Beer's Bracket - 02/11/12

Here is my bracket as of right now… BRACKET.  Results from yesterday’s games were taken into consideration even though team records were not updated.  I’m hoping the bubble picture clears up after today's games* but I’m not counting on it.

Seed: Atlanta (S), Phoenix (W), Boston (E), St. Louis (M)
1: KENTUCKY (24-1), MISSOURI (22-2), SYRACUSE (24-1), OHIO STATE (21-3)
2: Baylor (20-3), North Carolina (20-4), DUKE (20-4), Kansas (19-5)
3: Wisconsin (19-6), UNLV (19-4), Michigan State (18-5), Georgetown (17-5)
4: Marquette (20-5), Florida (19-5), Michigan (17-7), SAN DIEGO STATE (18-3)

Last Six Pack: Miami (Fla.) (15-7), Xavier (16-8), Colorado State (14-7), Cincinnati (17-7), North Carolina State (18-7), Northwestern (15-8)

Added: Miami (Fla.) (15-7), Cincinnati (17-7), North Carolina State (18-7), Northwestern (15-8), LOYOLA-MARYLAND (18-5)
Dropped: Seton Hall (16-8), Arkansas (16-8), Dayton (14-9), Mississippi (14-9), Iona (19-5)

NIT 1 Seeds: Dayton (14-9), Texas (15-9), Arizona (17-8), Seton Hall (16-8)
NIT 2 Seeds: Wyoming (16-5), UCF (16-6), Washington (16-8), Arkansas (16-8)
NIT 3 Seeds: Pittsburgh (15-10), Mississippi (14-9), Northern Iowa (15-10), Massachusetts (18-6)
NIT 4 Seeds: Iona (19-5), Saint Joseph's (15-10), Oklahoma (13-10), Oregon (17-7)

Moving Up: MISSOURI (22-2), Georgetown (17-5), Wisconsin (19-6), Florida (19-5), Florida State (16-7), Virginia (19-4), Mississippi State (19-5), Louisville (19-5), TEMPLE (18-5), SOUTHERN MISS (18-4),
Moving Down: Baylor (20-3), Marquette (20-5), Creighton (21-4), MURRAY STATE (20-1), Vanderbilt (17-7), Kansas State (17-6), West Virginia (16-9), Illinois (16-8), Connecticut (15-8), CALIFORNIA (19-6),

First Four Games at Dayton: March 13-14
Tue Game1: (13M) North Carolina State vs. Northwestern
Tue Game2: (16E) LIU-Brooklyn vs. Stony Brook
Wed Game1: (12W) Colorado State vs. Cincinnati
Wed Game2: (16W) Norfolk State vs. Mississippi Valley State

