The Daily Fade
NHL Tampa at Boston Cancelled so ...
Florida/Washington over 5.5 +105
Florida travels to Washington in a game of underachievers. Season is too short to change coaches; so Oates is safe in Washington and Florida can't fill the roster to cover for their injury issues. Expecting both teams to look across to the other bench and see this as chance to turn around their season. This is the first of b2b head2head games so I expect some energy tonight.
Denver / Cavs OVER 215.5
The Denver Nuggets put their season-long eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) on the line when they travel to Cleveland to face the resurgent Cavaliers on Saturday. It's the start of a four-game Eastern Conference road trip for the Nuggets, who have won 14 of 16 (10-6 ATS) to move into the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference. They also just put their balls all over the Bulls chins putting up 127. Denver is 10-7 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records. Nuggets are just 10-15 SU on the road, but have won the past 5 of 6 meetings vs the Cavs, including a 98-91 win Jan. 11 in Denver, and are trying to sweep the season series from the Cavs for the fifth time in the last seven seasons. Nuggets had a day off yesterday while the Cavs played the Magic last night. Nuggs also 8-0 ATS in games with totals higher than 210 this season, and they're very good against poor defensive teams. Good refs for Denver, too. Denver displays impressive depth with six players averaging double-digit scoring and another on the cusp at 9.7 points per game. Small forward Danilo Gallinari (17.1 points, 5.3 rebounds) leads the way, but point guard Ty Lawson (15.2 points, 7 assists) and Andre Iguodala (13.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists) are capable of big nights. Gallinari has scored 20 or more points in eight of the past 16 games, averaging 19.8 points over that stretch. Only negative I see is that the Nuggz could be in a letdown spot here after a domination of the Bulls on Thursday night, and a look ahead spot to Boston on Sunday.
Cleveland has been playing pretty good ball as olf late matching a season-high three-game win streak (3-0 ATS) and claiming six of its last eight (6-2 ATS). Cavs have covered six of their last seven home games, but are 6-9 ATS as a home underdog, and only 8-13 ATS overall at home this year. Cavs are 7-7 ATS if they played night before, 1-3 ATS at home.
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Cleveland: 2-15 ATS in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days
CLEVELAND is 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
DENVER is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
DENVER is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons.
Denver: 8-0 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210
DENVER is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
Last six Denver games went over the total. The Nuggets do not excel at the defensive end — even during their eight-game win streak they have allowed more than 100 points four times. The Nuggets have gone OVER the total in 13 of their last 16 games.
Cleveland has been putting up a lot of points recently averaging 108.3 ppg in their last 7 home contests. The Cavs have gone OVER in their last five games. Cavs have scored 115 points or more in each of its last 3.
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Denver's last 21 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 14 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
76ers / Bobcats UNDER 186.5
Philly playing good ball as of late on a 3-1 SU/ATS run and the 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games (4-1 last 5 as a home fav). Into town come the Bobcats who are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games, and are going nowhere. Charlotte is ranked 23rd in the NBA in points scored, 30th in points allowed and 24th in rebounds. The Cats have only had one cover in their last 7 games following a loss. It's the second of a back to back spot and the Bobcats are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games playing on no days rest. Charlotte is 5-7 vs spread if it played night before, 3-4 ATS on road in same situation. And the 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bobcats are just 5-19 on the road this year and losing by 11.8 ppg. They shoot just 42% while giving up 47.5%, including 39.3% from behind the 3-point line. This team has lost six games in a row, only covering twice when they were getting 13+ points. Bobcats are 5-13 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses
The Bobcats have stayed UNDER the total in five of their last six games. The Sixers have stayed UNDER in their last four home games. Philadelphia has been playing great defense lately, holding their last four opponents to 40% or less shooting. At home the Sixers are 15-12 and holding opponents a full percentage point under their normal shooting rate.
Mavs / Warriors OVER 210.5 -- POD
The Warriors have covered only two of their last seven road games and six of their last seven in Dallas. That won’t help when GS will be playing their 4<sup>th</sup> road game in 5 nights, on a B2B spot, and have lost their last 3 games by 31-21-6 points (2-7 last nine AU).
The Mavericks have covered six of their last seven home games, and are on a 12-2 ATS run. The Mavs are 7-2 ATS last 9 as a home favorite. Nice double revenge situation for the Mavs here after losing two tightly contested contests with the Warriors earlier. In November Dallas dropped a home overtime decision and just 10 days ago the Mavericks lost at Oakland 100-97. Dallas comes into this game fresh with two days off and having only played three games in the past week.
PISTONS / BUCKS OVER 205.5 -- small
Jazz / Kings UNDER 195
Sacramento awful all season (17-33, 19-29-2 ATS) and currently ridding a four-game skid (1-3 ATS), 8-of-9 slide (2-7 ATS) it's hard making a case for Kings when they host Utah Jazz on Saturday. The Kings have failed to cover their last seven home games, and have lost 8 of their last 9 games. The Kings have covered their last 4 games vs the Jazz though and have had 4 days off and the last game they had on 2/4 was in Utah there they lost 98-91 in OT so definite revenge factor here. Still have to factor in that the Kings are 3-14 ATS their last 17 games (one was half point cover playing Jazz in OT on 2/4), are 9-18 ATS revenging a loss vs an opponent this season.
Jazz have been terrible on the road with just nine wins in twenty six tries along with a cash draining 9-16-1 mark at the betting window. Jazz obviously the better team should take care of business on the road but cashing a ticket could prove difficult. Jazz lost last night to the Bulls and are 3-6 ATS without rest including 2-5 ATS on the road. Jazz are also on a 1-8 ATS slide running the hardwood with Kings, 0-4 ATS last four attempting back-2-back wins over Sacramento. The Jazz have failed to cover their last five games against teams with a losing record, hense why they are getting points. The underdog has covered the last five meetings between the Jazz and Kings. UTAH is 7-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons