Original LOCK Thread - 2/28/2013 - Post Your LOCK

I will be playing South Carolina +9.5 tonight.

9.5 seems like a lot of points for Missouri to cover on the road when their only win on the road since Jan has been against 7-20 (2-13) Mississippi State team. Other losses include (most recent games first)
Kentucky 20-8 (11-4) Arkansas 17-11 (8-7) Tex AM 16-12 (6-9) LSU 17-9 (8-7) Fla 22-5 (12-3) Ole Miss 21-7 (10-5). In those 7 games they avg 67PF and 67PA

Also not saying SC is a home juggernaut...2 wins in 7 at home came against Ole Miss by 1 and Arkansas by 21. Losses to LSU 17-9 (8-7) Tenn 17-10 (9-6) Georgia 13-15 (7-8) Vandy 12-15 (6-9) Auburn 9-19 (3-12). They avg 62PF and 64PA at home.

When these two met in Missouri Jan 22 Mizzoo won 71-65. I will be taking the points and ML.

GL All

.

The thread was 7-6 on LOCKS last night, so not great but still operating in the black every night.  If 7-6 is a bad night, then the thread is in pretty good shape.

Good luck tonight everyone.  Going to post a Top LOCKers post in a few.

usc holmey ill b lookin for ur lock bro

Good afternoon lockers....i am goin to take another stab at locking a recorded win.  I stand at 0-2 on locks so far this year so take that for what its worth.

LOCK MIDDLE TEN ST -12 Vs TROY 

Middle Tenn St is 17-1 in conference and 25-4 overall.  they have been on an amazing roll since Feb 2nd winning 6 games by an average of 27 pts a game.  They won their last two by 35 and 41.  Included in that 6 game streak is a 52 point win against Troy.  Schedule strength is tricky when you look at conferences like this, but MTST (25-4) schedule is 209 (2nd best in league) while Troy (11-18) schedule is 291 (2nd worst in league).

The two locks ive had have been similar to this type of game and the team came out flat, turned it on in the second half only to lose ATS by a bucket.  heres hoping MTST comes to play.     

Top LOCKers for 2013 based on at least two LOCKS

Ranked based on -110/-100 bet ratio and resulting profit

CURRENT LOCK GOD
lock4u2 -- 14-4

LOCK ELITE - (+300 or better)
USC Holmey -- 9-2
NEGRIL JA. -- 10-3
appleton40 -- 4-0
Feathers2222 -- 4-0
jaxfan100 - 5-1
gmanhall -- 6-2-1
CrispskrillA -- 9-5

LOCK STUDS - (+299 to +150)
georgec -- 4-1
east coast bias -- 4-1
LBJinSOBE -- 4-1-1
CitizenDick74 -- 6-3
EAGLE EYE 5 -- 10-7
makaveli0529 -- 2-0
wdh -- 2-0
Balls1 -- 3-1
vinceferragamo -- 3-1
StlCards2000 -- 4-2
neci0170 -- 5-3-2
rockafella -- 6-4

PROFITABLE LOCKERS - (+149 to +1)
5zuperman5 - 2-1
ttownandy -- 2-1
jimmybigmits -- 3-2-1
therainking -- 4-3
jperk429 -- 4-3
brownsfan97 -- 5-4-2


These are the LOCKers who are showing a profit after juice with at least two tracked LOCKS.  If you think I may have missed a posted LOCK (as long as it adhered to the LOCK parameters outlined in the first post of the thread) then please call it to my attention.

Also, if you are not on here but still want to know your LOCK record, please ask and I will post it for you, out in the open or via PM, whichever you prefer.

Good luck today!

usc holmey ill b lookin for ur lock bro

Not sure I am going to have one today.  Sorry in advance if I don't.

Poop, where you been man?!?!

