Not Any Time Soon

When will the Mets contend.   My best guess is 2018 at the earliest, which considering the strength of the Braves and Nationals is a good thing.  But they are not the obstacles that we have to overcome.   The first is the players that are playoff quality,  For sake of agument I concede that D'arnaud, Wheeler, Harvey, Niese, Davis and Wright at this time are all players that would find a home on almost any team that will contend this year even if it was off the bench.  I will also concede that between Murphy, Turner and Tejada we could find two IFs suitable of a contending team bench.  This leaves us short 2 middle infielders, 3 outfielders, 2 starting pitchers, a closer and the remainder of the bench.  I will forgo the bullpen.  I would also question any of the current team as having any role on a contending team. <br /> <br />  The second obstacle is the 162 M payback to the clawback fund due in 2015.  That 162 M under the best of circumstance was to be reduced by Irving Picards continued clawback efforts, a portion of which is owed to the Wilpons.  That process is dragging it's feet as Picard is tied up in courts around the globe as a result of the same agressive application of his interpretation of his charge that he employed in first seeking 1 billion from the Wilpons.   <br /><br />At some point in time the Mets will have to venture into the serious money region of free agency and that will not happen before the end of the 2015 season.  It will be the start of the building a contending team after 6 years of losing.  Perhaps Noah Syndergaard, Flores, Nimmo, and Gavin Cecchini will be able to fill some of the needs and other prospects will have been dealt to upgrade the team even if it is for a backup catcher or bench bats.  With the opening of the wallet for the 2016 season and the free agent availability and the competition it would be two years minimum to gather the pieces to seriously contend even within our division.  Unfortunately David Wright will be 36 opening day of 2018.  Last year the only starting 3B's 36 or older were Alex Rodriquez and Chipper Jones whoose last full season was 2003 at age 31 and last good season we 2007 at age 35.  This year the age 36 starters at third will be Michael Young and possibly A-Rod.  Worst case, Wright would upgrade the bench albeit an expense upgrade.   <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />

It won't take until 2018 Yogi.  

Sometimes at work I'll be asked to do a projection that goes three or five years out.  My response is that I can do it knowing what we know now, but if I could really tell what was going to happen economically in five years I wouldn't be working here, I'd be making millions in futures and real estate.

We have no clue what's going to transpire over the next few months never mind 2014-2017.  There will be trades made that you can't foresee, prospects that pan out, prospects that collapse.  Heck, Bryce Harper could have a career-ending injury, Gio Gonzalez could completely fall off the table, and so on.  

There's just no way to tell what'll happen year to year never mind 3 years from now. 

There's just no way to tell what'll happen year to year never mind 3 years from now.

To use our beloved Mets as an example.  Coming out of the 2006 or even 2007 season, having just picked up Johan Santana, not many on these boards would have guess a strong regression, unrecoverable through 2012.

Its amazing that no matter how certain the future seems, it never fails to surprise.

That being said, to throw my hat in the ring with a projection.  I'd say relevent in 2015.  Pitching wins championships, and that will have harvey at 3 seasons, and wheeler at 2 seasons experience to go along with Niese and IMO a purchased ace with Johan money. 

Yogi I must say you have become a supreme pessimist.

The Mets have the starting rotation pieces in place now, granted they need expereince.

What is missing is the position players mainly outfield and the bullpen.

Thats why I support getting Bourne this year.

One thing less to do next year.

This team can win with Santana and his big contract on it next year provided we get quality outfielders.

Now obviously the NL east has become the strongest devision in all of baseball.

I see Washington as the best in the NL and the Braves not far behind. Philis not a bad team just getting old.

The mets are fourth in this devision as Florida is a little more than college level.

That being said you never know with injuries and deals what will happen. 

There will be trades made that you can't foresee, prospects that pan out, prospects that collapse.-thomasam


That's a safe bet especially over a five year period.  I conceded that D'arnaud and Wheeler would make the jump to the next level and that Syndergaard, Flores, Nimmo and Gavin Cecchini might fill some of the holes.  I also cited that other prospects would be traded for players.  Those are all positve concessions and yet I believe that the lack of a expanded payroll budget along with the lack of viable players on todays team makes 2018 more reasonable than any year sooner.  I also believe that the FO can clearly see that they not close to competing with the Nationals and Braves and will not throw away money on big salaries until they see the landscape changing.  Signing David Wright for 138 M was a backloaded lollipop for the fans.

I would like to buy a different senario, but no one has written one based on the realities of our team; the players, the 50 M drop in payroll, the failure to pursue free agents, the falling attendance, and the 162 M due in two years. 

