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Fantasy Baseball Today

Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and other players rumored to be on the move

By Scott White | Senior Fantasy Writer

Continuing with the trade deadline binge happening here on the Fantasy Baseball Today blog (since it's less than a week away and all), I thought I'd post this clip from Friday's show of CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman discussing some of the latest rumors. For baseball fans (and I assume most Fantasy owners fit into that category), it's interesting stuff.

Time didn't permit Al Melchior and I a chance to reflect on what Jon said, but I want to at least address one concern that seems to be making the rounds. To summarize, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez might be leaving Coors Field! Oh noes!

It's true they've performed better there than on the road over the course of their careers, as would be true for any hitter, but their road numbers in no way reveal the kind of hitters they'd be if they played their home games elsewhere. It's safe to assume their overall numbers would drop some in that scenario since Coors Field is such a favorable hitter's park, but it's also safe to assume their home and away splits would level off to some degree. A 162-game season has a way of neutralizing outlier performances. No matter how well a player does at a particular venue over a particular span of time, the correction seems to come somehow, some way. Coors Field allows for numbers so outrageously good that the road games end up serving as that correction.

It sounds too ethereal to be true, but just look at Ian Kinsler this year. Because he was just a .242 hitter on the road (compared to .304 at home) during the first eight years of his career, his move from Texas to Detroit this offseason had me worried. But he's having his best season in years, batting .293. That breaks down to .286 at home and, yup, .300 on the road.

And he's not the only example. Justin Upton hit .252 with a .670 OPS on the road in his final year with the Diamondbacks, and no one would complain about what he's done for Atlanta in nearly two seasons there. Matt Holliday had dramatic home-away splits during his early years with the Rockies but has remained a stud in St. Louis.

Like Jon said, the chances of Tulowitzki and Gonzalez being traded are minimal, but rest assured they'll put up big numbers no matter where they go.

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