READ THIS BEFORE YOU POST!!!!!!!!!

REMEMBER - A MAXIMUM OF 4 LOCKS PER WEEK!

AND A MAXIMUM OF ONE LOCK PER DAY!

LOCK THREAD CONCEPT -

This thread has been created for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this!!! If you have an area of expertise - Pac-10, NBA, Soccer, MLB, Big East, NHL, etc. - please make some LOCK choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "LOCK". The difference between a PICK and a LOCK is that a PICK is a game you like, a LOCK is a game that you KNOW. We are here to help each other win. If you are claiming your choice is a LOCK, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING -

We take it upon ourselves to donate our time and track everybody's LOCK every day, as long as you agree to do your part by doing a few simple things. We will not track your LOCKs if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your LOCK on the spreadsheet.

- Post only 1 LOCK per day.  You may post a MAXIMUM of 4 LOCKS per week.  A week starts on Monday, and ends on Sunday.  Choose NCAA, NBA, NFL, or NHL.  You do not have to stay in one sport.  Spread them around if you like.

- No "buying" points for LOCKS.

- We want the LOCKS posted early enough so we can all benefit . If the LOCK is not posted within 30 minutes of the scheduled CBS start time the LOCK will not count.

- No other "line-manipulations: like teasers, etc

- First half or mini lines are OK.  No second half or quarter lines. Time constraints make second half lines too tough to track.   

- No parlays. Period.

- Props are OK as long as you give a site where we can check the line.

- Hockey, baseball, and soccer plays need to be -129 or better.  No HUGE favorites for LOCKS.  Anything -130 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs if you feel like it is still a LOCK.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the LOCK doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

- LOCKs MUST be posted 30 minutes before the time CBS says the game is set to go off, anything less than 30 minutes the LOCK will not count.

And, THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an original explanation as to why you KNOW this LOCK will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. And if you are going to try and fool us by cutting and pasting from another website, at least figure out how to remove all the HTML and other garbage. People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation. They are stats that any of us can get anywhere on the internet. Also, how about if you have actually SEEN the team play that you pick. I'd say that if you haven't seen a team play at least a few times, you can't really be an expert on the said team.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR LOCK WILL GET TRACKED

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

Good luck today and let's work together to win some cash!

FEB 11 LOCKS

Hello again LOCKers.  I have been on a good run and have nother play I like that I want to get posted before the line moves against us.  I understand that the line often moves against my play, but that is why I post them as early as I can.  There is really nothing more I can do than that and I hope that some people see the play early enough to get the best line.

First play for tomorrow (Saturday) NOT A LOCK! will be Washington State at Oregon under 144.5.  Usually for a total rto be set around 145 or higher you need at least one of the teams to be considered  "run-at-all-costs" type of team.  In my opinion, neither of these teams are this way.  Yes, both have put up some big totals recently, but mostly because of their competition and they way they push the ball.  Neither team is afraid of running, but I think without either purposely trying to force the action, this game will settle in under 140.  Oregon is not the same team they used to be and Altman does try to coach a "normal" style of college basketball where defense is played and half-court offense is valued, as opposed to the style that Washington or Oregon State play, which is "Get ball.  Run with ball.  Shoot ball ASAP."  Washington State has scored under 67 points in 7 of their last 10 games, clearing 67 only at home against Cal and Stanford and last game at Oregon State who is falling apart and slowly dying with their "run at all costs" style that is getting them blown out by inferior teams.  I think this game is looking like a 67-61 kind of game which is an easy under.  Good luck on Saturday everyone.

Early games I am on:

Cuse -11 (2x)

Miami/FSU UNDER 131 (1x)

Virginia +10

Wofford -1

Delaware/Ga State OV 125.5 


bk 

Good Morning Everyone ! My favorite play today is The San Antonio Spurs -10 
    

• Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Spurs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Plus New Jersey lost last night to Detroit by 17 points. Now they have to travel back home to take on the Red Hot Spurs.       Good Luck If you play it. Good Luck Today Everyone !!!

Just a few observations...

1.  Posting plays after the game has started is just stupid.  If the thread is meant to share info (which it is), the only thing you gain from posting your plays after the game has start is personal attention.  Have seen this recently with people admitting, "couldn't post earlier but this is what I played...."

2.  I've noticed many of us like to post when we lose a "tough luck game", like I would have won if not for the foul with 2 secs left, etc. But these same people fail to acknowledge when they win a game for simlilar reason.

