Michael Bourn

But as I have pointed out in the past, I'm convinced that even if Alderson had money to spend on free agents, he wouldn't spend it. 

Well this is true, he even admitted it himself this offseason.  The man is overly cautious about spending. 

In your opinion, do you think there is anyway Alderson will be fired if the Mets lose about 95 games this year and finish in last place? What do you think has to happen in order for him not to have as much job security? And do you at least slightly feel that maybe, just maybe the team and organization would be better off if whatever will lead to Sandy being fired, actually occurs?

If the Mets lose 95 games this year, which in my opinion it's likely that they lose around 90, then the first one to take the fall will be Terry Collins. Mainly because Collins contract runs out at the end of this season anyway, so they just will hire and try someone new in the dugout.  Alderson got a 5 year contract and a good payday for a GM, he's on his 3rd year so I doubt the Wilpons will fire him (yet)  The Wilpons are the ones who would not allow Alderson to spend at all in the first 2 years. This year Alderson had some flexibitly to spend a little but chose to save some $ for next year, most likely he didn't feel any of the free agents this year were worth paying up for and he knew the Mets had way too many holes and rookies to contend yet anyway. But either way this was the first year that Alderson was the one who chose to save $ and stand pat.

Here's the big issue though, the Wilpons want the seats to be filled. So that's gonna be the game that Alderson's gonna be forced to deal with.  

Let's say the Mets sell a decent amount of tickets for the first month, but have a 9-18 record at the end of April. Obviously a lot of fans are gonna get a bad first impression of the 2013 Mets and be turned off to going to games and ticket sales are gonna go way down. So Alderson will probably respond by bringing up Wheeler or D'arnaud to see if that excites the fanbase a little and boosts ticket sales.  If that doesn't work well enough to keep things interesting in the standings then you'll see another big trade of some sort at the trade deadline and/or a washed out season for ticket sales. Then in the offseason the Wilpons will basically force Alderson to make a big FA signing or 2 out of desperation to sell more tickets. With Santana's monster payday coming off the books, I'd say if Alderson doesn't manage to make at least 1 or 2 big FA signings next Winter with some of the money freed up then he'll definitely be on the hotseat going into the 2014 season.

But realistically, if things go real bad this year we're gonna see a new manager before a new GM. 

But realistically, if things go real bad this year we're gonna see a new manager before a new GM.

Yeah, I agree that Collins will be fired before Alderson. However, even though I don't like Collins too much and feel he should be let go, I don't appreciate that he is most likely going to be the fall guy for the team's shortcomings. At what point do people start blaming Alderson for what is wrong with this team? Because as I have pointed out, I feel he is much more to blame for the problems that the team has than Collins. And if I were the Wilpons, I would be more inclined to fire Alderson than Collins given the current situation. They have to start realizing that maybe the GM they hired is not the right GM to lead the team forward, especially if they want attendance to increase at Citi Field again and make more revenue. As I have written on here before, I truly believe Sandy Alderson will never overpay for a free agent and given the type of season the Mets are most likely going to have in 2013, they are going to have to overpay a free agent to play for them in 2014 and beyond. Hence why if the Wilpons really are interested in adding free agents to the team in 2014, I think that both Alderson and Collins need to be fired by the end of the 2013 season, not just Collins. Firing Collins, but not Alderson, will really do nothing to solve their problems, even if they do hire Backman to replace Collins.

Yeah, no way the GM takes the fall before the first manager does though.  Remember when weak Willie got fired? I thought Minaya should have gotten the boot at that same moment as well, but it took another couple years.  Same thing here, Collins will likely be let go first or not have his contract renewed and Alderson will have another shot with a new manager next year. 

Anyway I took a look at the Mets schedule in April to guess what kind of start they could potentially get off to, as you can see other than 3 games against the Dodgers and 3 against the Nats, we are playing some pretty lousy or mediocre teams for the rest of the month. Which means the Mets may actually get off to a decent start creating a somewhat false illusion that they'll be good this year. It might help in selling a few tickets early on though.