Yogi I must say you have become a supreme pessimist.-jokati
One of the definitions of insanity is doing the same over and over again and expecting a different outcome

2009 was destroyed by the injuries, 2010 more of the same, 2011 no Santana and we lost Ike Davis early, 2012 Reyes, Beltran, Rodriguez gone and the committed salary as well.  I was a cheer leader in each of these years.  I am less pessimist than I am realist. 

We will not get, and nor should we, Michael Bourn because we don't have the money and if we did sign him and left the rest of the needs unfilled It would be an empty gesture. I am a Mets fan and I am not happy with their condition I also understand that this condition is locked in until the 162 M clawback is satisfied.  If being a pessimist/realist has a color it is blue and like Kermit, it's not easy being blue.      

Is there ANY chance that Mets get new owners??

Yogi the GM is not doing the same thing over and over again.

He has taken his time (Even with us calling him all kind of names) and weeded out the large contracts, getting whatever he could for them.

He now has left Santana. Santana is not the only big contract we have but he is a large contract that is not performing anywhere near his salary.

Just about every team and certainly every large market team carries a large contract or two and with Santanas big contract coming off the books at the end of this year the GM probably feels that the Mets can carry another large contract. This makes sense especially when you consider that the team is made up of very young players with smaller contracts.

Checked the numbers and the mets have 4 contracts over 1 mil per year (Santana, Wright, Buck and Francisco)

Santanas/Buck come off at the end of this year, not sure about Francisco.

This does not look like a mets team of past years. 

I really don't see a team competing in this division for at least three years...

The one point that has been forgotten is this...

In 2010, 6 players made up $85 million out of the total $134 million payroll...
In 2011, 6 players made up $95 million out of the total $132 million payroll...

When Santana comes off of the books next season, the Mets will have about $40 million dedicated...half of that belongs to Wright....
 If the Mets sign 3 top line FA players to try to speed up their chances for a playoff spot, at a total of about $40 million they will once again be in a situation where 4 of their players will be making 75% of the total team payroll...

I do not think that Wilpon will allow that imbalance to happen again.....

I can see one solid FA signing for next season, followed by a couple of trades as the management gets a clearer picture of who they want to move forward with...

Look like 2016-17 at the earliest before this team will compete...

Although I can't disagree with you Yogi, I'm shocked to read your change of attitude toward our Mets.
For years, you stuck up for the Mets to anyone on here, and no matter the subject. You always had faith in the Mets. If someone posted something in a negative manner, you, were the first to disagree and keep posative. You've always maintained the most posative attitude for the Mets more than anyone.
What gives? Why the sudden change of heart? What was the final straw that broke the camels back? I don't get it!
I'm not being scarcastc here, but it kinda feels like watching Batman get sick of fighting crime and joining the Joker.
The Mets have been tumbling down a mountain of failure for years now. And all through those years you argued with several guys that complained about it. Never giving in either. Suddenly, Yogi waiving the white flag til 2018, and ATW has the keep your head up comment. It's been a while I guess, WOW.

Just when you start rubbing off on guys Yogi, your changing teams.
As much as I want to be like you've been in the past and claim "I believe this team can win". "We've got plenty of young talent". 


                                                                        I     CAN'T  !!!!!!!!!!


I call it the way I see it. Always have, always will....

I don't think they're competing this season, but I see no way to see beyond this season.  I'm really hesitant to go crazy about Wheeler but what if he comes up here and is a top pitcher right away?  That makes a huge difference if the rotation is Wheeler, Harvey, Niese, Gee and someone else.  The same could happen with d'Arnaud.  Then suddenly the infield looks good.

I do agree someone with MrBMG that the days of big-name free agents might be gone for a while.  There might not be any more players like Santana, Beltran, Delgado and the like...but there's no reason there might not be some mid-range free agents here within the next year or so.  There's no reason to think that a mid-range free agent couldn't help this team a lot.

That's why I agree with ATW about Bourn being the perfect pickup right now.  If Wright, Davis and Murphy stay healthy and d'Arnaud ends up being the hitter he's hoped to be, that's suddenly a very solid 3-6.  

The thing is that plenty of teams that were supposed to be long-term powers didn't end up that way.  Right now it looks like Atanta and Washington are set up really well for the next 5-10 years, but if it doesn't work out it wouldn't be the first time.

There's just too many unknowns to really say the division will have no significant unexpected developments for 2013-2017. 

Common guys, remember when the Phillies got Halliday we were all saying how they would dominate the division for years? Didn't happen, and they haven't won any WS with him yet.. How about the Red Sox? After all those big name acquisitions look at what a disaster that turned out to be over the past 2 years with those "stars"  How about the Marlins after the moves they made last offseason, how'd that turn out for them?

