METs outfield projections

I'm going to agree with MrB for the following reason;  Kirk Nieuwenhuis started strong in April and faded month by month until he was sent down in July.



April    .325/.386/.475

May     .263/.337/.300 

June    .238/.281/.464

He probably won't be as good as he started, but also not as poor as he finished,  think .275-.280/.340-.350/.450

          

Yogi as you yourself are saying, these stats give little to no value.

The defensive stats for Vladspin are skewed because of his time playing ss. His defense as an of is better.

But in the end you brought them up because they satisfy your case. 

this outfield is not ideal. i love the Mets and will always support them but this has to be the worst i have ever seen them use. Being positve I'll give duda .260 25 hrs 80 rbis nieuwenhuis .265 10 hrs 55 rbis 10 steals baxter .280 5 hrs 25 steals. all gotta be healthy though. I like valdespin. Big upside just needs opportunity to put it all together

So Yogi and MrBMG, neither of you think that the league caught up to Nieuwenhius and that's why his downward spiral began?  I'm not saying he's going to hit .220 but I don't think .260 is too likely either.  I'm looking at around .230-.240.  He really strikes out a ton.  I'd believe his later stats and consider the early stats a fluke until he proves otherwise.

Yogi as you yourself are saying, these stats give little to no value.

But in the end you brought them up because they satisfy your case.-jokati


My case is that I don't like ballplayers making more money than ever possible and who at age 24 won't put in the effort and have an attitude based on a self appraisal of their ability...or their impression of entitlement.  That is Jordany Valdespin, who is not only a limited defensive player but as yet has not proved that he can hit at this level.  

Valdespin is on the list because he is a candidate for the 2013 OF, the same appraisal of him was applied to the other 7 OFs and by using Rdrs his play at SS and 2B was not factored into the defensive metric.  I would suggest that his -5 was based on lack of hustle and as you perhaps saw was the play in LF when he threw up his hands indicating that the ball was out of play while it was 5 feet away, in plain view to all including JV, sitting next to the infield tarp.


I've been eaten alive for my support for players that failed from lack of ability or physical/mental makeup; Castillo, Pelfrey, Bay and for a brief time Perez.  Perez lost my support when the lack of self disipline and selfishness became evident.   But for me to support a player with an attiude and a poor work ethic he needs GG and SS credentials on his resume.  

It's really a situation where the most I'm hoping for is adequate performance from the Mets outfield based upon the obvious lack of true MLB talent that will be residing there.  These are all fringe MLB candidates being asked to man full time spots.  There is no doubt in my mind that the Mets will only go as far as their starting pitching takes them.  If the Mets could get 45 HR's/ 200 RBI's/ and a .260 BA from their OF combined I would be OK with that.  This offense will dependent on the production from the infield.

So Yogi and MrBMG, neither of you think that the league caught up to Nieuwenhius and that's why his downward spiral began?  I'm not saying he's going to hit .220 but I don't think .260 is too likely either.  I'm looking at around .230-.240.  He really strikes out a ton.  I'd believe his later stats and consider the early stats a fluke until he proves otherwise.

I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt when the season starts and this should literally be considered his rookie season.
I also believe that Nieuwenhuis and Duda will be major projects in the camp  for Dave Hudgens, especially against LH pitchers.
Kirk will also get some time with Tom Goodwin, especially if they take a chance with him as the lead off batter starting the season.

Even with the horrible 2nd half, Kirk hit .252 for the season and if he gets some protection from Collins against tough LH pitchers like Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw, he may be able to hit in the .260-.270 range.

Before he got hurt in 2011, he was hitting .298 in AAA and he had a .908 OPS...

THE GUY COULD GO EITHER WAY I GUESS BUT, HE DESERVES A SHOT TO SUCCEED...

April    .325/.386/.475

May     .263/.337/.300 

June    .238/.281/.464

Um, Yogi you left out July:

July:   .105/.190/132

Here's the other detail you're ignoring.  Neiuwenhuis' strikeout rate is downright awful:

April:  7 BB, 25 K
May:  10 BB, 29 K
June:  5 BB, 26 K
July:  3 BB, 18 K

That's sort of brutal.  You have to have a LOT of batted balls drop to keep your OBP up when you have plate discpline like that.  His BABIP was an astonishing .362 for the whole 2012 season.  That means it had to be around .500 early on.  That's unsustainable.

 

THE GUY COULD GO EITHER WAY I GUESS BUT, HE DESERVES A SHOT TO SUCCEED...

Oh he'll definitely get that shot, but it's more a product of a lack of real outfielders than a real reason to believe he'll make it.  I really like Nieuwenhuis a lot and hope he sticks around enough that "Captain Kirk" becomes a nickname that goes down in Mets lore.  He works hard, he has a certain flair to his play, and he fits a huge need for this team if he pans out.

 

Before he got hurt in 2011, he was hitting .298 in AAA and he had a .908 OPS...

True, and that was a great stretch...but only 221 AB.  Still you can't ignore it.  His AA stats in general were also very good.  Can he make it?  Sure, and I really hope he does.  However, the trend as the season wore on last year (in addition to what we saw while watching those games) makes the early part seem like the outlier instead of the last couple of months.  The history of the majors is littered with players who burst out of the gate strong and then couldn't keep up when the league figured them out.

I honestly don't think the guy will be a star in the ML...but I do think he can be a servicable platoon player like
 
Seth Smith
2010-358 AB/17/52
2011-476 AB/15/59
2012-383 AB/ 14/52 

OR

SHELLY DUNCAN
2010-229 AB/11/36
2011-223 AB/11/47
2012-232 AB/11/31

Nieuwenhuis has more speed than both of them and he is a better defender too...I can see him maintain a .260 BA with the right ABs

You need players like this on your team...

thomasam,  neither July or the K's were ignored in that 8 player comparison.  The only reason I left July off that late example of his numbers fading as the year progress was the few ABs (43) in July.  If anything it just would have shown a continuation of his trend. 

Well yes, it was about half the AB he was getting in the earlier months, but part of the reason for that is he fell off so badly.  His insane BABIP in the first couple of months came down to earth after that.

He's got talent.  The question just comes down to is he a AAAA center fielder or a real major league talent?  Spring training should help us find out a ltitle about that.  He's definitely going to get every possible chance to show he can do it.