While I have been very unhappy with Weber the past couple of years, and do want him gone, I disagree with part of what you are saying upchurch. Looking at Chicago/Illinois recruiting from 2008-2011, Illinois has gotten a majority of the talent locally.
2008 was a bad year for Chicago HS talent with really only Shumpert worthy of mentioning (he went to Georgia Tech, and is now in the NBA). A miss on that player.
In 2009, it was rather down as well. Illinois got the top player in the state with Paul. Others in that class weren't what Illinois wanted (Smith went to UConn to do nothing, Brandt was nothing at Oregon State, and Vogrich was Beilein's type of forward so he went to Michigan). Getting Richardson out of Vegas was a good find (just not a great find).
2010, Illinois got the best 3 players in the state in Leonard, Ricmond, and Head. All 3 were consensus top 35 players.
Then 2011 was a MONSTER class in state. The top 3 players (Davis, Blackshear, and Randle) all went elsewhere. I was mostly upset about Randle, because I thought he was going to choose Illinois over Purdue and Stanford. But he went out West. But Egwu, Abrams, Shaw, and Henry were all considered "top 100" players. They all went to Illinois.
A team doesn't have 20 scholarships to hand out each season. So some Chicago based talent is going to leave just based on numbers. Weber is usually not a one-and-done type of recruiter (not bashing at all, just saying what his pattern is like). The only player that he really wanted in that gist was Gordon. And because of what happened, I believe that made him even more skiddish. The Junior and Sophomore HS classes right now in Illinois are looking to be huge again, led by Jabari Parker. We shall see what happens. But I don't think that Weber will be around for that.
I do agree about Howard. He is a very good recruiter.
But you're also looking at players like Anthony Davis, Verdell Jones III, Scheyer, DeAndre Liggins (from Chicago, ended up at Findlay Prep I think though),
2008 - Dunigan to Oregon, you mentioned Shumphert (ranked worse than Dunigan), Humphrey to Oregon, Thompson to SLU, Lewis Jackson to Purdue, and Dillard to Carbondale
2009 - Uconn got Darius Smith, Colvin to Iowa St, Diamand Taylor to Wisconsin, Vogrich to Michigan,
2010 Class - Weber saw Crandall Head transfer, Anthony Johnson to Purdue, Reggie Smith to Marquette, Lenzell Smith to Ohio St, Brandon Spearman to Dayton, Oregon St got Ahmad Starks, and James Siakam went to Vandy
2011- Davis to UK, Blackshear to Louisville, Boatright to UConn, Thompson to Ohio St, Randle to Stanford, Jones to Butler,
Class of 2012, I believe the best player in the state is from Champaign....Jay Simpson....and he's committed to Purdue. Other players in the class, Steve Taylor has committed to Marquette
My point isn't that U of I should have signed EACH of these, it's that you cannot deny that there is TOO MUCH talent from Illinois going to schools other than U of I
Big 10 Rivals are having waaaaay to much success recruiting the state of Illinois
Illinois is basically having ZERO success recruiting elsewhere
2 of the biggest recruits Weber has landed recently, Richmond and Head, decided LESS than a full season into playing for him that they were taking off
Listen, I feel bad for Weber, I wish he would have seen more success (with his own players, not Self's). but he cannot handle the level of basketball that he's at. He's more of a Carbondale/Wichita St/La Salle type coach....it's the truth
I agree that Weber is not a power conference head coach. No argument there at all.
The problem I see is that you mentioned about 6 players each year. A team can't sign 6 players every year. Plus, depending on what type of team you will have in the next 2 years, you have to recruit according to what your roster looks like if you are wanting 4-year players. You can't just go after anything. No matter what they did in HS. If you are going to be guard heavy, you look more towards bigs, and vice-versa.
Also, Richmond wasn't being given the chance to do whatever he wanted to. He was disciplined on more than one occasion due to his own attitude and other items. He was basically told his crap wasn't going to be tolerated moreso than him feeling like taking off. I will admit I don't know much about the Head situation, other than possibly playing time issues.
Even though Jones was from right in their backyard, no one really wanted him. He wasn't considered to be that good. He didn't even sign with Indiana until very late in his Senior year in HS because he wasn't getting offers.
I think you missed the part where I said something to the extent of, my point isn't that Weber should sign ALL players coming out of Illinois, but it was more like...
If you're seeing as much talent leaving the state as Illinois is, or you're having trouble holding onto it (Richmond, Head), AND you're having VERY LITTLE success recruiting outside of the state, then you're having some serious troubles....