Sure the Braves and the Nats are setup well right now or seem to be, but anything can happen over the next 2-3 years if they become a hurt or a disfunctional team for whatever developing reason.

I'm totally disagreeing with the thought that the Mets won't compete until 2018. My guess is that the Braves will be good(don't know how good but better than .500) for the next 3 years max before they run into some kind of big problem of some kind with their key players. Same thing with the Nats, they'll most likely be good for another 2 or 3 years but I wouldn't bet beyond that.

Mets... will be playoff contenders before 2016, I truly believe that. I could be wrong but I have just as much of a chance at being right as the doom and gloom until 2018 people do of being wrong considering we're mostly gambling on top prospects to pan out.

This year, obviously the Mets will not be getting too far, that's as far as I'll go predicting negativity.

Yogi, surprised you're being this negative looking into the future, its usually something you don't do often, just try to quit the negativity and ignorance of looking into a fake crystal ball and forcasting doom over the next half decade.

And back on these dominant teams (on paper going into the season at least) everyone likes to knee-jerk forecast will be big winners...  

We know about some of the teams last year many people were in awe about going into the season because of the moves they made.. and how many thought they would be atop their divisions or winning titles..  Miami, Philadelphia, Arizona, LA Angels, even Boston still... All of them struck out.

Let's take a look this year at some of the teams projected to dominate or win divisions, wild cards..  Atlanta, Toronto, Washington, Cincinatti, LA Dodgers, LA Angels... Now, I'm not gonna lie to you, I'm probably just as much of a fool as last year and I'll predict each of these teams to win their divisions this year because of the moves they made or whatever, but I know its not gonna turn out all that well for all of them.  Maybe only about half of them will win their divisions or wild cards or amount of games as expected.

So if we have a tough time each year predicting the October results from the start of each season, then we definitely can't predict what's gonna happen 2-3 years from now or how good teams that look good on paper now will be then.

There's absolutely no better example than experts' predictions every season.  Yes, we know baseball a whole lot better than your average fan on this board, but for experts it's their job.  I didn't read a ton of predictions last year, but who had Oakland and Baltimore in the playoffs?

Heck just check out Baseball Prospectus, a very good source:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a
rticle.php?articleid=16245

That's one example, but we all know what the predictions were going in and every year has the same 50/50 kind of results from all experts.  

Prospects surprise all the time and move quickly through a system, careers take an unexpected downturn all the time.  Let's take it year by year.

Opps.

Jade it has been quite a turn for me.  jokati thought that line about insanity and expecting a different outcome was about Sandy Alderson, when it was actually about me these past four years.  Knowing we were handicapped by injury or competitive balance and yet finding the slightest of stats that if everything fell in a perfect world the Mets would contend for a wild card.  By September I would lower the bar to a .500 season.  My cheerleading record is 0-4.  What was the straw?  I'll give you three, none more important the the next but collectively undeniablly crippling in being able to an atmosphere of optimism.

1. The 28-49 finish to last season.  The seven games over .500 prior to the crash was an unsustainable run of clutch hitting with numerous 2 out RBIs.  This was fueled by David Wright hitting .350 and, with two exceptions, the remainer of the lineup getting hits at the most opportune time. 
2. The failure of Alderson to address the obvious OF needs, while he worked to trade R.A. Dickey.  We got a top C prospect, won the battle and
for 2013 lost the war.
3. I believe that there is a correlation between the Mets reluctance/inability to spend and the 162 M clawback due in 2015.  For that reason the FO should have been forthcoming and announced that "we are rebuilding".  We are Mets fans and could have handled it.  Another cache would have been
the attraction of new fans who wanted to be part of the rebirth.  I was a Mets fan from game 1 of this franchise and 51 years  later I'm still here.  game 1 though game 970 was 6 years of 100 losses and 1969 was the rich fullfillment of those 6 years.  The Navy term plank holder refers to a member of the first crew on a ships maiden voyage.  I am a Mets plank holder.  The holdovers from our last winning season are few; Wright, Santana, Daniel Murphy who was an Aug. call up and was part of a 7 player LF platoon in 2008, Niese who pitched 14 innings and Bobby Parnell who logged 5 innings.  We have a pitcher we would be better off without, two pitchers who barely got dirt on their spikes, that is turnover and that is rebuilding.  138 M to sign David Wright as a showpiece on a team that is so far removed from being a serious contender was a dishonest move by the FO.  Putting that salary in the same clawback escrow account as the Beltran, Reyes, Perez, and Rodriguez money would have resolved the 162 M obstacle and started the comeback clock sooner.
    







