Where's Oswalt ?

Who does Roy Oswalt sign with ?

From what I hear, RO is good friends with Nolan Ryan, which makes a deal there a bit of a problem.
Ryan has become a pretty tough businessman and he wants to win.

RO seems to fit with Cardinals a little better and he may be waiting to hear what the word is on Wainright. Is Wainy ready or not?
If not, RO can take that spot and maybe win a regular spot later on.

I don't think he'd want to go back to Houston, but who knows ... a job is a job? They might win 75 games this year. Not like they won all that much in the past with him.

I don't see the Reds landing him.

I have heard that the Cardinals aren't too interested in him, but thats just rumors. I really have an odd feeling the Reds land him. I wouldn't mind having him. Not that I am not happy without him, but it would be some nice depth and we can see what happens. With that said, the rotation would look to be Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey and Oswalt (not in any oreder).

Now the reason I am saying he falls to the Reds, its late into the offseason, doesn't have a whole lot of interest (i.e. the price is trailing off alot more than he expected.) I think that he probably is going to sign a one to two million dollar contract. This isn't to far out of the Reds budget and Jocketty likes the guy. Thats what I think. But who knows?

There's been plenty of interest in the guy, but he's saying no to all the offers, if we can believe the wires.
He was offered big contracts by the Botox and by Detroit, allegedly. Said no to them. So if the price is falling, it's his own fault.
But no way on the $1M ... not for a guy who can still pitch, even if he is hurt. The salary structure isn't like that.

All the same, I think I might disagree that I'd rather have him than Mike Leake. Short term, maybe ... long run, no.

It would be a nice pickup not only for pitching but for another very good vetern to help with Chapman's development

That sounds like something Dusty would say. We have coaches to help Chapman. This is Chapmans 3rd year. time to stop babying him and lets see some production out of him.

 I guess I'm old school, but how long does it take for a player to develop anymore ? 3 or 4 years in the minors then another 3 or 4 years in the majors.
(Drew Stubbs)
 At this rate by the time he develops he'll be a free agent.

Back to the subject. I don't see Roy Oswalt coming to the Reds. Not with the kind of money thats out there.

I'd guess Mario Soto is working with Chapman but the Reds have been pretty quiet about his chances in the rotation.
I think everyone is right in assuming he will start the year in the minors and get the call early in ... say, May.
In any event, I have not had much confidence in our coaching and have wanted a change there for at least 2 years.
Nobody listens to me ...

Sorry guys i would absolutely try and sign him... I would then go with a rotation of Cueto, Latos, Oswalt, Leake, and Baily.. ''

Im not sold on Arroyo at all. Throwing 85 MPH straight faseball is not cutting it. Didnt he give up 40+ HR's last year?? I dont care if half of them were solo's, He is the one who shouldnt be givin a spot. I sure hope he has to battle for it.

I don't think anybody wants Arroyo in there if he pitches like he did.
The problem is that it's fairly obvious he IS going to be in there, so we're all pretty much resigned to that.
How bad does it get before he's out? It was bad last year ... so you answer that question.

Sad.

It was a bad contract that is catching up with them.  Just like Aaron Harrang, he is not close to being worth 12 million a year.  But it is what it is and that's why we'll continue to see him, even if he goes 0-15. 

I really think the longer ol'Roy waits to sign, the more likely he is to hang it up.  Seems like he wants to play on his terms or not at all.

Unfortunately, I don't believe Aroldis Chapman wil have a chance to start with the Reds. If Dusty has anything to say about it (he will) I say he starts in Louisville.

I think the Reds have to give Bailey a shot, because he's been out of options for 2 years, and can't hide on the DL forever. I think if Leake and Arroyo occupy the same rotation, they better have a lefty or a power pitcher separateing them, or the oppositions timing at the plate wil look like batting practice. So, I'm not a fan of pitching Cueto and Latos at the #1-#2 spots...I think the Reds better get a softabller like Leake or Arroyo in between them.


So, Roy Oswalt would be a better 3rd or 4th option than available Reds, IMO....but isn't worth more than $5-6 million, IMO. For a third of that, I'd give a job to Bailey. Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Oswalt, Leake and Bailey is one too manyeven  without Chapman, and although I think Bailey's got a better chance throwing 135 innings a year as a long man than 200 as a starter, I don't believe the powers that be in Cincinnati agree with me, and Leake would probably be the odd man out of the rotation if Oswalt is signed, or on the long shot Chapman makes the rotation...I'm not a huge Leake fan, but you can't argue with success, and his 2011 performance deserves another shot in 2012.


