Cubs Farm 5th Best in Baseball

Valid points, Silence, regarding Law's preference of upside or future potential.  I figured he was looking at the ceilings of some of the Cubs pitching prospects (Maples, Johnson & Underwood) as 1's & 2's, along with mid rotation/back end relievers like Paniagua, Vizcaino, Wells, Blackburn & Loux; so I did a google search and confirmed this idea:

[http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/
2013/02/unique-perspective-on-cubs-
sp-prospects-the-key-as-law-ranks-s
ystem-5-overall/]

If anyone feels strongly enough about the Cubs pitching prospects, then of coarse they are going to push them up as most have them ranked around 10 based primarily on 4 position prospects (Baez, Almora, Soler & Vogelbach), and exclude some possible future Major League players (Candelario, Villanueva, Lake, Alcantara, Hernandez & Jackson if his new plate approach fixes the K rates).

Another thing that Law is likely doing is overvaluing the Cubs now with expectations of what they will do in the 2013 draft.  He is jumping the gun a bit on other prospect ranker's such as Baseball America, John Sickels & Jonathan Mayo (links to their stuff below).

[http://chicagocubsonline.com/archiv
es/2013/01/cubs-system-ranked-tenth
-by-minor-league-ball-and-other-pro
spect-news.php]

Well, I am not a big fan of Law. Some people really like him and some people really dont like him. I think he is alright. I think he gets an opinion about a guy and will never change his mind even if he makes adjustments. The reason Law has the Cubs so high is because he is real big on Vizcaino and Paniagua. Vizcaino did not make many top 100 list, but you can guarantee he will be on Law's. He has a man crush on them two. Could be valid. Time will tell. On the other end, he hates Szczur and Lake. I think he may actually hate Szczur. He likes to take shots at him in his Q&A's.haha

The reason Law has the Cubsso high is because he is real big on Vizcaino and Paniagua. Vizcaino did not make many top 100 list, but you can guarantee he will be on Law's. He has a man crush on them two.

He does have Arodys Vizcaino ranked at #64. Juan Carlos Paniagua did not make the Top 100.

Javier Baez leads the way at #31, Albert Almora is at #33, and Jorge Soler is #42. He also lists Jeimer Candelario is his ten who just missed the list.

On the other end, he hates Szczur and Lake. I think he may actually hate Szczur. He likes to take shots at him in his Q&A's.haha

He really does! He hasn't acknowledged, as far as I've seen, Szczur's improved plate discipline this year, though I think his argument of the "slappiness" of Szczur's swing carries some merit. 

He's also not a Dan Vogelbach fan. Loves the raw power, but says the defense is too otrocious to even garner consideration as a top prospect (for a National League team, anyway). We'll see if the weight loss this offseason changes Law's mind on him. His bat alone, in my opinion, should get him in the Top 100 on anyone's list.
 

One of the thing's I like about Keith Law is that he goes into serious depth with his analysis of prospects, focusing on finer points of the game like a batter's hand placement, a batter's stride, or a pitcher's arm speed deception, to give you a few examples. Not your typical jargin that you get from, say, Jonathan Mayo. I'll post his scouting reports here for all those who don't have Insider, beginning with Javier Baez.

#31 Javier Baez

Baez might have the best bat speed in the minors, and he certainly has the angriest swing, often reminiscent of John Belushi's samurai character from "Saturday Night Live." (Of course, when Baez was born, Belushi had been dead for a decade, so perhaps I need a more contemporary reference.)

His hands are explosive, and the bat speed is so good that he's already got plus-plus raw power and can drive the ball out to the opposite field like he's tying his shoes. He's also one of the least patient hitters in the minors, approaching each pitch in fourth gear, swinging and missing because he doesn't shorten up or otherwise adjust his swing to the situation. In the field, he's quieted doubts about his ability to stay at shortstop; he has the agility and instincts for it, as well as a plus arm, so the only major issue is whether he eventually outgrows the position.

He's one of the highest-beta prospects on this list -- he could be a 30-homer shortstop, or he could stall out in Double-A because pitchers exploit him and he can't adjust. I'm willing, for now, to bet on the former.