CBB -- North Carolina won 14 of last 15 games vs Clemson, winning last four by 10-2-5-22 points; UNC won four of last five visits here, winning by 19-22-2-2. Tar Heels are 9-3 in last 12 games but 2-3 in last five on road, winning by 12 at both BC/Ga Tech. ACC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-5 vs spread. Clemson lost five of last six games, losing its last two home games by total of three points. -- Ohio State (-17) outscored Northwestern 14-2 on foul line, won by 10 (69-59) over Wildcats two weeks ago; NU made 11-26 from arc. OSU is 3-4 on Big Dozen road, losing last two, at Michigan/Wisconsin- they've got Indiana on deck. Northwestern lost its last five games, last three by 21+ points- four of its five home losses are by 20+. 13 of last 18 OSU games stayed under total. Big Dozen single digit home dogs are 11-13. -- Detroit is 8-6 against #18 non-conference schedule in country; Titans lost two of last three road games, are 2-5 vs teams in top 75, with three of five losses by 13+ points. Quick turnaround for Titans after winning by point on Senior Night vs Loyola Tuesday. Temple won five of last six games, scoring 80 ppg; they won six of last seven home games, have games with two A-16 lightweights on deck, so no looking ahead here. -- Louisiana Tech (-2.5) survived 51-48 brickfest at Utah State Jan 26, as Tech shot 33% from floor, State 27.3%; Bulldogs won last 16 games- its last three home wins were by 13-13-15 points. State won five of its last seven games; they're 5-2 on WAC road, with losses by 13-11 points. Shaw was 9-16 inside arc in first meeting; other Aggies were 3-25. WAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-14 against the spread. -- San Diego (+5.5) won 70-66 at San Francisco Jan 10, making 11-22 on arc, ending 6-game series skid. USF won last three visits here, by 2-10-11 points. Toreros lost eight of last ten games, losing last four, scoring just 56.3 ppg in last three. USF won four of last five road games; visiting team won six of their last seven games. WCC home teams are 2-10 when spread is 5 or less points. USD lost three of last four at home. -- Cal Bears won last five games, allowing 61 ppg, to get back on bubble; they beat Utah 62-57 (-1) Jan 24, forcing 17 turnovers (+8). Cal won its last five home games, with three of five by 8+. Utah is 1-6 on road, with all six losses by 9+ points, but they're 5-2 vs spread in those setbacks. Cal is 4-2 as home favorite, covering last three. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 4-9 vs spread. 14 of last 18 Cal games stayed under total. -- Missouri (-14) outscored South Carolina 28-11 on foul line in 71-65 home brickfest over Gamecocks Jan 22, where teams combined to make 11-47 behind arc. Mizzou is 1-5 on SEC road, with only win at dreadful Miss State; they're 3-5 in last eight games as favorites. Carolina is 1-7 in last eight games; they're 6-5 as SEC underdogs, 2-2 at home. SEC home underdogs of 11 or less points are 18-10 against the spread. -- Duke won eight in row, 14 of last 15 vs Virginia, winning last three in this arena by 16-18-15 points; Blue Devils are 4-3 on ACC road, 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, 0-3 vs teams in top 60; #17 Virginia is 7-0 at home in ACC, with six wins by 9+ points. Cavaliers lost two of last threr games. ACC home teams are 10-3 when spread is 2 or less points. Duek has revenge game with Miami coming up Saturday. -- Cal Poly shot 57% inside arc, outscored Northridge 24-12 on charity stripe in 75-64 (-6.5) win Jan 26, its third win in last four series games. Home side won last eight series games; Mustangs lost last five visits to Northridge, with four losses by 12+ points. Big West home favorites of less than 5 points are 12-14 vs spread. Matadors lost last three games, by 3-7-12 points; they're 1-4 vs spread as Big West home favorites. -- Pacific lost its last two visits to Fullerton by 3-5 points; Tigers made 8-13 from arc in 71-67 (-7) home win over Fullerton Jan 26; Titans were 12-24 from arc, in first series loss in last five games. Pacific lost four of last six games; they lost last four road games, by 5-13-5-9 points. Titans are 1-6 vs spread as Big West home favorite, with one win by more than 7. Big West home teams are 14-18 when spread is less than five points. -- Oregon (-2) shot 61% inside arc, won 79-66 in Corvallis Jan 6, fourth win in last five series tilts; State won two of last three visits to Eugene- they're 5-1 as Pac-12 road dogs, losing away games by 10-1-3-8-10, with win at Wash State. Four of last five Beaver games stayed under the total. Pac-12 single digit home favorites are 19-36 vs spread. Oregon won four of last five games; they're 1-6 vs spread as a Pac-12 home favorite. -- Gonzaga shot 70% inside arc, was up 40-21 at half of 83-63 win over BYU Jan 24, its third win in row over Cougars, by 11-19-20. Zags won last 10 games in row; five of their seven WCC road wins are by double digits. BYU lost three of last five games; they're 5-2 at home in WCC, losing by point to St Mary's, 12 to USF. WCC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 2-7 vs spread. Zags playing for #1 seed in tourney now. -- Rider (+2.5) shot 53% inside arc, beat Niagara 72-69 (+2.5) Feb 7, 6th win in last seven series games for Broncs, who won two of last three at Niagara, winning by 1-17 points. Rider won five of last six games, giving up 61.3 ppg in last three; they're 4-3 on MAAC road, losing by 6-10-7. Niagara won 10 of last 13 games; six of its last eight games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. MAAC single digit home faves are 16-23 Lakers4life One luv Negril JA!