I HOPE Oswalt dislikes the Cardinals, but I can't see why the Braves or Rangers don't make sense.      

Needing a lefty in the rotation only leads me to Jeff Francis.

Boy, just gotta really believe the Reds are going to try to deal Bailey.

I still like a deal with him and a couple of other guys for David Wright.

Hell, put Wright in LF until Rolen decides to retire.

I think he signs with the Reds. I do not trust Homer Bailey. His injury history and lack of focus have turned me off on him. While he does have masterful games. They are just few and far between.

Leake is interesting factor. He is improving but he struggles late in the season.

Chapman is the unknown factor.

So I say we go get him and get rid of unknown factors

Get Oswalt
Get rid of Chapman

Sound strategy.

Time changes everything, except some people's expectations. It's a pretty bleak market when A.J. Burnett is the big MLB rumor mill topic.


How many "known" factors are there in MLB ? None, I'd say.

Anyone can get hurt, especially those that have frequently done so. There is risk in both Bailey and Oswalt, the question is, how much is that risk worth vs. the PROBABILITY of results ? 


Roy Oswalt has been a big name top of the rotation pitcher, and has been one of the bigger names as a middle of the rotation starter, and as such, will one day be given an opportunity to be a big name back of the rotation starter, if his price and health allows him to be.  

Aroldis Chapman has thrown harder than anyone in MLB history, since they had technology to measure such a thing, and he's a lefty... I'd say those two things alone say he deserves a chance if anyone does. His strikeout to walk ratio, and opponenets batting average against him suggest he'll get his chance. Still, he Chapman has minor league options, and as is often the case, that may mean he'll have to wait for others to fail before he gets a real chance.


Unproven ? Yu Darvish was worth a $107 million gamble to the Rangers, and Yoenis Cespedes was worth at least a $42 million offer to the Marlins. The Reds have $30 mil or so in Chapman, but have about 3 more seasons to get their money's worth.  

Homer Bailey ? The Reds understandably want to get return on investment for a former #1 pick, but they have relative chumpchange in him, and without minor league options, time is up. Bailey has to produce, or he'll be gone...if he's not a foregone conclusion already. 
     

Beyond the historical perspective of time in the league and past results (which apply to comparable age) ... there is ZERO evidence to suggest that Homer Bailey is a WORSE option than Roy Oswalt at this point in his career.

If all you are going on is what the guy did in 2006 or something, that was 6 years ago.

Bailey doesn't have the career numbers, considering if Oswalt pitched for the Astros last year instead of when they were good ... well, you get the point.

If you are going to gamble on a rotation guy for 2012, take a 34-year-old who clearly isn't interested in the team he signs with (or he would have) and has a bad back, a diminished fastball (or else the Phils would have signed him again.)

Or take Homer Bailey, who might be good enough, might not be.

I gamble on Bailey, sorry. I don't squander the budget on a guy who has 1 year left, obviously doesn't want to be in Cincinnati and ... well screw Roy Oswalt ...

I don't know about Arroyo. He did start out the year with mono, and that can have long term effects. I hope he comes back and has a good year. I guess we will find out early in the season or spring training

The Red Killer.

Roy Oswalt.

I was able to see him in Philly.

I like him.

Still has good velocity and mechanics.

But, but, but...

He will give you about 4 good innings.  Then the back tightens.  He gets tired.  The mechanics
and pitch location start breaking down.  The result.  The ball starts leaving the ballpark.  Long relief is
the result.

An extended DL stint is almost a guarantee.

Can the Reds afford to spend 5-6 million on a 4 inning pitcher who almost certainly will go down
on the DL?

NO.

Personally, if the Reds had $5-6 mil MORE to spend, I would have rather they added it to the  $2.5 mil they paid Ludwick and gotten a $8.5 mil hitter.


Having young talent "depth" is kinda like having money in the bank...nice to leave some there for the unexpected, but if you never USE any of it, you might as well not have it.    

 

How many "known" factors are there in MLB ? None, I'd say.

Oh I dunno. If you ask me I'd say Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia are pretty KNOWN factors. About the ONLY two MLB players I would say that about. ZERO question marks with either of those two. ZERO.