             

The holdovers from our last winning season are few; Wright, Santana, Daniel Murphy who was an Aug. call up and was part of a 7 player LF platoon in 2008, Niese who pitched 14 innings and Bobby Parnell who logged 5 innings.

Yogi, most teams these days have that kind of turnover within 7 seasons depending on the age of the players in the 7-years ago season.  Really Reyes should still be here if not for the financial situation but Delgado, Martinez, LoDuca, Floyd, Glavine, Maine, Trachsel and so on were all in their mid-to-late 40s (Glavine WAS 40).  That's the mark of a team going for it over a short time period, which that team was.  So you wouldn't expect them all to be here unless you want a team full of 40-50 year olds.

All the talk about the clawback, I get that but you've got to realize that while it's a ton of money the Wilpons are worth much, much more than that.  If putting more money on the field leads to higher profits, they'll do that (within reason).  Right now though I get the idea of not loading up on free agents just to make this team respectable.  The key is to wait and make the right moves, not make moves for the sake of making them. 

The 28-49 finish to last season.  The seven games over .500 prior to the crash was an unsustainable run of clutch hitting with numerous 2 out RBIs.  This was fueled by David Wright hitting .350 and, with two exceptions, the remainer of the lineup getting hits at the most opportune time. 

Yes, and the bad ending was due in part to another rash of injuries with very little to pick up the slack.  Really it was about the rotation, with Gee, Santana and Pelfrey all out by the break.  So you have Hefner, Schwinden, Batista and McHugh making tons of starts and generally doing pretty badly overall.  It's not like they would've been 49-28 with the regulars healthy, but they'd probably be a lot closer to .500.

It would've been nice to get an OF for Dickey, but a good catcher is much, much harder to find.  d'Arnaud is a gamble but one that could pay off big-time.  Just look at the Cardinals and Giants to see how a good catcher can make a difference.  Syndergaard has big potential also so he's worth it.  OFs are easier to find, especially some decent ones that hit .270-20-85 which is all this team might need if the picthing and infield come through.

I completely get the pessimism, but I'm just not feeling it long-term.  This year?  Sure, but there's a lot of youth.  Very few owners/GMs get away with a rebuild and really the Wilpons/Alderson aren't either but at this point I think the fanbase is frustrated enough where there's some patience for a change.
 

For all the doom and Gloom I am reading, is the product of the last several years of injury and woe.  I think our attitudes as a fanbase will be more optimistic after this year.  There are many good things on the horizon then most are seeing.  What is typically the easiest positions to fill?  Corner OFs, which with the signing of Bourn we can make our biggest glaring fault.  By next year we could fix that easy enough, but replacing Johan may not be that easy.

Johan Santana was performing very admirably last year until we overextended his pitches for a piece of history.  By my accounts he was fully back to prominence and I expect a great year from him.  Not only did he make it fairly far without any drop off until the No Hitter, he had an extensive rehabilatative process which can give me confidence he has the longevity to get through the season.  The club has learned their lesson and will keep him under 110 for the season in any one game regardless.  He will start out with less but will get back to 100-110 pitches per game at a normal rate.

Now we have a decent rotation and if we get Oswalt to either anchor the BP or pitch in the fifth spot we don't have to necessarily worry about Gee (a fifth starter at best).  Plus we have Wheeler in the wings.  Next year will be harder to replace Johan than many will expect, but that being said we will save money and may be alright at that point.  Rotation will be fine this year and years to come.

The batting order with Bourn gives us a bonafide leadoff hitter and the starting of D'Arnaud will give us a solid 3-5 with a decent number two and 6-8 not being so bad and can compete with any ballclub, maybe not better but can compete and each game can be won with what we have with the pitching staff we have.

The tough part will be the BP and next year investments can be made predicated on how we do this year.  Our closer had floating bone chips and now that that is fixed no reason to believe he can't save games.  Bobby Parnell proved adequate as a setup man not a closer so again I am optimistic, and now we are building some other young arms that may tell us what we have for the future.  I do like Elvin's stuff it is electric and if he can get some of the jitters out this year and gain more control he can be utterly dominating and Josh Edgin is also a good arm with another year he may also be better than expected.  So even if we just get Bourn and allow ourselves to platoon the LF corner with the pick ups we made two sub par OFs can combine to make one great corner OF as they both have strengths from the opposite side of the plate, I like our chances of being competitive this year in each game not necessarily for the WS, but in each game and that is where it needs to start.  I think by as early as next year we can be legitimate contenders to the division with some of the right moves and be very viable by the 2015 season.