* Beer's Big Bubble Battles
ACC: Miami (Fla.) 15-7 (6-3), NCAA #12 at Florida State 16-7 (7-2), NCAA #5
ATL10: Dayton 14-9 (4-5), NIT #1 at Fordham 9-13 (2-7), HOME
ATL10: Duquesne 13-9 (5-4), NIT #7 at St. Bonaventure 12-9 (5-4), CBI #2
ATL10: Massachusetts 18-6 (7-3), NIT #3 at Saint Joseph's 15-10 (5-5), NIT #4
ATL10: Saint Louis 18-5 (7-3), NCAA #10 at La Salle 17-8 (6-4), NIT #6
ATL10: Xavier 16-8 (7-3), NCAA #12 at Temple 18-5 (7-2), NCAA #7
BIG12: Kansas State 17-6 (6-5), NCAA #8 at Texas 15-9 (5-6), NIT #1
BIG12: Oklahoma 13-10 (3-8), NIT #4 at Texas Tech 7-16 (0-11), HOME
BIGE: Cincinnati 17-7 (7-4), NCAA #12 at Marquette 20-5 (9-3), NCAA #4
BIGE: South Florida 13-10 (7-4), NIT #5 at Providence 13-12 (2-10), HOME
COL: Hofstra 8-18 (2-12), HOME at Drexel 20-5 (12-2), NIT #5
MIDAM: Ball State 11-10 (4-6), HOME at Kent State 16-6 (7-3), NIT #8
MIDAM: Ohio 18-5 (7-3), NIT #6 at Eastern Michigan 9-14 (5-5), HOME
MIDAM: Western Michigan 9-14 (4-6), HOME at Buffalo 14-6 (8-2), NIT #7
MVC: Illinois State 16-9 (8-6), CBI #3 at Northern Iowa 15-10 (6-8), NIT #3
MWC: Colorado State 14-7 (4-3), NCAA #12 at TCU 12-10 (3-4), HOME
MWC: Wyoming 16-5 (4-3), NIT #2 at New Mexico 18-4 (5-2), NCAA #10
NEA: Mount St. Mary's 6-18 (4-9), HOME at Wagner 20-4 (11-2), NIT #7
PAC12: Colorado 14-8 (8-4), NIT #6 at Arizona State 8-16 (4-8), HOME
PAC12: Utah 4-19 (2-10), HOME at Arizona 17-8 (8-4), NIT #1
PAC12: Washington State 12-11 (5-7), HOME at Oregon 17-7 (8-4), NIT #4
SEC: Alabama 16-7 (5-4), NCAA #9 at LSU 13-10 (3-6), NIT #5
SEC: Auburn 13-11 (3-7), HOME at Mississippi 14-9 (4-5), NIT #3
SEC: South Carolina 9-14 (1-8), HOME at Arkansas 16-8 (4-5), NIT #2
SUMM: South Dakota State 17-7 (11-3), NIT #7 at UMKC 9-15 (4-10), HOME
USA: East Carolina 8-11 (3-7), HOME at Marshall 13-10 (5-5), NIT #6
USA: UCF 16-6 (7-3), NIT #2 at Southern Miss 18-4 (7-2), NCAA #7

Right now our big differences is that I have:

NCST, BYU, and Cincinnati OUT
and
Wyoming, UCF, and Seton Hall in.

Differences in Seed (2+/-)
Saint Louis:
Beer: 10 Seed
Hoosier: 12 Seed

Florida:
Beer: 4 Seed
Hoosier: 7 Seed

Temple:
Beer: 7 Seed
Hoosier: 5 Seed

UCONN:
Beer: 10 Seed
Hoosier: 8 Seed

Miami (Fla.):
Beer: 12 Seed
Hoosier: 10 Seed

Harvard:
Beer: 10 Seed
Hoosier: 8 Seed

Florida:

Beer: 4 Seed

Hoosier: 7 Seed

Florida will get higher than a 7 seed.

They probably will, but right now are they really better than a 6 or 7 seed?

Let's compare to a 6 seeded Gonzaga:

Top 25 (RPI) Wins:
Florida: 0
Gonzaga: 1

RPI:
Florida: 14
Gonzaga: 17

Losses 100+:
Florida: 2
Gonzaga: 0

Overall Record:
Florida: 19-5
Gonzaga: 19-4

SOS:
Florida: 49
Gonzaga: 59

25 - 75 RPI Wins:
Florida: 5
Gonzaga: 4

VERY similar to a 6 seed.

Florida is proving my point right now why they are a7 seed. Down by FIFTEEN at HOME against Tennessee.

Does this mean you have Missouri ahead of Syracuse ?

Does this mean you have Missouri ahead of Syracuse ?

No... I have Syracuse ahead of Missouri.  I just didn't post here that the seeds were not in order.  Sorry for the confusion.  On my blog, I listed:

Championship: Atlanta (S) / Phoenix (W) winner vs. Boston (E) / St. Louis (M) winner.

That put the Kentucky / Missouri regions against the Syracuse / Ohio State regions in the finals.

hoosierguy - Thanks for the feedback.  I agree with your thoughts on Florida.  I am not seeding them where I think they belong... rather where I think the committee would put them.  Totally agree that their resume is not very impressive.

Today does not really clear up the bubble situation for me.  In my mind, Texas probably takes Cincy's spot while Colorado State might be ready to move out as well.

