Running Backs Scarcity

In 2013 it will be particularly difficult to find running backs.  The old guard running backs are starting to lose carries to the newbies and more teams are switching to time shares with the goal of preserving the health of each back.  As I go through each scenario, you can see what I am talking about.

Ravens: One Old Guard (Rice) who will be losing carries to Newbie. Newbie actually ran harder in the playoffs.
Bengels: One Old Guard (BJGE) who got all carries.  Team is searching for 2nd back for change of pace.
Browns: One Stud. Richardson is the man.
Steelers: Who the heck knows.  Probably free agent signing with time share with newbie.

Texans: One Old Guard (Foster) who is bound to slow down. Nobody is there is push him too hard.
Colts: One Newbie and a team looking for a timeshare.
Jaguars: One Old Guard (MJD) who we dont know what he will look like. Not much behind him.
Titans: One Old Guard (Johnson) with nobody behind him.  He is the man in Titanland.

Bills: One Stud (Spiller) with maybe Jackson behind him.  Spiller is the man.
Dolpins: Newbie (Miller) will start, but total timeshare.
Patriots: System makes Ridley a stud with lots of backups.
Jets: Nobody wants to touch these running backs. Powell will probably start.

Broncos: Best guess is running back by committee.  Top running back could be low end RB2.
Chargers: Matthews is still the guy until he gets hurt again or they bring in backup to challenge.
Raiders: Old Guard (Mcfadden) is the guy but how much will they run if they are down by 14 after the 1st quarter.
Chiefs: Old Guard (Charles)is a stud with nobody behind him.  How much will they run under Reid if they are down big.

49ers: Old Guard (Gore) is getting older and will start losing carries to Hunter/James.
Seahawks: Old Guard (Lynch) is the man.
Cardinals: Nobody wants to touch this mess.
Rams: Old Guard (Jackson) is gone.  It looks like running back by committee.

Cowboys: Newbie (Murrary) could be the man but can he stay on the field.  Cowboys looking for bigger backup to maybe steal goal line carries.
Redskins: Morris is the man if RG3 is with him.  What will Morris look like without RG3?  Will he still be RB1 material?
Eagles: Old Guard (McCoy) may be sleeper for best overall back in 2013 if Kelly's offense throws to him alot especially in PPR formats.  Brown could be good numbers similar to Tate in Houston.
Giants: Timeshare between Wilson and Brown.  I think RB2-RB3 between the two.  Wilson is overrated.  How is he different than Ronnie Hillman who nobody talks about?

Falcons: Nobody right now.  If Jackson goes here, he could be low end RB1 for one year.
Panthers: Timeshare at this point.  Nothing higher than RB3 on this team.
Buccaneers: Newbie (Martin) is a stud.  Nobody behind him.
Saints: Lots of yuck other than Sproles in a PPR.

Bears: Old Guard (Forte) is the man in Chicago if he can stay healthy, but he sucks around goal line.
Packers: Good landing spot for free agent.  With right guy could be low end RB1 or high RB2.
Vikings: They have what's his name who is okay.
Lions: Timeshare is coming even though Leshoure is the main guy now.

As you go through each team, I can only find about 12 guys who you can potentially get 100 yards and a couple of catches each week.  There are alot of question marks entering 2013.

You can put this up almost every single year, just swap out a few names..seems like its alwaus been this way.  Basically you've just spelled oit why RB's dominate the first two rounds of most fantasy drafts, always has been this way, probably always will.

I dunno, Treff. Looking at his list, I'd say eleven teams had higher-rated lead backs (from FF perspective) coming into last season than they do now:

Ravens
Raiders
Steelers
Jets
Broncos
Chargers
49ers
Cardinals
Rams
Giants
Falcons

...while only four teams have higher-rated lead backs now than they did last July:

Bills
Redskins
Browns
Bucs

Free agency and the draft may change two or three of that first bunch of teams, but even so I think dude's right - the top of the fantasy RB pool looks thinner. But the truth is this means there are more opportunities for worthwhile fanatsy RBs to emerge - the trick this year is to get those mystery RBs on your team.

oh, i ain't arguing, I think he's right..and becuase of that, anyone that wants a true, week to week double digit point threat, will have to get them early (like they always do) , thus the reasoning behind the old RB first theory, there's never been more than 10-15 RB's that fit that mold, and in a 12 team league, if you don't take one in the first, chances are you don't get one. 

Even in the RB glory days of Emmit, Barry and Alexander..than later with Holmes, LT, and Faulk..there's never been a surplus of dependable fantasy RB's.  There's probablyore question marks given all the two back systems that are en vogue, but any one of those two backs are still like picking a sub par "lead" back from "back in the day", so really not much has changed..except more research and studying is required..plus a little luck never hurts 

Wilwhite is right.  Except McCoy was also higher ranked this year than last, and Charles (Chiefs) is higher this year than last.  There is clearly a chaning of the guard though...Gore is about the same too, and now Wilson is about the same as Bradshaw was last year. 
So with the studs: Peterson, Foster, Rice, Lynch, McCoy, and Charles
Lesser established guys: Forte, MJD, Johnson, McFadden, and Gore
Newbies: T. Rich, Alf, Martin, Murray, Spiller, Leshore, and Ridley

That's 18 guys who should be starting in >95% of leagues all year long, pending busts and injuries.  Getting 2 of these guys will be the key to feeling good about your draft this August.
 
But that also, that leaves another 18 teams looking for their #1 back.  Some are easy to predict pending free agency and the draft.  BJGE, Matthews, Sproles...maybe SJax depending on location...these guys won't be the difference makers next year, but are safe enough.

There is enough opportunity though to hit it big with the up and coming players like Wilson, whoever starts in Denver, and Atlanta, potentially Lamar Miller, or Daryl Richardson, Dwyer in Pittsburgh, and other established timeshares or dead zones like Carolina, Arizona, Green Bay and the Jets.  Could Ballard turn in a #2 fantasy season in Indy? 

Those are the 32 situations.  You want either 2 of the top 18 who actually finish in the top 18...or one stud and enough of the lesser guys to hit on one who finishes in the top 18.  The latter will probably mean you were able to get a good #1 WR or QB, which means your staring lineup is probably better than average, but it's a gamble...which is why we are paying attention now to catch on to what the trends, and new coaches and their offenses will look like next year.