The Braves are always going to be good, the question is how long will the Nationals be good and can injuries devastate them as it did us, and then how well will they recover.  I don't think we need to seel ourselves short and push to the 2018 season when we have been doing a good job of cleaning house and preparing for the 2014 season and on.  And yes I hope the 2013 season makes it more evident, but to do so we need to be marked as buyers at mid-season or 2015 may be the year.  I have not sold this season out just yet, but it must start with the first piece of a CF/ leadoff hitter.  And Michael Bourn can make it a lot harder on opposing teams then a Tejada leading off and a Niuenhuis in CF.  how much easier would it be having CPT Kirk coming off the bench or in AAA as an easy call up.  Cowgill and Brown used the right way may be more impressive than we think, but that will have a lot to do with Collins willingness to possible rotate guys.

 We got a top C prospect, won the battle and
for 2013 lost the war. 

Yogi, I think you have this backwards.  We may have lost the 2013 battle, but it put us in a position to win the war a couple years from now.

Everyone talking about the spending days being over.  I don't see why.  yes the Mets have fallen on hard times, but I think Alderson is approaching the problem like such:

When he came in, we had 6 million tied up in Castillo who was dropped immediately, 12 million in Perez who was already gone, 16 million in Bay who wasn't producing and 20 million in Santana who was  broken.  After a year, he was able to wash off 18 from Castillo and Perez, but still had near 40 million tied up in the other two.

With the resources available to him (lets say the 20 million for Castillo and Perez), could he have bought enough talent to fix the OF, RP, IF and rotation (which were all broken)?

If the answer is no, why spend that 20 million to be mediocre?  Instead, I think he pocketed that money to help deal with the Mets financial woes.  Helped save for the future.  Helped build a farm system for future greatness instead of making deals, losing draft picks, and settling for indefinitely long mediocrity.

Well, next year, that 40 comes off the books.  We'll have a base of 40 million as someone said, we'll have a solid farm system and some great young talent on the MLB team.  Thats when the spending will pick up again.  That's when spending 25 million doesn't cost you a high draft pick and leave you only mediocre instead of bad.  Thats when spending had a chance to get your over the hump.

2014 is what I view Alderson has been waiting for.  2014 is when the purse strings have a reason to be open.  Not to just appease the fans, but to give the Mets a chance to win.  Spending for 2011 or 2012 would have been pointless.  Buying high priced OF or pitcher for 2013 which have just put the Mets deeper in their hole.  But for 2014 and 2015, it finally makes sense again.

To go back to Yogi's quote.  We may have lost the battle for 2013.  But if how I see this panning out occurs, that would be winning the war. 

Common guys, remember when the Phillies got Halliday we were all saying how they would dominate the division for years? Didn't happen, and they haven't won any WS with him yet..ATW

ATW...you can have Halladay, Lee, and Hamels and I will take one of these two lists...

Minor, Beachy, Venters, Kimbrel, Freeman, Heyward, Simmons, Medlen, Walden, Teheran, Justin Upton

Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Storen, Clippard, Detweiler, Ramos, Desmond, Espinosa, Zimmerman, Harper, Span...

These two rosters are loaded with 29 and under players and built for distance...

I do agree someone with MrBMG that the days of big-name free agents might be gone for a while.  There might not be any more players like Santana, Beltran, Delgado and the like...but there's no reason there might not be some mid-range free agents here within the next year or so.  There's no reason to think that a mid-range free agent couldn't help this team a lot.

That's why I agree with ATW about Bourn being the perfect pickup right now....thomasam

You hit the nail on the head with the mid range FA comment thomas but, I don't see Bourn as a mid level guy at $15 million a year.
Why would you want to pay out $45 million for the next three years when the team probably will not make the playoffs during that time...they have already laid out all of that money for Wright and he will be at least 34 by the time they are ready for a serious run at a ring...I would rather bring in guys that are truly mid level and build the team the right way...

Look at this list of players that they brought in during the mid 80's:
 
 Wagner, Floyd, Beltran, Pedro Martinez, Glavine, Cameron, LoDuca, Valentin, Delgado, Nady, Endy Chavez, Julio Franco, Offerman, Mientkiewicz, Shawn Green, Ramon Castro, Steve Trachsel, Moises Alou, and Marlon Anderson added to the young players like Wright, Reyes, Heilman, Gomez, Maine, Joe Smith, Feliciano, Victor Diaz, Mike Jacobs, Bell, Ring, and others...all of these additions were not stars but, they all played a part in the team's success for the winning years from 2005-2008 when the Mets, coming off of 3 very bad years, won 357 games, lost 291 games..

That was a winning formula and it can be again....