April Schedule

Mon, 4/1 Padres
Wed, 4/3 Padres
Thu, 4/4 Padres

Fri, 4/5 Marlins
Sat, 4/6 Marlins
Sun, 4/7 Marlins

Mon, 4/8 @ Phillies
Tue, 4/9 @ Phillies
Wed, 4/10 @ Phillies

Fri, 4/12 @ Twins
Sat, 4/13 @ Twins
Sun, 4/14 @ Twins

Mon, 4/15 @ Rockies
Tue, 4/16 @ Rockies[
]Wed, 4/17 @ Rockies
Thu, 4/18 @ Rockies

Fri, 4/19 Nationals
Sat, 4/20 Nationals
Sun, 4/21 Nationals

Tue, 4/23 Dodgers
Wed, 4/24 Dodgers 
Thu, 4/25 Dodgers

Fri, 4/26 Phillies
Sat, 4/27 Phillies
Sun, 4/28 Phillies

Mon, 4/29 @ Marlins[
]Tue, 4/30 @ Marlins

Yeah, I remember when Willie Randolph got fired. To this day, I think that had less to do with Omar and more to do with Jeff Wilpon. Jeff Wilpon's handprints were all over the Willie firing if you ask me. Anyway, Omar had 3 winning seasons underneath his watch by that point in time, so I can understand why he was kept around as GM and given the chance to hire another manager. The 2013 season, however, will most likely be Alderson's 3rd losing season in a row, the team will probably have a worse record than they did in 2012 and it doesn't seem as if the team is going to be much better anytime soon. So I could envision the Wilpons giving at least some consideration to firing Alderson before the 2013-2014 off-season. I still think you're right though and that he will be retained as the GM, unfortunately.

And thanks for posting the team's schedule in April. Sure, their games may be against a lot of mediocre to less than mediocre teams in the first month. But remember, the Mets are pretty much less than mediocre too these days, so I am not sure if they will get off to as good of a start as they have gotten off to in previous years. I just have a feeling they are going to be bad right from the start this year.

other than 3 games against the Dodgers and 3 against the Nats, we are playing some pretty lousy or mediocre teams for the rest of the month-ATW

You are underestimating some of thes team starting with the Padres who finished the season 48-36 in the tough NL West

The Phillies lost Ryan Howard  for 90 games and Utley for 80.  Despite a 3.16 ERA Cliff Lee couldn't buy a win and Halliday had an atypical season.  Coming out of the AS break this team was 37-51 and then played .595 ball to finish 81-81.


The Twins are a road series.  Scott Diamond led the team with 27 starts, the Twins were devastated by  injuries to the rotation.  This off season they have added a number of pitchers in an effort to solidify the rotation.  Kevin Correia, Pelfrey, Vance Worley, Rich Harden and Alex Meyer (top prosp. from the Nationals).

The Rockies were also killed by pitching rotation injuries, but have not done enough to shore up a bad rotation.  But this 4 game series is in Denver and Tulo will be in the 4 hole.

Giving the Mets the benefit of the doubt I see a 13-14 record.    


      

wow Yogi (mr negative)

13-14 with that month's schedule? I hate to see your prediction for the other months. 

Anyway yeah i agree with you about the Padres and Phillies to an extent.   

I'm gonna give the Mets a 16-11 record for the month of April before things start to fall apart in the months afterward.  Yeah as Yogi stated the Padres and Phillies are not that bad, but they're not that good either. The 3 games against the Padres are in NY, and 3 of the 6 matches against the Phillies in April are in NY. Then I look at the fact that the 2 toughest teams we go up against in April (the Dodgers and the Nationals) are all home games for us. The only teams we play on the road in April are against the Twins, Rockies, Marlins, and then 3 games against the Phillies. Twins, Rockies, and Marlins are 3 teams that we should be able to take the series from even on the road.

Also, don't forget that Ruiz is out on suspension for the first month of the season Yogi.

