For years and years and years, the AL East was all about the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. They were baseballâs two powerhouses and they were neck and neck each season. The Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, and Tampa Bay Devil Rays were just along for the ride.
Then, about a decade ago, the Rays dropped the Devil and became a perennial contender despite their shoestring budget. Soon thereafter the Orioles brought in the magic of Buck Showalter and became a team to be reckoned with. And two years ago, the Blue Jays got in on the fun thanks to a powerful offense led by Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson. Suddenly the AL East went from being a two-team race to a three- or four- or even five-team race.
Last summer the AL East was baseballâs only division with four 84-win teams -- only one other division had as many as three 84-win teams -- and it was the only division to send three teams to the postseason. The Red Sox won the division while the Blue Jays and Orioles met in the AL Wild Card Game. You remember how that went, right? Zach Britton sat and watched in the bullpen while this happened:
Four different AL East teams have won the division title in the last five seasons. The Red Sox (2013, 2016) are the only repeat winners and the Rays are the only team that failed to capture a division title. The days of the AL East being a race between the Yankees and Red Sox are long over. The Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rays are no longer doormats.
Here, in case you need a reminder, is how the division played out last season:
| | 2016 W-L Record | Run Differential | Expected W-L | Record in 1-Run Games |
Red Sox | 93-69 | +184 | 98-64 | 20-24 |
Blue Jays | 89-73 | +93 | 91-71 | 21-25 |
Orioles | 89-73 | +29 | 84-78 | 21-16 |
Yankees | 84-78 | -22 | 79-83 | 24-12 |
Rays | 68-94 | -41 | 77-85 | 13-27 |
The Red Sox lost David Ortiz to retirement but gained an ace in Chris Sale, who came over in a trade with the White Sox. Dave Dombrowski, the teamâs president of baseball operations, is not shy about spending money or trading prospects, and heâs done both over the last 18 months or so in an effort to bring Boston their fourth World Series championship since 2004.
The other four AL East clubs had more low key offseasons. The Yankees did sign Aroldis Chapman to the richest reliever contract in history, but otherwise theyâre sticking to the youth movement and going with kids. The Blue Jays were able to retain Bautista, though they lost Edwin Encarnacion. The Orioles kept Mark Trumbo but lost Matt Wieters. The Rays? Well, they continued their own unique brand of wheeling and dealing. They traded Logan Forsythe and Drew Smyly for young players to help replenish the pipeline.
Here is a look at how the completely objective computer simulations see the 2017 season playing out in the AL East:
| | SportsLine Proj. Wins | Westgate Over/Under | SportsLine Div. Odds | Westgate Div. Odds | SportsLine Playoff Odds |
Red Sox | 93.3 | 92.5 | 55.5% | 61.5% | 89.5% |
Blue Jays | 90.6 | 84.5 | 34.3% | 20.0% | 80.2% |
Orioles | 82.4 | 79.5 | 5.2% | 9.1% | 31.1% |
Yankees | 81.8 | 83.5 | 4.5% | 16.7% | 28.3% |
Rays | 73.9 | 78.5 | 0.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
Thanks to Sale and cornerstone young players like Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, the Red Sox will go into 2017 as AL East favorites once again. Theyâre also legitimate World Series contenders, though David Price and Drew Pomeranz are already dealing with some arm issues, and the clubâs rotation depth isnât great. The Red Sox look amazing on paper, though there may be some cracks in the foundation.
The Blue Jays are known for their offense, so they donât get enough credit for having a rotation five deep with quality starters. This isnât a club that has to try to cobble together five innings every fifth day. Theyâll run a quality starter out there every night, and with their offense, that gives them a chance to win every single game. Toronto is not just a home run hitting team. They can go toe to toe with anyone in a pitcherâs duel.
Neither the Orioles nor Yankees can say that. Theyâre both going to have to piece together their rotations all season long, just as they did a year ago. The Oâs lean on veteran stalwarts Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Manny Machado. Does Machado qualify as a veteran at this point? I think so. The Yankees are trying to build their next young core. Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, and Aaron Judge sure are a promising trio of bats.
Then there are the Rays, who, despite a terrible 2016 season -- they went 37-62 in their final 99 games last year -- still have enough pitching and power to put up a fight in 2017. Their hope this year is lefty Blake Snell and righty Jose De Leon will emerge as their next set of young stud starters. They seem to crank a new one of those guys out every year.
Now that weâve taken a look at the AL East overall, letâs dive in at the individual team level.
Baltimore Orioles
The Oâs will hit home runs this season, lots of âem, writes Matt Snyder. Will they hit enough to overcome their shaky rotation? They did last season, and theyâll have to do it again this year to return to the postseason. On the Fantasy side, Heath Cummings looked at Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, and whether theyâre ready to take the next step and become top tier starters.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox will unquestionably miss Big Papi, says Dayn Perry. Theyâre still plenty good enough to contend even without Ortiz, however, especially if Price returns from his elbow issue reasonably soon. For Fantasty, Cummings examined Rick Porcello, and the reigning Cy Young award winnerâs chances of repeating those efforts in 2017.
New York Yankees
Can the Yankees rebuild and contend at the same time? Thatâs what theyâre trying to do. Bird and Judge are both going to have to hit the ground running like Sanchez did last season for the Yankees to have a shot at the postseason. Veterans like Chapman, Matt Holliday, and Masahiro Tanaka are capable of providing nice support. Cummings looks at whether the Baby Bombers are viable Fantasy options for the 2017 season.
Tampa Bay Rays
R.J. Anderson wonders whether Chris Archer and Evan Longoria will find themselves on the trade block. The Rays have missed the postseason each of the last three years, and if they donât contend again in 2017, the club could tear it all down and try to rebuild from scratch. On the Fantasy side, Cummings wonders whether Brad Millerâs power surge is for real.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have a great rotation and a quality team defense, writes Matt Snyder. They did lose Encarnacion, but there is still enough thump in the lineup for Toronto to reach the postseason for the third consecutive season. What is the Fantasy upside of Marcus Stroman? Cummings attempts to answer that.