3.  I can predict what the success rate of any "system play" will be, 50/50.  If there was a "system" that worked, the guys in vegas would already know what it is and would adjust the lines accordingly.

Let's use this thread the way it was intended, sharing information about conferences you familiar with.

Goodnight all, see you in the morning.  Hopefully there will be some nice A-14 plays.

GL ALL!

My first LOCK, and maybe my last..lol

 Notre Dame under 139, hook.  ND loves to drain the shot clock, DePaul likes to open it up and run, but ND will control the pace of the game.  14 pt spread could mean ND closes up shop and runs the full 35 seconds off the play clock in the last 5 min.  8 of ND's last 10 have gone under.  The only reason this game is listed over 130 is just in case DePaul hangs around.  In ND games where the o/u was 130 and above, 4 of the 5 stayed under.


I also like the 1st half under in the Butler game, but its not posted on my book 

1.  Posting plays after the game has started is just stupid.  If the thread is meant to share info (which it is), the only thing you gain from posting your plays after the game has start is personal attention.  Have seen this recently with people admitting, "couldn't post earlier but this is what I played...."

2.  I've noticed many of us like to post when we lose a "tough luck game", like I would have won if not for the foul with 2 secs left, etc. But these same people fail to acknowledge when they win a game for simlilar reason.

3.  I can predict what the success rate of any "system play" will be, 50/50.  If there was a "system" that worked, the guys in vegas would already know what it is and would adjust the lines accordingly.

1.  Agreed.  If you are just posting to let everyone know you played it, lame.  But, sometimes reality you can't post it.  AND, if others on the thread are on the same game, nothing wrong with chiming in and saying you are too.  That being said, coming on here and 'claiming' victories and wins when you didn't post a game is LAME.  Being excited for a win, especially when others were on it, acceptable.  Definitely NO NEED for anyone coming on here and 'touting' their card after the games started or ended.

2.  This, I understand.  You post a game, it's going well, last minute you get FFED.  It happens.  I know the thread wasn't meant for a 'vent' session, but why not just get it out in a post and move on.  Granted, if you post a REAL PLAY, and it comes down to a last second shot or a missed free throw, you should probably just move on and not post.  But, I get it, we're all gamblers and sometimes we just can't help but throw a post out there about how it all went wrong.  In poker, EVERYONE has bad beat stories, and NO ONE wants to hear them. But, we all tell them, and we all hear them.

3.  Systems are a mess.  Usually, they are ONLY good in HINDSIGHT.  Math is a fooked up thing, and everything eventually evens out.  However, if you have something relevant to the current teams, or situations, and it's hot, no harm in posting it.  All 'systems' are different, and the term itself is VERY misused and ambiguous.  I use a 'system' for NFL teams coming off a bye that are favored on the road.  It's hit pretty well over the last 4-5 years. BUT, it really only applies to about 4-5 games a year (on avg) AND, I ONLY use that info with the other pertinent info about the game and matchups.  With any system, sample size and simplicity are key.  We can all go back and 'spin' the results and stats of the past and find some 'system' that is 'hitting', but the bottom line is, how does it apply GOING FORWARD.  

4.  Cap offs are lame.  They prove nothing, and they are not what the board is about.  Granted, I admit, A LOT of what I post might not be "what the board is about", but trying to out-do another poster is completely pointless.  It's NEVER proved anything before, and it's not going to now.  No one is "going away" for a week, month year or forever, period.  If you want to make a wager amongst yourselves, more power to you.  Make the arrangements are do what you have to.


That's all I have to say!!  I have a clogged up toilet that I monitoring, and a half full rum drink.  Can't find a link to watch the stupid Aussie Aleague game I bet, and I am a bit cranky about it. But, I have some 'Workaholics' on my DVR about to set my mind at ease.

See you fools in the morning!


bk

Just adding the rest of the stats that kurtis copy and pasted from covers.com... Don't mean anything by it, just showing the rest of the trends because the short version could be a little misleading..
Also the nets just their (semi)stud rookie m.brooks back from a broken toe injury, but it is still the nets and sa is still on fire as of late 

San Antonio

• Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Spurs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Spurs are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Spurs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest.
• Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.

New Jersey

• Nets are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. NBA Southwest.
• Nets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Nets are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Nets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 0 days rest.
• Nets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Nets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
• Nets are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Saturday games.
• Nets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
• Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

 

more trends on the sa/nets game..

