Here is every MLB team's main goal for the stretch drive of the season
What does each team need to get done most of all between now and the end of the regular season?
September is in the offing, and that means we can say with full sanction that the stretch drive of the 2016 regular season is upon us. As such, we'll now use this space to lay out the thing that each team most needs to accomplish before the regular season ends.
We'll avoid plainly obvious goals like "win the division" or "make the playoffs." You may safely assume that that's the primary objective for teams of current relevance. Instead, we'll get a bit more specific. For the best teams, this will entail getting or keeping the roster in fighting shape as the inevitable spot in the postseason looms. For the less sure-footed contenders, the goal will be to achieve something in particular that advances the cause --- take advantage of an upcoming stretch of schedule, for instance, or get a core contributor back to vintage form via better health or improved performance. For the lesser remainder -- i.e., those teams not headed for the playoffs -- the goal will be more forward-looking, in most cases with an eye toward 2017 and beyond.
So without further throat-clearing, here's each team's leading goal for the stretch drive of the 2016 regular season ...
Los Angeles Angels:
See progress from Garrett Richards
Mike Trout does not a full roster make, as the Angels are acutely reminding us in 2016. As for 2017, they badly need ace Garrett Richards to avoid Tommy John surgery, He's gone the rest-and-treatment route, and thus far his torn UCL seems to be responding very positively. As Pedro Moura notes, though, the big test will come when Richards starts throwing with something approaching game intensity. That major checkpoint should come before the end of the season. If the ligament holds up, then the Angels may have their ace ready to go for the healthy majority of 2017. If it doesn't, then Tommy John is the likely next step, and that means no 2017 for Richards. It also would probably mean another squandered year of the best player in baseball.
Houston Astros:
Get production from A.J. Reed and Yulieski Gurriel
The Astros of course need a few things to happen if they're going to hawk down a playoff berth, but getting better production from first base and DH -- two bat-first positions/roles, it should be noted -- is high on the list. This season, Houston first basemen have combined to hit just .232/.297/.397, while the average major-league 1Ber in 2016 has a line of .258/.337/.454. Meantime, Astros DHs have been even worse: .204/.289/.336 on the year. On that front, Reed, now the Astros' regular first baseman, isn't hitting at all after his first 117 major-league plate appearances. However, he's widely regarded as the Astros' top prospect, so the expectation is that he'll hit after an adjustment period, just as Alex Bregman has done. Gurriel is a major league-ready, 32-year-old Cuban signee who's almost bound to improve upon what previous Houston DHs have done. If these two can hit, even a little bit, down the stretch, then the Astros will benefit from a nice marginal gain the rest of the way.
Oakland Athletics:
Get Sonny Gray back in time to finish on a positive note
Gray's on the DL with a forearm injury, but he should begin throwing soon. It's possible he'll make it back in time to make a handful of starts before season's end. Gray, who entered this season with a career ERA of 2.88 across parts of three seasons, has in 2016 pitched to a 5.74 ERA. That's a troubling development for a pitcher who once looked like one of the most promising young aces in baseball. The A's need him to get healthy and going into the offseason position himself as someone who's part of the future in Oakland or a tradable asset this winter.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Decide to what extent Aaron Sanchez will be a part of the rotation
Aaron Sanchez has been outstanding for the Jays this season, but because he's on pace to greatly exceed his previous career high in innings, the 24-year-old All-Star will see his workload limited the rest of the way. Right now, the plan is to go with a six-man rotation -- a strategy enabled by the waiver-period addition of Francisco Liriano. Initially, the Jays plan was to move Sanchez to the bullpen, but that changed, which suggests fluid thinking on the part of the front office. If the Jays don't lock down a playoff berth in the next couple of weeks, will they continue to limit Sanchez's starts or focus on putting the best team on the field? If they make the playoffs, will Sanchez be a part of the rotation or will he see high-leverage bullpen work in the postseason? How Sanchez looks and how the standings play out down the stretch will be determinative.
Atlanta Braves:
Finish up weak
The Braves are still in the midst of a "full gut rehab," and as such find themselves on pace for 103 losses in 2016. They're also on pace to secure the top overall draft pick in 2017 by virtue of their having the worst overall record in 2016. The SportsLine Projection System expects to finish with the worst record by a reasonably comfortable margin. The Braves picked third overall this year and of course added via trade Dansby Swanson, the top overall pick of the 2015 draft. So don't screw this up by going on a stretch-drive run, Atlanta.
Milwaukee Brewers:
Let the remaining schedule have its way with you
The Brewers are of course another team in rebuild mode, and they've pretty much traded off all their notable near-term assets. Now they're ready to focus on getting all these prospects to the highest level and work toward contending once again. First, though, they'll land a high draft pick in 2017. If the season ended right now, then the Brewers would pick eighth overall in the next draft, which comes on the heels of a fifth overall pick this year. The "good" news for Milwaukee is that the rest of the schedule is pretty tough, so they may be poised to improve their draft position down the stretch. Specifically, of their final 36 games, 27 come against the Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, and Rangers. It's in the Brewers' long-term interests for the losses to mount the rest of the way.
