The Daily Top-25 with Analysis

From now through the end of the season I´m going to attempt to  predict each weeks upcoming Top-25 with the help of input provided by other posters on this board, let´s see if together we can get it right.  While alot of poster´s oppinions expressed here are biased towards their own favorite teams, there´s clearly alot of very insightful NCAAB knowledge on this site, I will attempt to filter through posters comments and impartially put them to good  use to update this on a daily basis with the previous days results.  This will be followed by a daily analysis of how the most recent results affected the previous daily rankings.

07 Feb 2013

01. Michigan
02. Duke 
03. Gonzaga
04. Arizona
05. Miami
06. Indiana
07. Florida
08. Syracuse
09. Ohio State
10. Louisville
11. Kansas
12. Michigan State
13. Kansas  State
14. Butler
15. New Mexico
16. Georgetown
17.  Minnesota
18. Missouri
19. Oklahoma State
20. Pitsburgh
21. Marquette
22. Creighton
23. Cincinnati
24. Notre Dame
25. Colorado State  

  
Most significant  results/effects since 4 Feb poll

5-6 Feb
(1) Florida loss at Arkansas, obviously  the big news of the day. One of the biggest upsets so far this year, Gators take a big tumble to number 8.
(2)  For Ohio State the overtime loss at Michigan  is almost like a win over a descent non-ranked team and should have no effect in  ranking unless combined with other results. For Michigan its a shaky win, but a  win none the less - no effect on ranking.
(3) Miami  and Kansas State victories over unranked opponents happened just as  expected, no news here - no effect on ranking, although Miami  (like the other #3 to #8 teams) moves up one spot due to Florida´s drop in  ranking
(4) Notre Dame loss to Syracuse,  very similiar to last weeks Marquette losing to Louisville - away loss to a much  higher ranked team probably has no effect on ranking for either  team, especially with poor results so far from teams that just missed being  ranked. (Marquette actually managed to move up one spot last  week).

7  Feb
(1) Kansas loss at TCU. THE biggest upset so far this  year! Difficult to predict how far the Jayhawks tumble - for  now Kansas falls to a very shaky #11.
(2) Arizona,  Louisville, Butler, New Mexico and Oklahoma State victories - all  victories at home over unranked opponents that happened just as expected, no  news here - no direct effect on ranking, although Arizona and  Louisville (like the other #6 to #11 teams) all move up a knotch due to the  Kansas drop in ranking.
(3) Michigan State victory  over Minnessota - nice (but expected) win at home, probably no  direct effect for the Spartans.  For Minnesota its a tough  (competitive) away loss to a slightly higher ranked opponent with only minimum  effect on the rankings for them.  Because of the Creighton and Cincinnati  losses the Golden Gophers stay in the spot they  occupied yesterday (while Oregon and Georgetown move up to occupy those two  spots).
(4) Creighton (vs Indiana State)  and Cincinnati (vs Providence) losses. Both away losses to unranked  teams, the Bluejays and the Bearcats drop significantly in the ranking  to #23 and #24 respectively (had these losses been at home they would  have dropped off completely).
(5) Marquette victory over South  Florida - This away drubbing of the lowly (last in the Big East) Bulls  is what ¨is expected¨ of a Top-25 team over this caliber of opponent, no  effect on rankings although (like the other #16 to #24 teams) they move  up two spots due to Creighton & Cincinnati´s drop in ranking.


8 Feb 
(1)  Indiana loss to Illinois.  Obviously the big story of the day, another loss by a (the) top team to an unranked opponet.  This one is an ¨away¨ loss with a close result to a not-so-bad historical rival (top-50), so its effect is less than Floridas´ loss to Arkansas or especially Kansas´ loss to TCU - Indiana tumbles to #6.
(2)  Duke victory (over NC State) and Gonzaga victory (over Pepperdine).  Home wins over unranked opponents.  Just another ¨W¨ for the Blue Devils and the Bulldogs, no news here and no direct effect on the ranking, although (like all the #2 to #6 teams) they both move up a spot due to Indiana´s drop in the ranking.
(3)  Oregon loss to Colorado.  The third consecutive loss for the Ducks, this one at home loss to an unranked team, Oregon drops out of the ranking.
(4)  Several teams are on the bubble to enter the poll, but for now Colorado State gets the knod and moves into the #25 spot - others competing for the spot are Memphis, Wisconsin, Illinois, Mississippi and San Diego State

I think if Indiana wins at OSU they stay in the top 3, but i'm guessing you have OSU beating Indiana since you have them at #9, because no way OSU moves up if they go 0-2 in the same week.

