Zack Greinke has a good day, too; he's a near-perfect comp for Cain
Zack Greinke should receive a deal in line with Matt Cain's $112.5-million, five-year extension, several baseball people said.
In the current environment Greinke is a $20-million-a-year pitcher (at least), and sources (not him) indicate he is well aware of this fact. His awareness is extra important for the moment, because Greinke hasn't yet selected am agent, though he says he will.
In the wake of Cain's deal, Greinke told Brewers writers, "I can't really get into if I think I compare to him, or if I don't think I compare to him.''
Brewers GM Doug Melvin said about a week ago that numbers hadn't yet been exchanged between Greinke and the team. But Melvin is realistic. Today he told Brewers writers, including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "Any signing impacts other players who haven't yet signed.''
I asked several impartial baseball people who aren't connected to Greinke whether he Cain is a fair "comp'' to him, and the answer was a resounding yes; he is in Cain's category, they said. Originally, I thought Greinke might need a nice year to prove he's in the class of Cain, but the numbers do suggest they are very close right now. And considering a poor early season by Greinke, Greinke might actually be a hair in front based on recent performance. Greinke got roughed up in 2005 to the tune of 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA.
Greinke is 76-73 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.26 WHIP overall in his career compared to a 69-73 record, 3.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP for Cain. But also consider that Greinke was in the American League for all but the 2011 season and played for losing teams in a majority of his seasons, and a case could be made he is actually ahead. The other big free-agent pitcher is Cole Hamels, who has the advantage of having a better record (74-54) and WHIP (1.14) than either of the other two top pitchers, and Hamels is also lefthanded, which doesn't hurt him, either.
There's that talk Greinke wouldn't be a fit for New York or Boston, which could affect his value on the free-agent market. But that's a bunch of bunk. Unless something changes, the Yankees don't seem to be in play for any huge free agent this winter; they have said they are determined to get their payroll below the luxury-tax threshhold of $189 million in 2014, so there probably wouldn't be room for any monster free agent.
There's talk, too, Greinke won't want to leave Milwaukee. But there was at least as much belief Cain didn't want to leave San Francisco. One thing about Greinke seems to be that he is intent on pitching for a winner; he wasn't certain the Nationals were ready to win so he rejected a chance to go to them and receive an extension that approached $100 million last winter in favor of the Brewers and no extension.
The Giants do have greater revenues than the Brewers, so that could be a small factor. But it isn't like Milwaukee doesn't have the money. They signed Ryan Braun to an extension that pays him $21 million a year, and they offered deals for at least $20 million a year to both Prince Fielder and CC Sabathia.
In the current environment Greinke is a $20-million-a-year pitcher (at least), and sources (not him) indicate he is well aware of this fact. His awareness is extra important for the moment, because Greinke hasn't yet selected am agent, though he says he will.
In the wake of Cain's deal, Greinke told Brewers writers, "I can't really get into if I think I compare to him, or if I don't think I compare to him.''
Brewers GM Doug Melvin said about a week ago that numbers hadn't yet been exchanged between Greinke and the team. But Melvin is realistic. Today he told Brewers writers, including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, "Any signing impacts other players who haven't yet signed.''
I asked several impartial baseball people who aren't connected to Greinke whether he Cain is a fair "comp'' to him, and the answer was a resounding yes; he is in Cain's category, they said. Originally, I thought Greinke might need a nice year to prove he's in the class of Cain, but the numbers do suggest they are very close right now. And considering a poor early season by Greinke, Greinke might actually be a hair in front based on recent performance. Greinke got roughed up in 2005 to the tune of 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA.
Greinke is 76-73 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.26 WHIP overall in his career compared to a 69-73 record, 3.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP for Cain. But also consider that Greinke was in the American League for all but the 2011 season and played for losing teams in a majority of his seasons, and a case could be made he is actually ahead. The other big free-agent pitcher is Cole Hamels, who has the advantage of having a better record (74-54) and WHIP (1.14) than either of the other two top pitchers, and Hamels is also lefthanded, which doesn't hurt him, either.
There's that talk Greinke wouldn't be a fit for New York or Boston, which could affect his value on the free-agent market. But that's a bunch of bunk. Unless something changes, the Yankees don't seem to be in play for any huge free agent this winter; they have said they are determined to get their payroll below the luxury-tax threshhold of $189 million in 2014, so there probably wouldn't be room for any monster free agent.
There's talk, too, Greinke won't want to leave Milwaukee. But there was at least as much belief Cain didn't want to leave San Francisco. One thing about Greinke seems to be that he is intent on pitching for a winner; he wasn't certain the Nationals were ready to win so he rejected a chance to go to them and receive an extension that approached $100 million last winter in favor of the Brewers and no extension.
The Giants do have greater revenues than the Brewers, so that could be a small factor. But it isn't like Milwaukee doesn't have the money. They signed Ryan Braun to an extension that pays him $21 million a year, and they offered deals for at least $20 million a year to both Prince Fielder and CC Sabathia.
