young talent worth a damn?

So we're counting on this young talent to turn things around in the near future. But what if this young talent doesn't pan out. Singleton, for example. He's a high OBP guy, which is good. But he's had a 500 slugging once in his minor league career. If we're counting on this kid to be the next Bags, think we're gonna be disappointed. Cosart. He's hittable and he has a high walk rate. That's a bad combo for the AL. 


I've been underwhelemed by the young talent that's been brought up thus far, Castro, Wallace, Lyles. We just might be the doormat of the AL west for quite a long time.  


We waited too long to trade the vets we had, and we didn't get anough in return for them. Those last few Drayton years are gonna retard the development of this team. 

I wouldn't be too worried about Singleton if I were you. OBP plays at the major league level, and he showed some nice power in Corpus last year. He has also been young for his level every year in the minors so far.

As for the rest of the system, there's a lot of talent diversification. We're not just relying on two or three guys panning out; we have several positions with two or three high-upside plays at different minor league levels. All they need is an average major league success rate and they'll a core worth building around in 2-3 years. And that's the other thing; Houston is a big market. Crane will flesh out the pay-roll once it's worth doing.

Oh, and don't be down on Castro, either. He OPS'd well over .800 against righties last year with a great BB:K ratio. He just needs to stay healthy and he'll be a very productive player.

Wallace was a high OBP guy in the minors, too. Underwhelming in the majors. And Castro, great, he hitrs righties a bit. He's completely helpless against lefties. If he can't hit lefties, he ain't a starter. The talent that's been brought up thus far doesn't inspire confidence. 

This team is hilarious. The highest career OPS we've got in our projected starting lineup is Lowrie at .743, I believe. We don't have one friggin guy above .750. Wallace's career OPS is .699. JD Martinez, Altuve, Castro, Wallace, Lyles. Unimpressive. What if this core we've got in the minors is more of the same, is all I'm saying. 

I wouldn't be too worried about Singleton if I were you. OBP plays at the major league level, and he showed some nice power in Corpus last year. He has also been young for his level every year in the minors so far.

I know I'd be happy if the A's had a first baseman in the system with the yearly stats Jonathan Singleton has been producing... Smashing 21 home runs in 460 at bats translates to roughly 30 home runs in 600 at bats average major league season). He is also still very young (recently turned 21) and most players don't hit their power peak until after they are turn 25.

Wallace was a high OBP guy in the minors, too. Underwhelming in the majors. And Castro, great, he hitrs righties a bit. He's completely helpless against lefties. If he can't hit lefties, he ain't a starter. The talent that's been brought up thus far doesn't inspire confidence.

A's fan not meaning to completely intrude on your guy's messageboard here, but I jsut wanted to point out that platoon players can sometimes be very underrated. The A's got 37 home runs out of 470 platoon at bats from Brandon Moss and Chris Carter at first base last season and that was a big contributing factor to their second half push. Moss started in June and Carter in July, so you are looking at roughly half a season there. In other words, over the course of a full season that platoon would get close to 60 home runs (provided the performance was sustained of course). I don't care if it is one, two, three or even more players platooning, most teams would kill for 60 home runs from one position on the diamond.

If you have a guy who hits righties but can't learn to hit lefties then all you need is a guy who hits lefties to complement him and you are set.

And the pitching, the hilarious pitching. I'll say one thing for this team, it's gonna be entertaining. It's gonna be like watching an episode of Mystery Science Theatre, so bad, it's entertaining. This is the projected rotation. 



Norris        4.42 ERA

Harrell       3.93 ERA

Humber     4.87 ERA

White        6.03 ERA

Lyles         5.20 ERA



Those are all career ERAs. 4 of those guys are taking those ERAs to the AL, so they can only get worse. Norris is the best of the bunch, but he's a batting practice pitcher on the road. He had a 6.94 on the road in 2012, in the NL. He's gonna be pitching on the road in the AL in 2013. This is gonna be hysterical. If we don't have the worst pitching in all of baseball, I'll be surprised. If we don't have the worst pitching in the history of baseball, I'll be surprised.