ATW, kru  nice exchange about Collins and Alderson, well stated and though out. 

I believe that both are safe for this year.  Alderson has done his job of decontructing better than adequately, he did get returns of Wheeler, d'arnaud and Synderguaad.  He has also brought up and assessed a number of our farm players and that will continue again this year.  However, this phase of the process is now complete.  Rebuilding is next and for that he will need the ability to spend money, given that he will be judged by his additions of players in years 2014 & 15. 

Collins can only be held responsible for meeting expectations.  He has maintained a high level of enthusiam on a club that has headed into the AS break in each of the last two years as contenders and collapsed to fall into the bottom dwellers level by seasons end.  None of Aldersons additions this off season promise to make Collin's job easier this year.  What he will be judged upon is consistant play, another post AS collapse will send the "lost the clubhouse" message whether its true or not.  With this years expectations, 90-95 loses will not cost him his job. The players hold the pink slip, if the team plays with intensity, focus and effort Collins returns.  

Valdespin: Strengths are speed, above average middle infield power (owns Mets record for pinch hit HRs), strong arm, range at second and reckless attitude. His weakness are high K rate, lack of overall contact ability for a guy with his skill set, loses focus both at bat and in the field which creates the perception he is a poor fielder and his attitude which helps drive him to be successful but hinders him in the fine nuances of the game.JoeD

I wonder if the same opinion was given regarding a young Kevin Mitchell in 1984...

Valdespin does have some power, but I'd be hesitant listing the record for pinch-hit HR as a strength.  It was great and the HRs came at exciting times last year, but a lot of that is just luck and a statistical outlier.  You keep going to that well and it's going to dry up fast.

It's an interesting comparison to Mitchell because he did have a similar knock, but there was always something...suspicious about Mitchell's sudden breakout.  

Thomas I understand what Valdespin is and can be. The pinch hit HRs are important in the fact that he currently is the best crunch time bat based on last year. The kid has the "it" factor and doesn't shy away from the big spot. He is by no means a star but don't under cut what he does. Right now as we speak I feel just as comfortable with him up in a big spot as anyone else on the roster. He deserves a spot on the team due to his versatility (Yogi, you don't bring up Valdespin had to learn the outfield on the fly) and bravado (most of the team is an episode of "The Walking Dead"). Once again I don't consider him a star or starter but he does offer up speed, some power, versatility and a want to win at all cost attitude. A lot of his errors in the minors came from not putting the ball in his back pocket (especially and mostly at SS) and making the ill advised throw showing off his arm. His main problem is he is another lefty bat on a team desperate for a few solid righty hitters. I also wouldn't take him over Murphy but he has a future in MLB especially if he learns to control his temper. It's not like the guy smacked around his girl like K-Rod. That is a real problem.

Crazy Joe I'm not saying Valdespin doesn't deserve a spot on the team or doesn't have value, but the pinch hit HR thing is a fluke.  It made for some of the best moments of the 2012 season for sure, and he doesn't shy away from pressure which is a huge plus, but it's still an outlier in terms of dependability goes.

another post AS collapse will send the "lost the clubhouse" message whether its true or not.  With this years expectations, 90-95 loses will not cost him his job. The players hold the pink slip, if the team plays with intensity, focus and effort Collins returns.  -Yogi

This is the part that is a bit confusing. Because I figure that since we have a somewhat easy schedule in April, we should get off to a decent start. But after that opening month the schedule starts to get tougher, especially after the all-star break. Yogi, you just gave the main reason why Collins likely won't be back... "another post AS collapse" for yet another season will send a bad message to the fans and most players will really start to lose some confidence in his game decisions as well.  I do believe 90-95 losses will cost Collins his job, because his contract expires at the end of this year anyway. Mets will most likley want to try a new skipper considering things couldn't get any worst, only better.  

Collins' job security would be a different story if he were still under contract for next year, then he might have a chance at staying. Unfortunately for him, he's not so he's gonna have to prove he can manage this team to less than 90 losses if he wants to stick around.