METs outfield projections

With no further additions...I predict this

Duda- 400 AB...18 HR/60 RBI/.260
Nieuwenhuis- 350 AB...12 HR/45 RBI/.250
Baxter- 180 AB...4 HR/22 RBI/.265
Valdespin- 275 AB...10 HR/38 RBI/.255
Cowgill- 300 AB...8 HR/30 RBI/.235
Brown- 375 AB...15 HR/50 RBI/.260
Others- 100 AB...7 HR/20 RBI

I think Brown may be the diamond in the rough here...
Put it all together and you get...

74 HR/ 245 RBI

Average of 24.6 HR/ 81.6 RBI for each OF position...maybe a bit optimistic but not too bad if it is close to accurate...

Who would not take 3 starting OF with that line?

You guys are completely forgetting we signed Marlon Byrd with an invite to spring training. Given his MLB experience and after taking a look at all the other guys I would bet the Byrd makes the opening day roster and one of the other guys gets sent down for now. 

How long will Byrd last? I don't know, we know he's a bit of a problem player so we'll see. 

I suspect the runs saved is a function of errors commited.-jokati
Rdrs is a combination of Rof which is a measure of a players OF arm, it factors baserunner advances or Held and Kills (runs thrown out advancing. Rdp double plays, and Rpm Plays made which measures range and errors.  This stat is position specific ie OF, 1B, C, P for example.  dWAR is all encompassing, combining all of a players positions, for Duda it would mix 1B and OF into a single stat.  Valdespin's dWAR would be a measure of OF, 2B and SS. 

My big problem is the very limited dataset you are using for Cowgill/Baxter/Nieuwenhuis.

 That method of using stats makes anyone look good.

That's true but I just presented what existed.  It was intended to leave the judgment to the reader. 

Interested in hearing your 2013 predictions and everyone elses.

For the OF, the one player that I think everyone is expecting a little too much from is Nieuwenhuis.  You can't look at the average production from last year and expect that to continue.  His trends were so dramatically downward that it's not even a given that he'll be in the majors all year.

I have to diagree thomas...he was rushed to the majors last year and thrown into a position that he was not ready for...
Technically...this should be considered to be his rookie year...he is only 25 and he will get stronger and smarter...

I'm going to agree with MrB for the following reason;  Kirk Nieuwenhuis started strong in April and faded month by month until he was sent down in July.



April    .325/.386/.475

May     .263/.337/.300 

June    .238/.281/.464

He probably won't be as good as he started, but also not as poor as he finished,  think .275-.280/.340-.350/.450

          

April    .325/.386/.475

May     .263/.337/.300 

June    .238/.281/.464

Um, Yogi you left out July:

July:   .105/.190/132

Here's the other detail you're ignoring.  Neiuwenhuis' strikeout rate is downright awful:

April:  7 BB, 25 K
May:  10 BB, 29 K
June:  5 BB, 26 K
July:  3 BB, 18 K

That's sort of brutal.  You have to have a LOT of batted balls drop to keep your OBP up when you have plate discpline like that.  His BABIP was an astonishing .362 for the whole 2012 season.  That means it had to be around .500 early on.  That's unsustainable.

 

thomasam,  neither July or the K's were ignored in that 8 player comparison.  The only reason I left July off that late example of his numbers fading as the year progress was the few ABs (43) in July.  If anything it just would have shown a continuation of his trend. 

Well yes, it was about half the AB he was getting in the earlier months, but part of the reason for that is he fell off so badly.  His insane BABIP in the first couple of months came down to earth after that.

He's got talent.  The question just comes down to is he a AAAA center fielder or a real major league talent?  Spring training should help us find out a ltitle about that.  He's definitely going to get every possible chance to show he can do it. 

Yogi as you yourself are saying, these stats give little to no value.

The defensive stats for Vladspin are skewed because of his time playing ss. His defense as an of is better.

But in the end you brought them up because they satisfy your case. 

Yogi as you yourself are saying, these stats give little to no value.

But in the end you brought them up because they satisfy your case.-jokati


My case is that I don't like ballplayers making more money than ever possible and who at age 24 won't put in the effort and have an attitude based on a self appraisal of their ability...or their impression of entitlement.  That is Jordany Valdespin, who is not only a limited defensive player but as yet has not proved that he can hit at this level.  

Valdespin is on the list because he is a candidate for the 2013 OF, the same appraisal of him was applied to the other 7 OFs and by using Rdrs his play at SS and 2B was not factored into the defensive metric.  I would suggest that his -5 was based on lack of hustle and as you perhaps saw was the play in LF when he threw up his hands indicating that the ball was out of play while it was 5 feet away, in plain view to all including JV, sitting next to the infield tarp.


I've been eaten alive for my support for players that failed from lack of ability or physical/mental makeup; Castillo, Pelfrey, Bay and for a brief time Perez.  Perez lost my support when the lack of self disipline and selfishness became evident.   But for me to support a player with an attiude and a poor work ethic he needs GG and SS credentials on his resume.