This daily poll is solely based on what HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.  Indiana´s loss at Illinois is not the same as Michigan´s loss at Indiana which only dropped Michigan 3 spots.  Indiana´s loss was to a mediocre Non-ranked opponent, thereby their drop is more significant than the Wolverines fall, although obviously nowhere near as significant as Kansas´ tumble due to their loss to TCU.  As far as the Hoosier´s upcoming game at Ohio State goes, its too close to call - I dont predict upcoming results, just how those results affect the rankings.

I missed Missouri´s loss at Texas AM - see changes to notes (3) & (4) under 8 Feb below:

  08 Feb 2013

01. Michigan
02. Duke 
03. Gonzaga
04. Arizona
05. Miami
06. Indiana
07. Florida
08. Syracuse
09. Ohio State
10. Louisville
11. Kansas
12. Michigan State
13. Kansas  State
14. Butler
15. New Mexico
16. Georgetown
17. Minnesota
18. Oklahoma State
19. Pitsburgh
20. Marquette
21. Creighton
22. Cincinnati
23. Notre Dame
24. Colorado State 
25. Memphis
  
Most significant  results/effects since 4 Feb poll

8 Feb 
(1)  Indiana loss to Illinois.  Obviously the big story of the day, another loss by a (the) top team to an unranked opponet.  This one is an ¨away¨ loss with a close result to a not-so-bad historical rival (top-50), so its effect is less than Floridas´ loss to Arkansas or especially Kansas´ loss to TCU - Indiana tumbles to #6.
(2)  Duke victory (over NC State) and Gonzaga victory (over Pepperdine).  Home wins over unranked opponents.  Just another ¨W¨ for the Blue Devils and the Bulldogs, no news here and no direct effect on the ranking, although (like all the #2 to #6 teams) they both move up a spot due to Indiana´s drop in the ranking.
(3)  Oregon loss (to Colorado) and Missouri loss (to Texas A&M).  The third consecutive loss for the Ducks, this one at home loss to an unranked team.  Missouri´s fourth loss in their last 8 games with all but the Gators being losses to unranked teams.  Oregon and Missouri both drop out of the ranking.
(4)  Several teams are on the bubble to enter the poll, but for now Colorado State and Memphis get the knod and move into the #24 and #25 spots - others competing for spots are Wisconsin, Mississippi, San Diego State, Illinois, Missouri and Oregon

Nice idea, man! I'm glad you agreed with me that the OSU should remain where we were because after already beating Michigan once at home by 3(no OT necessary) everyone was giving them the "revenge game" by like 20pts in Ann Arbor and we put up a great effort to make it an OT win for them by 2pts....and probably the best game played all season. I give cudos to my boys for showing up like that at their home stadium and making them pee their pants (u couldn't tell cuz it's yellow close enuf to Maize, whatever that is, Cornhole;) to get that 2 pt OT win. If anything besides staying at the same spot, we should move ahead of the Cuse due to their losses to unranked Pitt, unranked Temple, and unranked Villanova. Their "marquee" win was to Louisville by 2pts who then lost 3 straight and their ONLY other decent wins are to 2 teams ranked lower than 20th (one by only 2pts AT HOME to # 21 Cincinnati)....not so deserving of #8 when you look a bit closer;) Also, you penalized FL a bit much for a ten pt loss to an Arky team that is currently 13-1 at Home and well known to be a tough team to beat in Arkansas as their record shows. Plus some of Arkansas's losses prove they can b tough for ANY top team with a 9 pt loss to #6, a loss on the road to #3 Michigan by 12, another 12pt loss to top 25 Ole Miss on the road, a 3pt loss on the road at Bama, etc. They also got lucky that FL played their worst game and Arky shot 78% first half and hit more 3s than ever this season. Considering that FL has been plagued by injuries and is not exactly deep, they had to play without their best defensive player/rebounder (a junior Yuegette?) who is out for the season with knee surgery and missed the last 9 games of last season, most likely why they weren't in the final four and had to play another injured player who had been out ALL season with a bad high ankle sprain. That kid, Prather, was clearly out of practice, if you watched the game, and did his team more harm than good. Even playing as poorly as they did, I believe if FL had Yuegette, they still woulda won that game which is miraculous considering how hot Arky was playing! And Arky did play exceptionally well, no offense to the Hogs. Also, FL's other 2 losses were a 1 pt loss AT Arizona, your # 4, and another team u and the AP have at # 13 by only 6 points on the road....not bad losses (by a combined 7 pts) at all if you look closer, so FL essentially has ONE bad loss and then beat every other team they won against by an average of (29?) points!!!! Not just SEC teams, they beat a top 25 Marquette by almost 35 points, UGA who only lost to UCLA by 4pts and #1 IU by only 13(who the Gators crushed by a score of 77-44), beat #16 ole Miss by 15, killed #17 Mizzou by 31, beat a SC team by 40 playing 4 freshmen and a sophomore the last 4th of the game at least (aSC team that only lost to KY at KY by half that margin in their last game). I have some points to make about the Zags, but will have to later....good luck with your considerations & good post! Take care.