Checked out the top 100 prospects over at MLB. We've got a grand total of 3, all hitters. Not one pitcher. And this team is gonna be competitive in a couple years? 
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Forgot about Cosart. He's the one pitching prospect in the top 100. He puts a ton of guys on base. That's exactly what we need in this rotation to imptrove it, a guy who is constantly pitching with guys on base. He's got a great fastball, evidently. Great. Tons of pitchers have great fastballs these days. I'd love to be optimistic, just don't see it.

A good comparsion would be the Nats. They were hideous, as we are, in 2008 and 09. They lost 100 games both years. Last year they nearly won 100. But they have accumulated impact talent along with the role players, the ordinary guys. Their young talent isn't just a bunch of Espinosas. They've got a Strasberg and a couple Zimmermans mixed in. 



That's what I see. We've accumulated a bunch of Espinosas. We don't have a Strasberg or a Zimmerman or a Harper. Just a collection of Espinosas.  

That can work, absolutely, at a position or 2. But as weak as we are offensively, we would have to platoon the entire figgin team. There aren't enough roster spots to do that. One does need starters, and I don't see any. If your lineup conists of a bunch of platoon players, you're in trouble. 



Regarding Singelton, I hope you're right. But this is the same organization that traded for Wallace. Wallace hit 20 dingers in the minors at about the same age. Hasn't come close in the majors. All I'm saying is, what if Singelton is another Wallace. And the guy just failed another drug test.  




We could easily, easily be the doormat of the AL west for years. I'm sure if someone had suggested to PITT fans in the early 90s that they might be doormats for years gto come, nobody would have believed it. 

Forgot to mention guys like Storen, Clippard and Desmond on the Nats, in addition to Strasberg, the 2 Zimmermans and Harper, even Morse. I don't see anyone like that on the Stros. We haven't developed any impact talent, at all. Nada. Zilch. Zero. One could see this resurgance of the Nats developing, cuz of the talent they were grooming. 



BTW, could any of our guys, our position players, start for any other team in either league. Could any of our starting pitchers start for any other team in either league. Sobering question.  

it is going to be a slow going for the Stro's. A lot of the players we got via trade are not sure fire prospects, but they all have a chance to be good. Where we will see the marked improvement will be in the draft. After that, free agency. Never forget Houston can maintain a payroll in the top 10 of the league. Once the team starts to show promise we will have the money to attract great FA's and with a lot of young talent we should be able to sell them on coming. 


2016 looks to be our year.... 

Well, you guys just got three good ones in the Jed Lowrie trade.

Chris Carter struggles to adapt to each new level (his average dips below .240) but neven loses his power and will typically bring that batting average back up to the .270 range once he gets a year under his belt. He has legitimate 40 home run potential. His defense isn't all that great at first or in the outfield but now you guys have a DH slot to work with.

Brad Peacock has very good potential as a starting pitcher as well. He's not ever going to develop into a Justin Verlander type, but should be a solid #2 option and might be major league ready this season.

Max Stassi is a catcher with a legitimate all-around bat. He is still very young and a couple years away from the majors, but he has the potential to hit close to .300 with over 25 home runs per year. Any time you can get that type of production out of your backstop...



I think you guys may have taken us to the woodshed on this trade.

If the A's can get Lowrie to play 120 games and hit .250 with around 25 HR, this trade will be pretty good for both sides. Carter is going to be in the lineup day in and day out. He'll get his ABs. I'm excited for the young talent the 'Stros are getting.

OJ, I wouldn't solely rely on how many top 100 prospects the Astros have to determine how well the farm system is improving. I'm just happy that people are ranking the 'Stros pipeline in the top 10. Back under Drayton the 'Stros bottomed out at 30 I believe. Worst farm system in the majors. And it caught up with us too. Just because the 'Stros don't have 15 guys in the top 100 doesn't mean a lot. Nationals got lucky with picks two years in a row. They got first pick in a draft where ONE player was the undoubted sure-fire first pick (Strasbourg/Harper). Two studs fell in their lap. Last year it wasn't as cut and dry for the Astros. There were several players that were predicted to go no. 1. Astros are making all the right moves now. Stocking up on prospects and trading older talent for more prospects. Once people start sticking in the majors, Astros can start adding talent via Free Agency/ Trades.

