Original LOCK Thread - 2/9/2013 - Post Your LOCK

USC

MY BOOK HAS THE O/U  CLOSED IN YOUR LOCK GAME

ILL CHECK IT LATER TO SEE WHAT LINE THEY OPEN WITH ..

Oklahoma looks really good tempted to take them 2nd half Money Line 

played kansas under 74 2nd half

Got hooked in Iowa. Shoulda covered missed a bunch of easy layups. They should cover game now.

lockers nothing in the pac12 for me worth a lock. I will tail on Holmey under play.

Neci: 

i like where your head is on ND. Pitino has never beat ND in South Bend. he cannot speed them up with his press and look for ND to methodically run their offense and get much better shots tonight then they did on monday vs Cuse. both Ville and cuse run a 2-3 zone but ND will be able to pass over Villes guards. from there Knight needs to be able to knock down the elbow jumper and find the open man. Knight struggled to make shots vs Cuse but i would be surprised if he misses those open looks tonight. the game will come down to whether or not ND can make enough 3 pointers to loosen up the Ville defense so that Cooley can get his touches. if Cooley touches the ball ND can get open looks from the outside and hopefully make 8 long balls tonight ... Brey said that's how many they need to make to win this game. sounds easier than it will be. this is not a great 3 point shooting team and they are incredible streaky. Beidsheid and Connaughton are especially prone to an 0 fer night from behind the arc but i have a feeling they stroke it tonight.

why will ND cover?
1. Brey owns Pitino. ask Pitino. 
2. Brey has had since Monday to prep. they broke down film on Tuesday and identified mistakes they made against the Cuse 2-3 zone. tonight they will fix those errors.
3. Auguste has zero defensive rebounds in his last 33 minutes of court time. wow. look for him to be more present in that capacity tonight.
4. Beidsheid loves the bigtime atmosphere. he played well against KY in a similar spot.
5. ND needs to build its NCAA resume. they have few good wins and need this one much more than Ville.
6. great spot for ND. they are coming off a poor outing at Cuse (shot 34% and turned it over way too much) and are sitting pretty as a home dog on primetime (kinda like the 2012 game vs Cuse at home when they were a 9 point dog).

PS 3 of the last 4 and 5 of the last 7 have gone into OT. 
PSS ND is not a good defensive team. i am hoping Brey shows a wrinkle or two tonight to mask his shoddy defensive club
PSSS will have more thoughts if time permits ... blah blah

LOCK ND +5.5 

good write up Vince... ive watched both teams many times and just can understand that line. Maybe 3 3.5 tops.. but 5.5 6 is too much like i said. Good luck anyone that decides to tail.

Florida minus 11.5  2nd half...they roll

VINCE/NECI 

TAILING THIS ND + 5.5    I NEED ONE

Good luck Dbronco... i hope it comes thru for us. A good friend just called me and he's a big Louiville fan but the worse gambler and biggest jinx i know... lol he is locking Louisville... thank god cuz he couldnt pick a winner with tomorrow's newspaper.

The Daily Fade


NHL Tampa at Boston Cancelled so ...

Florida/Washington over 5.5 +105

Florida travels to Washington in a game of underachievers. Season is too short to change coaches; so Oates is safe in Washington and Florida can't fill the roster to cover for their injury issues. Expecting both teams to look across to the other bench and see this as chance to turn around their season. This is the first of b2b head2head games so I expect some energy tonight. 

Michigan State -4-- LOCK

Pacific -4

 

Is everyone on ASU at 7?>

wow i think i am about 0-8 today...this is impressive

Sorry for any who tailed Nevada first half. Nevada struggled at times vs the Air Force matchup zone. And the open looks they got they could not hit. For what it's worth, and I haven't seen the number but should be around 70, im playing the over. Nevada will get some of these 3's to go down, and Nevada probably gives up 40 ppg in the 2nd half.

Mr_moparian... love the pick, already clicked it... thanks for your input... Good Luck to all

Just came up short on the Kansas under. The fouling shooting contest took me over. Bailed out with the 2nd half under 74. Thinking about playing under alabama 8:00 pm tip off . Want to check the OFFICIAL total . As of now lock 1-2 ; other posted cbb total 3-3. Not a great start

NBA TONIGHT

Denver / Cavs OVER 215.5

The Denver Nuggets put their season-long eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) on the line when they travel to Cleveland to face the resurgent Cavaliers on Saturday. It's the start of a four-game Eastern Conference road trip for the Nuggets, who have won 14 of 16 (10-6 ATS) to move into the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference.  They also just put their balls all over the Bulls chins putting up 127. Denver is 10-7 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records. Nuggets are just 10-15 SU on the road, but have won the past 5 of 6 meetings vs the Cavs, including a 98-91 win Jan. 11 in Denver, and are trying to sweep the season series from the Cavs for the fifth time in the last seven seasons. Nuggets had a day off yesterday while the Cavs played the Magic last night. Nuggs also 8-0 ATS in games with totals higher than 210 this season, and they're very good against poor defensive teams. Good refs for Denver, too. Denver displays impressive depth with six players averaging double-digit scoring and another on the cusp at 9.7 points per game. Small forward Danilo Gallinari (17.1 points, 5.3 rebounds) leads the way, but point guard Ty Lawson (15.2 points, 7 assists) and Andre Iguodala (13.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists) are capable of big nights. Gallinari has scored 20 or more points in eight of the past 16 games, averaging 19.8 points over that stretch. Only negative I see is that the Nuggz could be in a letdown spot here after a domination of the Bulls on Thursday night, and a look ahead spot to Boston on Sunday. 