Dont have alot of time so I´ll be brief.  Concerning Ohio State, I think we´re pretty much on the same page here - in either case, the Hoosier´s upcoming visit on Sunday will clear any doubts for non-believers.  As far as Florida goes, while you bring up alot of valid points concerning their margins of victory and the fact that the Razorbacks are very tough at home, the fact is that they were (and will continue to be) unranked.  More importantly the rankings are always based on ¨what have you done lately?¨ (loss to unranked Arkansas) and ¨what are you expected to do now?¨ - the Gator´s loss of Will Yeguete is significant and clearly means they will do less.  While ¨in theory¨ Florida should win out the rest of their games, they still have three not-so-easy shoot-outs as visitora at Auburn, Tennessee and Kentucky.  This season has gone from ¨how well do I do? being less of a key than ¨how bad do the other top teams do?  We´re seeing surprise after surprise on a daily basis, only time will tell... 

Much agreed, Humble. That loss of Yuegette for the season just put a knife in FL's back right before the last third of the season and the tourney....exact same thing happened with him last year and he is for sure a key player with much needed tournament experience. He woulda taken them from losing in the elite 8 in OT to at least a final four last year! And having Prather out ALL season and come back playing SO badly is kinda expected since the kid hasn't practiced at all with his team. But if he keeps playing like that, Donovan needs to bench him soon. Still, FL is for sure better than most of the teams out there. If they can gel without 2 of their starters and get a couple freshmen to fill in well enough, they are still Final four material. And why is Duke in everyone's top 5....is it jus cuz they are Duke? If so, why not KY too;-)

I dont see the Gators getting two freshmen to fill the big shoes of Yuegette and Prather - I suspect the AP and Coaches poll will see it the same way. 

In respect to Duke, yeah part of is ¨because they are Duke¨.   To be fair to the Blue Devils they are a 20-2 team with quality wins over three teams that were ranked #2 (Louisville), #3 (Kentucky) & #4 (Ohio State) at the time they beat them (Louisville and Kentucky were ¨away¨ victories). Their only two losses came at the hands of NC State (as visitors) and the blowout loss to a Miami team that has recently risen to elite status (and for now are in fact my darkhorse pick for the NC).  I seriously doubt Duke can win out, but the fact is that Miami´s visit on March 2nd and the Blue Devil´s visit to Chapel Hill on March 9th are their only real remaining tests.  One very nasty loss, but at least for now - Duke is deserving of their ranking. 

Finally, I failed to respond to your (previous post) comment on Syracuse.  The truth is I agree with you, I was surprised to see the Orangemen come in at #9 last week - in fact I had them coming in at #11.  The thing is that this ranking is not meant to reflect my opinion on where the team should be ranked, rather it is meant to predict where each team WILL be ranked.  Since Syracuse started the week at #9 and have since beaten a team they were supposed to beat (Notre Dame) the only change in their ranking is their 1 spot move up due to the bellyflop by the Jayhawks.   

I almost guarentee Michigan St. is ahead of Kansas in both polls Monday (assuming they win @Purdue Sat)... the 2 would be very close, but with Mich St having beat KU early in the season, you'll get a lot of voters putting Mich St above KU for that reason. (Possibly myself included, depending on how Mich St @Purdue and Kansas @Oklahoma play out).

Solid analysis Humble 7.  This weekend will be another version of huge moves in all directions...  Many ranked teams playing tough opponents.