#33 Albert Almora

The joke in scouting circles last spring was that Cubs President Theo Epstein didn't just want to draft Almora, he wanted to adopt him. Almora is a natural center fielder who has outstanding instincts, especially when reading the ball off the bat, so even though he's an average runner he plays with plus range and has an above-average arm.

Almora starts his swing with a high leg kick but gets his foot down in time, with a very steady, controlled swing that has plenty of hip rotation for power without sacrificing his ability to square up the ball for solid contact. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and doesn't swing and miss much, even with the wood bat. His lack of patience in his pro debut (two walks in 145 plate appearances) was something of a surprise, although he might have just wanted to fit in with all of the Cubs' other hitting prospects.

His ceiling is as a high-average hitter with plus defense in center and 20 home runs, although he's going to have to show he can take a pitch now and then to get there.

#42 Jorge Soler

Soler signed before the new CBA rules on enriching owners at the expense of impoverished Latin American kids went into effect, signing with the Cubs for a $6 million bonus and $24 million in salary over nine years, although he can opt out of the deal if he becomes eligible for salary arbitration.

He's a wiry, athletic outfielder with explosive hands at the plate, starting them high and deep but getting them moving so quickly that he has no trouble catching up to good velocity. He doesn't look like a typical power hitter, but he's got the quick-twitch muscles to be able to rotate the bat through the zone and drive the ball out to left-center like an older or more physical player would. On defense, he might be playable in center for now but the Cubs have him in right, which would be his long-term position regardless.

Soler only played 34 games last summer after signing, but it's a point in his favor that he struck out just 19 times even though he hadn't faced live pitching on a regular basis in nearly two years. At just 21 this year, he should be able to get to Double-A with the upside of an above-average regular in right who should peak in the 25-30 home run range.

#64 Arodys Vizcaino

Vizcaino entered 2012 with a partial ligament tear in his right elbow, and in March he underwent surgery to repair it, ending his season before it began, although he did find himself part of a midyear trade from the Braves to the Cubs in exchange for Paul Maholm.

When healthy, Vizcaino has electric stuff, a top-of-the-rotation arsenal with a lightning-quick arm, needing work on command and refinement on his changeup a little further to reach that potential -- and, of course, to stay healthy.

Before the surgery, Vizcaino would work at 92-96 as a starter and hit 98 when he worked in relief for Atlanta late in 2011. The pitch doesn't sink but does have late life up in the zone. He has a hard curveball that works at near-slider velocity with hard two-plane break and good depth. The changeup has good arm speed, and improving it is a question of feel, something he'll get with reps. His arm works well aside from a lack of extension out front, and he gets on top of the ball enough to get that depth on the breaking ball.

The Cubs will likely bring him back slowly this year, so if he appears in the majors at all in 2013, I'd speculate that it would be in relief, with a rotation spot by mid-2014 a more realistic goal.

Keith Law is having a chat right now on ESPN.com and he's answered a few questions about Cubs prospects. Here are some of the highlights (note, chats often include less analysis and quite a bit of snark):

Hey Look (I'm on the Internet)

Obligatory Klawchat Dan Vogelbach question

Klaw  (12:09 PM)

Obligatory reference to his weight

Tim (Smithtown)

Most overrated prospect by fans.....Mike Olt?

Klaw  (12:16 PM)

He'd be in the mix. Solid player, not a star. Syndergaard, but that may just be a function of unverified reports he threw 102 plus the coverage he got when he was traded. Also a solid prospect. I'm ignoring the guys like Ruf, Gattis, Junior Lake, Szczur, fringy guys who are treated by their own fans as future stars.

Colin (Chicago)

How close was Pierce Johnson?

Klaw  (12:16 PM)

Wasn't. Arm action scares me. Would at least like to see a full healthy year first, since he's had so much forearm trouble.

Joe (Chicago)

The Cubs have the #2 pick in the draft this year. Mark Appel, Ryne Stanek and Austin Meadows are all possibilities. Which player do you believe the Cubs should draft at that spot? Should they go with the best pitcher available to continue building depth in the organization or go with the best available player even if it isn't a pitcher?

Klaw  (12:33 PM)

You forgot Sean Manaea, Austin Wilson, maybe Jonathan Crawford ... it's early, way too early to narrow the list. They should just take the best player available.

