
3b. Kheeston Randall, DE, Texas
4a. LaDarius Green, TE, La-Laf.(Finley ain't gonna be back)
4b. Akiem Hicks, DE-DT, LSU/Regina

I notice that you are showing two picks in the third and two in the fourth.  What up?

I like your emphasis on defense.  I would like to see one more big D-lineman in the mix because, like you said, both C.J. Wilson and Darius Wynn should be gone (Howard will probably carry their luggage).  I would also give up a CB for another running back.  I don't see Grant coming back, Starks can't stay healthy and Alex Green is coming back from major knee surgery.  Aside from the pleasant surprise in Brandon Saine, we are a little thin in the backfield.  Let's get some talent and speed at running back.

4a. LaDarius Green, TE, La-Laf.(Finley ain't gonna be back)

For one, Finley will be back, it is foolish to think otherwise. Anyways, I would prefer someone like Zach Brown over Mercilus, he is more athletic and has more upside imo.

I know TT is not a big fan of free agency moves. I am a bit worried that this draft will not present a person that can make an impact at Rushing for two to three years. That is the probablem, while the Packers are a young team we can win now with a better rush. Good pass rush makes ok DB's look great. I would like to see a trade, or ree agency pick up. Perhaps from a team that is about to start rebuilding, and has a pass rusher that only has three-four years left, Even two to three. Anything less would be pointless.


Just a point of view not even sure who would be available for trade/free agency.

Based on the analysis that BFFL posted Mercilus sure sounds like a 4-3 end and not a 3-4 outside linebacker, especially when they refer to his run defense and lack of change of direction skills. 

 But I don't get too excited one way or the other about draft prospects untill after the combine is over at which point there seems to be more of a consensus from all the various scouting reports available about what skills a player has/doesn't have.   

PackMan,

I forgot to mention comp picks. I think we'll also get another pick somewhere shortly thereafter because I believe Poppinga left via FA. As for the running back position, Grant is the type of guy who will come back for cheap. He cares more about winning than personal achievement. If he got a better opportunity elsewhere and left, it's not like we couldn't find someone. Don't forget we're a pass-first, run second offense. If we got an extra 7th, I'd pencil in Cody Johnson or Dorell Scott(6-1, 240, runs a 4.4).

Just hope TT selects best DL or OLB available at #28 then fill the other position in the 2nd round.  We also need a RB and backup QB and maybe another OL.  Outside of that hope the other selections are all defense and any position.  I hope TT takes a look at Russ Wilson from Wisconsin at QB.  The guy is smart and talented, although a bit short.  With MM/Clements working with him he could be a good one down the road.  Hope to get him maybe in 4th/5th round.  Defense with OLB, DL, CB would be nice and multiple guys selected.  I've read where Hawk and even Flynn could be traded (franchise Flynn then trade).  That would bring in additional picks and need for another ILB unless we are sold on DJ Smith.

"(franchise Flynn then trade)."

No team is gonna give up 2 firsts and pick up a guarenteed $14M contract for Flynn. If the Pack franchises Flynn, we got him; he stays. A $14M bench warmer doesn't fit TT's M.O.

"Just hope TT selects best DL or OLB available at #28 then fill the other position in the 2nd round.  "

I hope everyone realizes that building through the draft is a two year gig. Unless you can grab a "Raji/Matthews" type day again, at #28 we're not finding that world-beater pass rush dude that turns this #32 defense into a top 10. And after two years of coaching, if the dude washes out (ala Neal and Harrell) in year three, you spend another 2 years experimenting with new draft picks.

The defense (albeit pass rush) needs to be fixed next September, not experimenting with freshman over the next 5 years ... ... ...  

Just hope TT selects best DL or OLB available at #28 then fill the other position in the 2nd round.  We also need a RB and backup QB and maybe another OL.  Outside of that hope the other selections are all defense and any position.  I hope TT takes a look at Russ Wilson from Wisconsin at QB.

You had me at DL or OLB.  This is the exact call that I would love to see, particularly the 1st round second round flip.  While I do like the Wisconsin QB pick, I don't think that this team can afford to use a third round (even though he could go this high) on a third string option.  I think that our 3rd round will need to be the BAP at DL, LB or the secondary.  We definitely need two D-line keepers out of this draft.

I would also like to see a decent fourth round running back pick.  Isaiah Pead out of Cincy or Vick Ballard out of Mississippi State would help out in the backfield and potentially give the offense another dimension.  I would expect some big body lineman, either OL or DL in the latter rounds.  Either way, we need to stick our first 4 rounds and we need at least 2 contributors to our defense from these rounds.