The Jayhawks loss at the hands of TCU was pretty devastating to their cause - I brought them pretty far down but you may be right, i could easily see both the AP and Coache´s Poll putting them down one more spot (behind the Spartans).  I dont believe Michigan State´s early season victory over Kansas will play a big part in Monday´s Polls but this weekends games most certainly will - anything less than a solid win by either team could make the difference...

Thanks Unolobo, glad you found it useful.  Without a doubt, this is another big weekend with several very important games. I have little doubt we´ll see some further important moves in the rankings before Mondays voting...  

10 Feb 2013

01. Duke 
02. Gonzaga
03. Arizona
04. Miami
05. Indiana
06. Michigan
07. Florida
08. Syracuse
09. Ohio State
10. Michigan State
11. Kansas State
12. Butler
13. Louisville
14. Georgetown
15. Kansas
16. Pitsburgh
17. Oklahoma State
18. Notre Dame
19. New Mexico
20. Minnesota
21. Marquette
22. Oregon
23. Missouri
24. Wisconsin
25. Memphis

On the bubble: Colorado State, San Diego State, Colorado, UNLV, Illinois, Oklahoma, VCU, Louisiana Tech, Kentucky

10 Feb - Significant  results/effects
Too much to coment on at this hour... Give me your (untainted) oppinions and I´ll work some more on today´s ranking/effects later today.

I would say that is about as close as a guy could assume based on the happenings of the past week. With Indiana, Michigan, and Florida, it makes mixes things up a bit. In my opinion I could see Florida dropping to 9th and Syracuse moving up to 8th. Considering that Florida had the worst loss out of the top 10 and with the loss of Yeguete, it just seems fitting that they flip. The only reason I would question that, is the fact that Syracuse played a short week and only had one game, but they did handle Notre Dame pretty well even though it was at home. Other than that your pretty much spot on and in any changes you'd be splitting hairs.

Considering that Florida had the worst loss out of the top 10

Explain you logic please.  Looking at a final score doesnt' cut it.

Arkansas is tough at home.  Only loss was Syracuse in a game that went down to the wire on a night when Triche went off for 35 and kept Syracuse in the game.

Add to that Arkansas is a team that poorly shoots and hits only 4 threes per game, but against Florida they came out forcing shots from 25 ft with a defender in their face and shot 85% in the first half (yes 85%).  Even with that once in a century performance Florida was within 11 and could have won down the stretch if they didn't give up...

People need to stop looking at the final score and actually break the game down.  Will Y. was a big loss... that is true.  But Florida has a strong resume.  

If Florida drops that far, the Michigan should as well.  Florida raped Wisky in a way no other B1G team has... right?

:) 

Listen guys, I am ¨very close¨ to someone who has been a voter in THE Poll for quite some time.  While I dont claim to have any special insight or inside info, I can say that long conversations with this individual allow me to fully corroborate what most well-informed long-time followers of NCAAB already know about the polls - it´s not easy for a lower-ranked team to leapfrog a team ranked above them when both teams win in expected fashion.  This is the reason that a team like Miami (whom many including myself agree is the best team right now) has no possibility of rising to number 1 in tommorow´s poll. They may move past Gonzaga based on each team´s result last night, but they can not leapfrog Arizona (who beat them handily a while back) or Duke (who they trounced recently) unless either the Blue Devils or the Wildcats drop the ball tonight. As far as Florida goes, I agree that the away loss at Arkansas is not all that bad.  If we only took into account that unlike the Gator´s, the Orangemen went into the Razorback´s den and beat them, then we could justify putting Syracuse over Florida - but the ranking process is nowhere near that simple, and when we take everything into account, at least for now the Gators still come out on top.

I don't see how Duke could possibly be 1 with the worst beat down ever. Miami beat them by 30ish and the ACC has no other ranked teams. So now that Louisville has lost 4 games to unranked opponents and Duke only beat them by 5pts on neutral court, my Bucks have lost more than anyone expected and Duke only beat us by 5 in Durham, and those are their marquee wins, they aren't lookin so good anymore. They clearly also lost to unranked NC ST.... And most of their unranked ACC opponents, basically the entire conference, Duke has only beat by under 10 (very close "victories"). So how did they get to the top spot?

Louisville only has one loss against an unranked opponent.

Syracuse, Georgetown, Duke, and Notre Dame. Only Villanova is unranked.

Louisville should have beaten ND by 20 points...

the fact that Russ Smith took the final shot 5 times in one night tells the story,
doncha think?

Gawdawful.