Cleveland has been playing pretty good ball as olf late matching a season-high three-game win streak (3-0 ATS) and claiming six of its last eight (6-2 ATS). Cavs have covered six of their last seven home games, but are 6-9 ATS as a home underdog, and only 8-13 ATS overall at home this year. Cavs are 7-7 ATS if they played night before, 1-3 ATS at home. 

TRENDS 

Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home 
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. 
Cleveland: 2-15 ATS in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days 
CLEVELAND is 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons. 
CLEVELAND is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. 

 

Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland. 
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. 
DENVER is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. 
DENVER is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons. 
Denver: 8-0 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 
DENVER is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. 
DENVER is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons. 
DENVER is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. 

TOTAL

Last six Denver games went over the total. The Nuggets do not excel at the defensive end — even during their eight-game win streak they have allowed more than 100 points four times. The Nuggets have gone OVER the total in 13 of their last 16 games.

Cleveland has been putting up a lot of points recently averaging 108.3 ppg in their last 7 home contests. The Cavs have gone OVER in their last five games. Cavs have scored 115 points or more in each of its last 3. 

The total has gone OVER in 14 of Denver's last 21 games on the road 
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver's last 14 games when playing on the road against Cleveland 

76ers -9.5
76ers / Bobcats UNDER 186.5 

Philly playing good ball as of late on a 3-1 SU/ATS run and the 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games (4-1 last 5 as a home fav). Into town come the Bobcats who are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games, and are going nowhere. Charlotte is ranked 23rd in the NBA in points scored, 30th in points allowed and 24th in rebounds. The Cats have only had one cover in their last 7 games following a loss. It's the second of a back to back spot and the Bobcats are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games playing on no days rest. Charlotte is 5-7 vs spread if it played night before, 3-4 ATS on road in same situation. And the 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bobcats are just 5-19 on the road this year and losing by 11.8 ppg. They shoot just 42% while giving up 47.5%, including 39.3% from behind the 3-point line. This team has lost six games in a row, only covering twice when they were getting 13+ points. Bobcats are 5-13 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses 

The Bobcats have stayed UNDER the total in five of their last six games. The Sixers have stayed UNDER in their last four home games. Philadelphia has been playing great defense lately, holding their last four opponents to 40% or less shooting. At home the Sixers are 15-12 and holding opponents a full percentage point under their normal shooting rate.

Mavs / Warriors OVER 210.5 -- POD
Mavs -5.5 

 

The Warriors have covered only two of their last seven road games and six of their last seven in Dallas. That won’t help when GS will be playing their 4^th road game in 5 nights, on a B2B spot, and have lost their last 3 games by 31-21-6 points (2-7 last nine AU).

The Mavericks have covered six of their last seven home games, and are on a 12-2 ATS run. The Mavs are 7-2 ATS last 9 as a home favorite. Nice double revenge situation for the Mavs here after losing two tightly contested contests with the Warriors earlier. In November Dallas dropped a home overtime decision and just 10 days ago the Mavericks lost at Oakland 100-97. Dallas comes into this game fresh with two days off and having only played three games in the past week. 


Trends

• DALLAS is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. 
• DALLAS is 56-39 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. 

• GOLDEN STATE is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons. 
• GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons. 
• GOLDEN STATE is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. 

• The Warriors have gone OVER the total in their last five games following a loss.
• The Mavericks have gone OVER the total in seven of their last nine games. The Mavericks are -6 with a total of 210.5.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home 
• GS is 9-0 Over this season if they played the day before
• Over is 6-1-1 last 8 home games for Mavs.

PISTONS / BUCKS OVER 205.5 -- small

• Pistons lost five of last seven games (4-10 last 14 AU). 
• The Pistons have covered only once in their last six games against teams with a winning record.
• The road team has covered the last four meetings between the Bucks and Pistons.
• Detroit is 5-7 vs spread if it played night before, 4-4 on road. 
• Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games 
• Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road 

•  The Bucks have not covered in their last five games.
•  Milwaukee lost four of last five games (7-8-1 HF). 
• MILWAUKEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. 
• MILWAUKEE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons. 
• MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 
• The Bucks have gone OVER the total in their last four home games. The Bucks are -7 with a total of 202.

• Eight of last ten Milwaukee games went over the total. 
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit 
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 10 games 

Jazz / Kings UNDER 195

Sacramento awful all season (17-33, 19-29-2 ATS) and currently ridding a four-game skid (1-3 ATS), 8-of-9 slide (2-7 ATS) it's hard making a case for Kings when they host Utah Jazz on Saturday. The Kings have failed to cover their last seven home games, and have lost 8 of their last 9 games.  The Kings have covered their last 4 games vs the Jazz though and have had 4 days off and the last game they had on 2/4 was in Utah there they lost 98-91 in OT so definite revenge factor here. Still have to factor in that the Kings are 3-14 ATS their last 17 games (one was half point cover playing Jazz in OT on 2/4), are 9-18 ATS revenging a loss vs an opponent this season.

Jazz have been terrible on the road with just nine wins in twenty six tries along with a cash draining 9-16-1 mark at the betting window. Jazz obviously the better team should take care of business on the road but cashing a ticket could prove difficult. Jazz lost last night to the Bulls and are 3-6 ATS without rest including 2-5 ATS on the road. Jazz are also on a 1-8 ATS slide running the hardwood with Kings, 0-4 ATS last four attempting back-2-back wins over Sacramento. The Jazz have failed to cover their last five games against teams with a losing record, hense why they are getting points. The underdog has covered the last five meetings between the Jazz and Kings. UTAH is 7-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons 

• The Jazz have stayed UNDER the total in four of their last five games.
• The Kings have stayed UNDER in their last five.
• 7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

GL EVERYONE

Have join u all on the nd play . Purchased it at +6. Let's go irish. Played another total. Taking Alabama under 123 after buying the hookn from 122 1/2., Gl. Bandit