Keith (Cleveland)

How AWFUL is Baez's approach at the plate? I read your report, and you are optimistic he could develop, but how close is he to that big bust territory?

Klaw  (12:49 PM)

He can hit a lot of pitches. Just not all of them.

Jon (DC)

Gigger waste of money? Matt Hobgood, Hayden Simpson, or Geraldo Concepcion

Klaw  (12:52 PM)

Concepcion was the worst of the three.

bubblesdachimp (DC)

Brett Jackson any hope at all to be a first division regular? Or fourth-fifth OF at best?

Klaw  (1:10 PM)

I'd say extra outfielder. We'll see if the swing changes he allegedly has made amount to anything. My skepticism on him was always a function of his swing and thus his hit tool.

Ranked #5 by Law and around #10 by most experts,not bad at all since their farm system was ranked 27th when JedStien took over,a far cry over the last front office,so basically Jed Stien has the current farm system very close to the ranking it had when Jim Hendry took over.

And we can all hope that at least one of these kids will pan out and be a star for the major league team.  Farm system at 5 and our team at what...2nd to last?  Good thing Houston still fields a team.

Don't normally care about prospects until they get to AA. Fact that that this topic even matters says a lot.

And we can all hope that at least one of these kids will pan out and be a star for the major league team.  Farm system at 5 and our team at what...2nd to last?  Good thing Houston still fields a team.

My thoughts exactly.

I've never bought into prospect rankings or which retard or group of retards does it best.

It's just nice to know that our Boy Blunders invested millions, with the great big office full of people, in Germhole.

A gigantic version of lightning in a bottle, that makes more money than alot of the ML players the Cubs field, and couldn't throw a terd at a full sheet of plywood without missing it.

Cheers to our great scouting department. Who would have known they were so intelligent.

I guess Hendry would have spent the money on a productive major leaguer that would have handcuffed the franchise financially for half a decade.

Nice to see 6 million thrown down the crapper instead.

And we can all hope that at least one of these kids will pan out and be a star for the major league team.  Farm system at 5 and our team at what...2nd to last?  Good thing Houston still fields a team.

Right now best bets look like Soler and Baez......

Actually he's quite astute

I'm indifferent on Keith Law, but Jeff; you did cite earlier his obvious disliking for Matt Szczur; is that him being astute or biased?  Or you being "half full" on his current changes?  I think Vizcaino is far too high personally.....pre-injury was one thing;

Good find on the dialouge questions.....He clearly felt similar to Chris Sale as he does to Pierce Johnson (I believe their throwing motions/windups are similar at 3/4, just different handedness and more subject to possible injury).  Granted this is a heavily biased White Sox blog taken from [http://www.southsidesox.com/2011/12
/1/2603257/keith-law-still-cannot-a
dmit-he-was-wrong-about-chris-sale], but:

Keith, what are your thoughts on Chris Sale?

Klaw(1:25 PM)

I ranked him 47th. The White Sox took him 13th. You do the math.

Justin (Aus)

Speaking of the draft… what are your thoughts on Chris Sale’s mechanics? I recently saw a scouting video and, well, wow. It looked like an injury waiting to happen.

Klaw (1:18 PM)

I don’t love the arm action, but this idea that arm action guarantees injury has to die. It’s all probability, and there have been pitchers with subpar mechanics who’ve pitched in the majors for several years before getting hurt, as well as plenty of pitchers with "clean" arm actions who got hurt anyway. Back to Sale, I’m more concerned that he’s a sidearming lefty without much of a breaking ball. If you knew nothing about him but that one sentence, what would you say if he was in the big leagues?


Even though its been a small, 1 year sample size as a starter--I'd say Chris Sale has one of the better sliders in the league......needs some work on his longevity through a longer season obviously......but to Salami's point; Law has been blatently wrong/stubborn before.

A guy on BrewersCubs did an interview with Law and he said that the reason Law makes Szczur comments is to get a rise out of certain Cubs fans. He said it stemmed back to when he said he thought Szczur was no better than a 4th OF and Cubs fans pretty much went crazy on him about it. So, he will make Szczur references just to kind of poke the part of the fan base that thinks every prospect is good.