 

Regarding Singelton, I hope you're right. But this is the same organization that traded for Wallace. Wallace hit 20 dingers in the minors at about the same age. Hasn't come close in the majors. All I'm saying is, what if Singelton is another Wallace. And the guy just failed another drug test.

"About the same age" doesn't quite cut it. Singleton came out of high school, advanced leagues every year, and maintained an OPS of over .800 while doing so. Wallace played college ball. It's very difficult to gauge a player when they're mature for their league.

To wit, only three players finished last year with an OPS higher than Singleton's in the Texas league. Two were at least three years older than him, and the other was Oscar Taveras (pretty much unanimously considerad a top-five prospect in baseball).

Anything could happen still, but high school players' minor league stats hold true more often (as long as they're pushed through the system at a proper rate).

Ultimately, it comes down to pitching. Let's say for the sake of argument that all of the hitting prospects are legit. Our pitching is horrible, and the only guy in the pipeline is Cozart, who doesn't appear close to major league ready. We've lost over 100 games for two years. We've been moved to a tough division. The Rangers and Angels are gonna beat up this pitching for years to come. We could easily suck for another 6-10 years. It takes a while to develop pitching from scratch. And that's where we are. We are starting from scratch. 



However, I like the direction we're taking. I like the investments in scouting and prospects. It's the most interesting way to go. Organizations trhat develop their own talent base are always more interesting than those that buy their talent base. I'd much rather the Stros adopt the Tampa model than the Yankee model.  

And Cosart, because of his inability to repeat his delivery and his lack of deception, more than likely is gonna land in the bullpen. He's hittable, and one of the reasons seems to be hitters see the ball coming out of his hand easily. We drafted a kid in the first round last year, maybe he'll pan out. But he's years away. We don't have even one can't miss starting pitching prospect, like a Harvey or a Cole. The Pirates have 2. We don't have one. 




It's gonna be brutal for years, I'm afraid. It's a good thing this can't miss SS prospect is 18, cuz maybe by the time he's reaching his pime, we will have developed some pitching, maybe. 





 

Our pitching is horrible, and the only guy in the pipeline is Cozart

McCullers, Folty, and Tropeano disagree. All three have power fastballs, strike-out ability, and top-of-the-rotation potential. Then Musgrove, Woj, and a host of other righties make for a decent pool of middle-of-the-rotation/bullpen guys.

They're short on lefty pitching, and they could use another power arm or two for the bullpen. But I really like their top-end pitching prospects. I still don't think Tropeano gets the credit he deserves; I'm excited to see how he fares this season.

We've sucked for 6 years. We've given up more runs than we've scored 6 straight years. One of those years, by some crazy fluke, we ended up with a winning record. But we've already sucked for a 6 year stretch. Another 6 year stretch is more than plausible, considering the pitching talent base. 




I hope we are able to develop pitching. It remains to be seen that this organization can. Some teams have the knack, like Atlanta, Tampa and St Louis, some don't.




We've blown chunks before. The difference has always been, we've had pitching in the pipeline, ready to make an impact. We blew chunks in 75, but we had Richard, Forsch and Neikro on that team. I don't see a Richard, a Forsch or a Neikro on this team, or anywhere in the organization. We blew chunks again in 91, but we had Kile on that team, with Reynolds in the pipeline. And we make the trade for Hampton, add him later. I don't see a Kile or a Reynolds anywhere. Maybe this kid we drafted last year is a Kile or a Reynolds. We need him to be.




Still blows my mind that we had Kile and Schilling on that 91 team. We make the trade for Bags, but we trade away Schilling. And we had Santana in our organization at one point. We could have had Kile, Schilling and Santana in our rotation in the late 90s.