Head to Head

• Spurs are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in New Jersey.
• Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
• Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in New Jersey.
• Spurs are 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings.
• Road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

 

Not a LOCK play but i am leaning on Depaul + 14 and the over 138.  I think ND is in a huge letdown spot after winning so many in a row as an underdog. The fuel for their fire was playing the poor us underdog role but now that they are expected to win and a huge favorite they may not play as sharp as the previous stretch of games.  As far as the total is concerned ND will run a little and push the tempo when their offense is really in a groove as it was in the Marquette game.  This is a game where Vegas will look to recover some of the losses they have incurred on ND and Under money.  Look for a ND win and over with the score around 78-71

Good Luck!!

OK I'll be the first to step up on soccer this morning and take Man U ov 2.5 and on the match as a push. Final score 2-2

Morning gang,


Here we go:


CBB:  


Butler  +6.5

Penn St.  -3

Texas  -ML

N. Texas  +5


GL!!!!!             

Cap-offs are idiotic to the reason we are here.  We try to limit losing and you guys want to make sure somebody does.  Grow up and take care of your own business. 

Got a good chuckle while going back and reading last night's thread.  Good stuff guys.

any thoughts on Lou/WV?

Lou has been on fire while WV has looked medicore and hasnt protected home court.....yet WV is -4.

Lou has huge game vs Cuse next, possible look ahead????

LOCK #1
Bayern Munchen/Kaiserslauten OVER 3

LOCK #2
Peterbourough/West Ham OVER 2.5


Both Winners!

Good Luck

An injury to keep an eye on in the Big 12 today is with Texas Tech point guard Javarez "Bean" Willis.  The Red Raiders are a 6 point home dog to Oklahoma today and the game doesn't tip until 7:00 CDT tonight, so it may be too early to know his status.  Right now he is listed as questionable.  He left their last game vs.  KSU with an ankle injury and didn't return.  Texas Tech already struggles offensively, but without the Bean in the lineup I believe they will struggle even more.  One of his primary back-ups at that spot was a Freshman kid named Wagner who was just lost for the season with a knee injury against Texas on Feb. 4 (or thereabouts).

If indeed TExas Tech is depleted at guard. I think we may have a nice spot to cash with Oklahoma tonight as a road favorite.  Lon Kruger will know how to attack any weakness presented in a game and he can make in-game adjustments to do so.
The problem is we are talking about two bad teams in OU and TT, and OU is just 1-4 in road conference games this year.

Waiting to see if anyone has more information on Willis, but my early lean is on the Sooners -6.

I'll try to get back later with my take on the other Big 12 games.

woooo Man U goal!

South Carolina at Arkansas

THE STORY: Arkansas blew its most recent opportunity to make a move up the SEC standings with a humiliating 81-59 loss at Georgia, but gets another shot against a team with one conference win in South Carolina. The Razorbacks, one of the most enigmatic teams in the country, are winless away from home but have yet to lose at Bud Walton Arena. The Gamecocks, on the other hand, are just 1-6 on the road and have dropped four straight and eight of their last nine contests.

TV: 1:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network; ESPN3.com.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (9-14, 1-8 SEC): The Gamecocks have shot better than 41.8 percent from the field in just one conference tilt, which happened to be the same game they managed to score 66 points – the most they have scored in an SEC contest (Feb. 2 at Florida). They have shot less than 34 percent in two consecutive games and three of their last five, scoring less than 60 points each time. South Carolina’s leading scorers – Malik Cooke (12.2 points per game) and Bruce Ellington (10.7) – have combined for 85 of the team’s 235 assists.

ABOUT ARKANSAS (16-8, 4-5 SEC): In the loss to the Bulldogs, the Razorbacks surrendered 19 more points than any other conference opponent had allowed to the lowest-scoring team in the SEC. Despite the setback, Arkansas got a lift from Mardracus Wade as he hit all five of his attempts from the 3-point line, where he is shooting 50 percent for the season. Opponents are converting at a mere 29.9 rate behind the arc against the Razorbacks.

TIP-INS

1. At home, Arkansas is beating opponents by an average margin of 16.7 points. Conversely, the average margin of defeat in its seven road losses is 13.3 points.
2. With 60 blocked shots, freshman Hunter Mickelson needs one more to surpass Oliver Miller for the school record by a first-year Razorback.
3. With a victory on Saturday, Arkansas will record 17 home wins in a season for the first time in school history.

LOCK IT UP ARKANSAS -5..........In some books its 5.5 its still a lock in my opinion up to 7