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It could happen April 6. It could happen May 6. It could happen next Thursday, Columbus Day, 12 years from now or perhaps not at all.
It could be happening right now.
The truth is nobody knows when, or if, Masahiro Tanaka's torn elbow ligament is going to go, but when it does go, he's not pitching again for at least a full calendar year.
Normally, it would be a routine thing. Faced with such an injury, most pitchers would cut their losses and elect for Tommy John surgery, but by coming back late last year, Tanaka committed himself to a far less predictable course.
Show me what you got, musculoskeletal system.
The problem, of course, is that Fantasy Baseball is a game of predictions, and for Tanaka, the two most likely outcomes are polar opposites. He could be the best pitcher in baseball (he had a 2.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 16 starts before the elbow really began to bother him last year) or put up a fat goose egg for the season. You're drafting a glass cannon, basically. He either blows up or ... blows up.
Depending on your aversion to risk, you could reach for Tanaka inside the top 20 starting pitchers or pass him up outside the top 40. What clinches it for me is that in those two starts he made after returning last year, he wasn't the same. He was adequate in the first one but got blown out in the second and had reduced velocity in both. Just because he can pitch with the injury doesn't mean he should. A glass cannon is one thing, but a glass pistol sounds like too much risk for too little reward.
I'll let him blow up in someone else's face.