Does anyone have a way to look up the stats on Pac-12 home dogs vs. the spread and moneyline in Pac-12 league play this year?  I would love to see the stats both for the whole Pac-12 season, and also like the last 4 weeks.

Thanks in advance if you have a way to look it up.

Does anyone have a way to look up the stats on Pac-12 home dogs vs. the spread and moneyline in Pac-12 league play this year?  I would love to see the stats both for the whole Pac-12 season, and also like the last 4 weeks.

Thanks in advance if you have a way to look it up.

2012 Pac 12
Home Dogs ATS:  15-6
Home Dogs ML: 8-13

February 2012 Pac 12
Home Dogs ATS: 7-3
Home Dogs ML: 4-6

<a href="http://g.sportsdatabase.com/ncaabb/query?sdql=conference+%3D+P12+and+o%3Aconference+%3D+P12+and+season%3D2012+and+HD&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21" target="_blank">LINK TO RESULTS 

Scores and odds .com will give you most of that info I think. Maybe not all but most

Thanks guys!  Home dogs in the Pac-12 are paying off big.  Those moneyline numbers are pretty sweet too.  I know a several of those were +7 to +12 dogs too.

Appreciate it.  I'll bookmark that link too.

Those are some good sites, guys.  I appreciate it.  I never look at any numbers except the most basic of ones.  I go 90% off of what I see in previous games and in quotes from players and coaches. 

It going to be hard to ignore those sortable numbers though.  I am a numbers freak but I don't really want to change how I do things, so I am not sure if I should ignore them or not.

I do love me my stats though!

Thanks again.

Push on the Golf lock - both players shot 1 under.  Potter got off cold and couldnt recover all the way

I dont understand this Ohio St line at all.  Since NW only lost by 10 in Columbus they have lost by an average of 27 points in their next 3 games. This team has no offense right now whatsoever with their injuries (and didnt have an abundance to start with). Now Swopeshire is out for the year - if Alex Olah doesn't play (see questionable cant find solid yes or no yet) this can get really ugly.

My guess is what is driving the line is Ohio State's difficulties in Evanston the last two seasons. Last year they won on a buzzer beater and in 2011 they barely snuck one out winning on a last second FT as the number 1 ranked team.

On the flip side, maybe this makes them come out and absolutely expose a terribly banged up team on their home court from the beginning making sure that there is no chance of another close one.

I think the 1st half may be the best play.