2013 fantasy football PPR advice needed

I am in a 10 team dynasty league and we can keep 5 players from previous year.  The position that you drafted the person from previous years takes up that draft position.

4 of my picks are going to be set:
4th round: Dez Bryant
7th round: Marshon Lynch
14th round: Andrew Luck
15th round: Rob Gronkowski

I have to add one more player, and I am trying to pick from the following:

8th round: Ryan Matthews
8th round: Ben Jarvis Green Ellis
13th round: Vic Ballard

Running backs are a premium and are hard to get.  I will have the 1st, 5th, 8th, 15th, and 21st pick in the draft.  For the 1st pick, the best two available running backs open will be Mcfadden or Wilson.  I could also pick a WR such as Cobb, Crabtree, or Decker.

Any advise would be appreciated.  It is a 1 pt PPR.

Go Bears!!!

I'd retain Vic Ballard in the 13th, then grab Wilson, followed by one of those WR's (whoever is left) with your 5th.  After that, I think I'd go after WR's on the next two picks. 

I like Luck, but in a 10-team league there are simply too many terrific fantasy QBs ahead of him to justify keeping him. Some day he may be a top-5 fantasy QB, but not until a lot of current QBs retire - too long to speculate with a keeper spot if you only have 5, IMHO. I'd keep Mathews and BJGE and drop Luck. I'm sure there will be guys like Romo, Roethlisberger, Dalton, Freeman or Vick floating around - and if you take David Wilson or McFadden you'll be in very good shape at RB for a few years to come. Decker is too dependent on an aging Peyton Manning to have dynasty value - I'd go with Crabtree at WR out of the three you listed.

Ballard has the most upside IMO, plus thats late in the draft to get skipped so no worries. 

He's only using a 14th round pick for Andrew Luck so there's no reason not to draft another starting quality passer. It just means he doesn't have to break his draft to get a safe one ASAP. I think Luck a great keeper choice with excellent long term potential as long as you don't reach for him - which he didn't.

Because I wouldn't touch Ryan Matthews with anything more than a throwaway pick. His yards per carry and goal line efficiency are both awful and he also is constantly nicked up with nagging injuries. The new Chargers management realizes he's a colossal bust and are certain to draft at least one runner, whether they get someone in free agency or not.

I'd go with BJGE for an 8th round pick as my 5th keeper. They'll probably bring in a change of pace guy, but the Law Firm should still end up with most of the first and second down plus short yardage work. At worst (barring injury) he'll be a spot starter and you could do much worse with an 8th round pick.

One question about the league format. Can you conveivably keep players forever, or is there only a set amount of time before someone must go back into the draft pool? 

You can keep players forever.  I pulled Gronk off of free agency early in the season 2 years ago.  The key is through the years find keepers low in the draft that you can hold onto so you can keep your early draft picks open.  It isnt easy, however.  Last year I traded Charles (1st), Fred Jackson (8th), and Nicks (3rd) for Lynch (7th).  Lynch in the 7th round, for as long as I want to keep him, is worth everything.  Because of the trade, I get my 1st round pick back since I traded Charles. 

Can't argue with your four keepers. Luck has too much value and is too good. Everyone will keep a QB in a 10 team league keeping 5 players. You should be able to look at their rosters and see whom they will keep. See if a better QB will be available. I doubt it.

Mathews, BGE and Ballard have too many questions. Other three are no-brainers. My guess would be once it all shakes out in training camp Mathews will have more upside in a PPR league. BGE wont catch a pass and Ballard may not even be the starter. An 8th rounder on Mathews is good value if they don't bring in another RB to start.

As for first two picks, that is tough. McFadden is such a question mark but we all know his capabilities. Wilson probably won't be the starter. Cobb is still developing but has more upside than anyone. I believe he'll be a PPR monster with 100+ catches soon. Decker will be a solid PPR star for as long as Manning is the QB. IMO those two wr's would be the safest and best choices. But it's still early. Training camp may show something else like Ballard being the one and only. That would be a good thing.

i agree totally with mully on this. i would rank them mathews, law firm, ballard (at this moment) but it could very easily and i believe probably will shake out ballard if he gets the commitment. if he does i would probably go ballard based on his youth and room to grow alone. the team is not commited at all to Donald Brown and i think san diego will definitely draft a rb to come in and compete with mathews. be patient, time will tell you how this thing is going to play.