My problem with Law is that it seems he doesnt change his mind much which is good and bad. He will cite why he thinks a player wont make it, but when that player fixes that flaw. He wont turn around and give them credit. His biggest knock on Szczur was slap hitting with very little walks. Now, Szczur has improved his walk rate greatly and Law wont recognize it. Kind of the same with Volgelbach. His biggest issue is size and he says he is not athletic but he also said to slow of hands. Well, his hands sure didnt have problems last year but he wont really budge on him.

My problem with Law is that it seems he doesnt change his mind much which is good and bad. He will cite why he thinks a player wont make it, but when that player fixes that flaw. He wont turn around and give them credit.

He will admit when he's wrong when asked. There was a chat recently in which he admitted he undervalued John Jay, and in this most recent chat he also mentioned that he missed badly on Justin Smoak. For the most part, though, I would say he's on point.

Kind of the same with Volgelbach. His biggest issue is size and he says he is not athletic but he also said to slow of hands. Well, his hands sure didnt have problems last year but he wont really budge on him.

Today, he posted his top ten Cubs prospects and dedicated the second half of his farm system overview to Dan Vogelbach. Here's what he wrote:

I should mention Dan Vogelbach here, since I'm so often asked about him: He has 80-grade raw power and he has a pretty good idea at the plate, but he's a brutal athlete with no position. So unless the Cubs follow the Astros to the American League, I don't see how or where they use him, assuming that pitchers don't take advantage of his lack of flexibility and limited coverage on the outer half. 

For those interested, here are Law's top ten Cubs prospects:

1. [Javier Baez], SS (31)
2. [Albert Almora], CF (33)
3. [Jorge Soler], RF (42)
4. [Arodys Vizcaino], RHP (64)
5. Jeimer Candelario, 3B (in first ten out of top 100)
6. Duane Underwood, RHP
7. Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP
8. Pierce Johnson, RHP
9. Paul Blackburn, RHP
10. Arismendy Alcantara, SS 

I have also read scouts who say Volgelbach is athletic just a big body. Law seems to think the complete opposite.

I have also read scouts who say Volgelbach is athletic just a big body. Law seems to think the complete opposite.

He hit three triples last season, so he can't be a complete waste of an athlete.

I'm intrigued by his supposed offseason weght loss and how it affects both his power and his defense.

Yea, i saw this already. I love the Szczur comment. He enver disappoints on getting a little jab at him.

#42 Jorge Soler

Considering what the Cubs paid for him.....

You would think that this guy would be ranked much higher and comparisions being made with Bryce Harper this season.

I guess Nate Schietholez and DeJesus are blocking him.....

Or maybe they just overpaid for this "can't miss" future superstar that needs, at least, two more years in the minors first.

Oh Boy !!!!!

I can't wait !!!! 

 

We'll see if the weight loss this offseason changes Law's mind on him.

Who cares.

Law can rot and his track record shows that he's an absloute baffoon.

He's the only one that I've read that gets shriveled wood when he notices Dan's "weight".

What's even more laughable is that I haven't read anyone elses' "expert opinion" claiming Dan's defense is horrible.

Sounds to me like Dan refused Law's invitation to short stroke him.

Law can rot and his track record shows that he's an absloute baffoon.

Actually he's quite astute, and I'm not sure what you see in his track record makes him a "buffoon", but feel free to share. As usual, anyone that doesn't share the exact same opinion as you must not know what he's talking about, in spite of all his credentials.

He's the only one that I've read that gets shriveled wood when he notices Dan's "weight".

What's even more laughable is that I haven't read anyone elses' "expert opinion" claiming Dan's defense is horrible.

Then read more. From a Carrie Muskat article back in November:

"He's pretty advanced with his approach and what he wants to do," said Jason McLeod, the Cubs' player development and scouting director. "A lot of [his work at instructional league] is defensive-based. He's working on his body -- that's going to be an area for him consistently. He's a bigger guy, so he needs to work on agility, flexibility, defense.

"He knows what he wants to do at the plate, can drive the ball to the middle of field. We're focusing on defense and conditioning."

But what does he know. He's just a Major League player development and scouting director, not a troll on a CBS message board.