Where's Oswalt ?

As reliability goes, I'd agree but there are more than just those two, depending on definition.
All the same, anybody can get hit by a line drive.
But if this is coming back around to our Reds staff, I think that's a big concern.
It isn't all about Dusty (Prior and Wood) either ... despite what the Cubs worms keep saying over and over again until it finally  became a real excuse.
I have believed that the Reds pitchers are not preparing properly for the game. I can't prove it but the results are pretty obvious.

This has nothing to do with Roy Oswalt, does it?

My point exactly.

Almost ALL pitchers (and players) get injured, it's just a matter of severity, and time.

Therefore, by definition, there are NO sure things.

I know what Dr.J is suggesting- logical, relative probability of outcome...and of course I agree...

I'd rather take my chances on Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, or several dozen other pitchers I can think of, than Homer Bailey. I think the decision between Roy Oswalt and Homer Bailey however, is a lot more difficult. 

At 50-something, I can attest that I have "proven" to be able to do things I wouldn't bet on myself being able to do anymore. I think there is plenty of room for speculation that an increasingly injured 34 year old Roy Oswalt many not be able to do some things he did at 29...possibly, some things that Homer Bailey MAY prove better at doing in the near future than Roy Oswalt.

What Roy Oswalt has that Homer Bailey doesn't, may just be knowledge, guts, moxy, toughness, all the things wrapped up into what is  "experience"...but it has to boil down to execution to work. Sometimes, the body refuses to perform to what the mind demands, increasingly so as you age.  

I'm guilty of blaming coaches, too...as a former coach, I know there are always weaknesses to improve in a player, or a team. As a fan, I don't see evidence anyone is working on them unless I see results on the field... It doesn't always mean no one is working on them, or that for whatever reason, better results are possible even if they are trying to improve. 

I'd say most players want to do better, and would if they could. Some can, some won't or can't. Coaches sometimes help and sometimes make things worse...It's usually tough to tell from the 2nd deck which is which.   

Honestly from what I'm reading, I don't see this deal happening for the Reds.  There's a story out that he's waiting for the Rangers to clear some money.  I think he wants to play there, it just makes too much sense for him.  It's close to where he played in Houston and him and Nolan Ryan are friends I'm pretty sure.  But it's no big loss for the Reds.  He's an injury risk. 

I'd say odds are against the Reds signing Oswalt too...so did Walt Jocketty. I thought Yoenis Cespedes was a lock to sign with the Marlins, too...but I was wrong. 

Friends ? Not sure that makes a difference all the time... Oswalt and the Astros boss were friends too, but he still offed Roy.

Erik Bedard is an injury risk. So is Jake Peavy. Roy Oswalt, is too, but more of a risk to lose 10-12 starts, than a season...and he's "only" the same age as Roy Halladay.   

Quip here on the CBS board:

Oswalt waiting to sign with Texas?: The Cincinnati Enquirer reports Reds GM Walt Jocketty said he hasn't had contact with Roy Oswalt's agents in the last week, and Jocketty offered up his own opinion on the Oswalt sweepstakes. “I think he’s waiting for Texas to clear money,” Jocketty said.

(Updated 02/13/2012) Injury Report No information available at this time (Updated 2/14/12). Fantasy Analysis It's interesting to hear Jocketty say Oswalt wants to sign with Texas. At least it's a legit reason why the veteran right-hander hasn't signed with a team yet, despite being linked to the Reds and Cardinals. Oswalt is likely going to sign somewhere before the start of the 2012 season and should be in a rotation. Consider Oswalt more of a mid-to-late-round Fantasy pick on Draft Day. Don't forget about his chronic back problems.
(Updated 02/13/2012).

Sounds like Oswalts agent is trying to push Texas a bit, by making them think they might lose him. Agents fall right in there with Lawyers and Politicians. Pretty much do anything for a buck.

Sports Agent IMO, is an occupation that could probably be avoided completely and no one would miss them.

You know the difference in a hooker and a lawyer and a politician ?

The hooker will stop screwing you after you die, the lawyer and politician won't.

Obviously RoyBoy is going to pitch for someone this summer, and I truly hope it is an AL team.
Then again, the Reds seemed to have a lot of trouble with Rule 5 lefthanders with an 88-mph fastball and something of a slider.
The really good pitchers just no-hit us.

But I'd guess Nolan Ryan knows as much about how to handle an agent as he did when he pitched to a September callup -- without his best control.

That could be what the rub is ... Ryan is telling RoyBoy's agent to stop kicking the can ... spring training will go on with or without Oswalt.

Ask Ryan Madson if his illustrious, infamous agent Scott Boras, has lived up to his claim to always get the best deal possible for his clients...

I have no doubt the Phillies offer to Madson was withdrawn, and spent on Jonathan Papelbon instead, while Boras was stonewalling the Phillies trying to squeeze a little more scratch out of them. I think people started calling Boras' bluff after it was leaked that Boras "invented" other team's offer(s) in the Manny Ramirez  Dodgers negotiations (the Dodgers raised their offer twice chasing a phantom "better" offer in signing Manny).

Agents are usually impediments to progress, and in Madson's case (and maybe Oswalt's), sometimes actually cost clients money, and they wind up having to play for teams they really didn't want to play for in the first place.

 I don't understand any of it, when we're talking about players that have already made more money than Bernie Madoff stole. I'd play for who I wanted to, for whatever salary they could play me and tell MLB and my agent to kiss my arse. If Oswalt really wanted to play for the Rangers and would do at at $1 mil, I think they would make room for him, as example... and Oswalt's kids wouldn't go hungry because of it. 

I especially despised the concept that Pujols would "thank" the Cardinals for making him wealthy by taking the Angels $250 mil instead of the Cardinals $220 mil offer, or whatever it was. In my mind, after a certain amount, $20-$30 mil over the life of a 8 year deal isn't going to make an impact difference in your or your families life....doing something to give back makes a difference, and a hometown "discount" is a good start...many of these guys think their agents are people to be trusted...they look out for thier clients like pimps look out for hookers, IMO.