Florida is proving my point right now why they are a7 seed. Down by FIFTEEN at HOME against Tennessee.

I was with ya before they got spanked at home to Tenn today Hoosier. Florida is the most over-rated team in the country. Their only two good wins are both at home against FSU which is Jekyll and Hyde and Vandy which really is about a 6 or 7 seed team too.

Not sure if you guys heard, but Memphis is "moving on up to the east side!"


5 seed when done 

Always great work Beer, but there is no chance in heck Wisconsin can get a 3 seed over Marquette. MU has a solidly better RPI, a better record, a better conference record and yes they won at the KOHL center.

tnzazz – Memphis is moving up but I’m not sure if they will hit a 5 seed.  They don’t have any “Bad” losses but they also don’t have any “Great” wins.  Their next 3 games are against RPI 170+ teams.  If they win all of them and then beat Marshall and UCF, they would certainly be making a case for themselves.

mr.hockey - Agree... Marquette looks good!  I actually had them ahead of Wisconsin but had to swap them to help me with bracketing procedures.  Looking at their draw, which path would you rather take?

(5S) Florida State (16-7) vs. (12S) LONG BEACH STATE (16-6) @Columbus
(4S) Marquette (20-5) vs. (13S) MIDDLE TENNESSEE (21-4) @Columbus

(6S) Louisville (19-5) vs. (11S) CALIFORNIA (19-6) @Portland
(3S) Wisconsin (19-6) vs. (14S) NEVADA (18-4) @Portland

This kinda depends. I think id rather face Nevada than Middle Tennesse but Portland is closer to Nevada so that is tough. I would definitely rather face FSU than UL again(but we wouldnt be allowed to face UL). Last year we got Cuse in the 2nd game but that was because the BE had so many teams. Overall I like the draw you gave us better because if we can force FSU out into a scoring game we got them where we want em and LBSU while very good suits our style of play pretty nicely.

But after the Sweet 16 I'd obviously MUCH rather draw Baylor than UK. There are two teams we have no chance to beat and thats the length of UK and UNC.  

Cincy has an RPI of 92.  Correct me if I am wrong but isn't the worse ever RPI to get an at large bid was 74 ?

I don't see how the committee would allow any team with an RPI in the 80s+ to get an at large seems like a crazy high number to let in.

Thoughts ?

tnzazz – Memphis is moving up but I’m not sure if they will hit a 5 seed.  They don’t have any “Bad” losses but they also don’t have any “Great” wins.  Their next 3 games are against RPI 170+ teams.  If they win all of them and then beat Marshall and UCF, they would certainly be making a case for themselves.

I agree.  There next couple of games are bad, but then we have @Marshall, UCF, and @ Tulsa.  I think we need to win out and make it to the CUSA championship game to get a 5 seed, but it can be done. 

I haven't really started doing locations in my bracket yet, but since you have I have a question for you.  Since you have Wisconsin as a 3 seed, why not send them to Columbus instead of Marquette? Punishing the Badgers for a 3-seed and sending them to Portland doesnt really seem fair since they try to reward teams if at all possible, but maybe i'm missing something because I'll be honest I get a little confused with all the rules and regulations for the selection committee to consider when placing teams. 

Cincy has an RPI of 92.  Correct me if I am wrong but isn't the worse ever RPI to get an at large bid was 74?  I don't see how the committee would allow any team with an RPI in the 80s+ to get an at large seems like a crazy high number to let in.

I am very much struggling with Cincy’s RPI and I think you’re right… 74 was the worst RPI to ever get in.  In my opinion, Cincy needs to have a HUGE finish to the season if they want a bid.

Since you have Wisconsin as a 3 seed, why not send them to Columbus instead of Marquette?

You are right… I’m sure the 3 seed will stay closer to home.  When I swapped Wisconsin with Marquette to follow the other procedures, I should’ve swapped the locations as well.  If you remember, post a link to your next bracket when it's ready... I'll take all the help I can get!!!

It's HERE... I'm in the same boat as you are with my last four to eight teams in right now, it's like pulling teeth trying to find the right teams to put in the tournament right now.