2013 MLB Predictions

There haven't been too many predictions posted, but most are not drinking the Oriole kool-ade.  the 2012 season was based on smoke and mirrors and 2013 should return find them in a scrum with the Yankees and Red Sox for a third place finish.   Bill James, the pioneer of sabermetrics retrospectively concluded this was an 82-80 team.  The 29-9 (.763) a Major League record for one run games is part of the magic.  The Orioles statistical position in relation to the rest of the league cements the unsustainable nature of the offense.  Their slashline position of Avg./OBP/SLG was 20th/23/11th.  The O's were 2nd in HRs, but 12th and 15th in Runs and RBIs.  With all those HRs came the expected Ks, and the Orioles were 6th in the majors in strikeouts while middle of the league (16) in BB.  More evidence of a fall is the Orioles won 18 of the 47 games that they did not have a single hit with a runner in scoring position, and won 14 of 32 games they had only a one hit with a runner in scoring position.  That is 32 wins and over .400 ball in 79 improbable winning situations.  Adam Jones had a career year, Mark Reynolds did not.  Reynolds is now gone along with the team leading 159 K, but he also take 23 Hrs, 65 runs and 69 RBIs with him.  Baltimore made no significant addition to an offense that finished in the middle. 

Oh, the Orioles were definitely a statistical anomaly last year.  There's also enough top-to-bottom talent in the AL East that the division could end up any number of ways.  Still though there are positive ways to look at it also:

1)  Jones technically had a "career year" but only by a hair.  His numbers went from .280-25-83 in 2011 to .287-32-82 in 2012.  Doubles were up and so were runs, but he's also 27 this year.  That's a pretty natural time to have your best seasons.  There's no reason to think he won't do it again.
2)  Markakis missed a third of a season and still went .298-15-54.  At 29 he should be back.
3)  Wieters is also hitting that key 26 year old season and he's looking better and better.  In 2013 he could be the best in the AL.
4)  They did lose the 23 HR and 69 RBIs from Reynolds but they have one of the hottest prospects around replacing him in Manny Machado.  In 1/3 of a season during his rookie year last year he hit .262-7-26...or almost exactly what Reynolds did with a better average and fewer strikeouts.
5)  Don't forget that their pitching staff was very young last year, but with another year of experience Matusz, Britton, Hunter and Arrieta could take a step.  Plus they'll most likely be adding Bundy at some point.  Plus Hammel and Tillman were pretty solid last year also.

It's a matter of momentum.  They feel like a team with key players just reaching their prime years, and they have some solid management.  If the pitching staff doesn't improve this year, Bundy isn't good when he makes it up, and Machado isn't what they think he'll be then they could definitely sink to the bottom of the division again, but there are a lot of positives there for the first time in 15 years. 

I actually think the Orioles are for real. I'm not saying they're gonna be a dominant team this year but I still say worst case scenerio they only lose 80 games. But my prediction is they win close to 89 games, in a tough division and tough AL loaded with good teams that may be enough to barely squeak out a WC.