St. Louis Cardinals:
Ease off on Yadier Molina
Presently, Molina leads all catchers with 941 innings caught this season. In second place is Wilson Ramos, who's more than 50 innings behind Molina. This puts Molina on pace to catch 1,229 â innings in 2016, which would easily be a career high. So that's a lot, even by the standards of the St. Louis warhorse. And keep in mind this is a 34-year-old who ranks 28th all-time in games caught. Brayan Pena's been limited to just four games because of injuries, and he was supposed to be the Cardinals' frequenty used backup this season. Still, manager Mike Matheny badly needs to scale back Molina's usage down the stretch. In particular, he needs to get him out of the games in blowouts and rest him on occasionally for hot day games. If that means adding a third catcher to the active roster, then so be it. Otherwise, Molina risks breaking down or having his effectiveness greatly compromised.
Chicago Cubs:
Get the bullpen healthy
Thanks in part to some pre-deadline deals, the Cubs set themselves up to have a dominating bullpen in the postseason. By extension, that would lower the bar for their rotation in terms of going deep in playoff games. Elite high-velo bat-missers like Aroldis Chapman, Hector Rondon, and Pedro Strop make for a trio that's the envy of almost every team in baseball. The problem is that Rondon and Strop (and Joe Smith) are on the disabled list at present. Strop had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee and isn't expected back until the middle of September. Rondon, meantime, has a triceps injury but barring setback should return early in September. They'll need to get back, stay healthy, and flash vintage form before the playoffs begin. Triceps injuries can be tricky things for pitchers, and it's worth noting that Rondon reported a little tightness following a recent throwing session. Much of the Cubs' October blueprint involves these three hard-throwers -- Chapman, Strop, and Rondon -- locking down the middle and late innings on a regular basis. Consider two-third of that group to be question marks right now.
Arizona Diamondbacks:
Decide to clean house
Whether it's the disastrous Shelby Miller trade, the mis-evaluations of prospect value, the questionable dollars committed to Zack Greinke just in time for his decline phase, or fundamental misunderstandings of transaction rules, GM Dave Stewart has looked out of his depth thus far in Arizona. The same goes for chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, who's overseen and enabled all of this. It's time for ownership to pivot and populate the upper reaches of the front office with competent operators. The season's lost, so the firings can wait until after the World Series, but the decision needs to be made now.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
Get Clayton Kershaw back
At the time he went on the DL with a back injury, Kershaw was poised to run away with NL Cy Young and MVP awards. However, it's now been roughly two months since he's made a start. Recently, Kershaw completed a 40-pitch bullpen session without discomfort, so he's ready to take the next step in his recovery. The real test will come when he faces live hitters, but it's possible the Dodgers will get him back in time to make a start or three before the postseason begins. Assuming the Dodgers get there, perhaps Kershaw will be fresher than he's ever been that time of year because of the reduced workload. First, though, L.A. needs to get its ace of aces healthy.
San Francisco Giants:
Get someone in the rotation behind Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto to step up
San Fran starters not named Bumgarner or Cueto this season have registered a combined ERA of 4.88, which is, to put it charitably, sub-optimal. Jeff Samardzija's been excellent at times, but consistency has eluded him. Matt Moore still has stuff to dream on, if not the results. They'd seem to be the leading candidates to give the Giants' useful innings. After all, Bumgarner and Cueto are but half of a playoff rotation, and that's assuming the Giants get there. At this point, that's not even remotely a safe assumption.
Cleveland Indians:
Get Danny Salazar back to form
On June 29, Salazar tossed 7.0 scoreless frames against the Braves and in doing so lowered his 2016 ERA to 2.22. He was in the thick of the early AL Cy Young discussion. Over his next five starts, however, he worked just 24 innings and pitched to an ERA of 7.88. On Aug. 2, the day after Salazar was knocked around by the lowly Twins, the Indians placed him on the DL with elbow inflammation. At this writing, he's made two starts since returning from the DL and in those starts he's allowed nine runs in 5.0 innings while walking twice as many as he's struck out. Obviously, he's not right. The Indians have a hefty lead in the AL Central and as such are almost locks for the postseason. In matters related, the rotation has been a source of strength all year, but concerns are mounting with regard to Salazar. There's still time for another, more extended trip to the DL, and maybe that's in order if his elbow's going to be in fighting shape by October.
Seattle Mariners:
Get Felix Hernandez to keep ringing up strikeouts
King Felix for the early months of the season didn't quite look like himself. He kept runs off the board at a solid clip, but he was showing the worst command-and-control indicators of his career. Lately, though, he's looked a bit more like his old self. Over his last five starts, Hernandez has run a 2.88 ERA while striking out 9.9 batters per nine over that span. His 2016 numbers prior to those most recent five starts? A 3.45 ERA and a 6.89 K/9. The recent version of King Felix is the one the M's need if they're going to make the postseason.
Miami Marlins:
Get Ichiro hitting again
The Marlins remain in the thick of the NL wild card race, but they'll of course be without Giancarlo Stanton for the vast majority of the stretch drive and possible the entire remainder of 2016. Meantime, Ichiro, seeing regular duty in Stanton's absence, has come hurtling back to earth. Since Ichiro's 2016 OPS peaked at .944 on May 22, he's batted a rather meager .265/.340/.348. Since Stanton played his last game on Aug. 13 and Ichiro was pressed into regular starting duty, he's batted .179/.258/.286 while striking out seven times while drawing just two walks. Needless to say, that can't continue. If it does, then Don Mattingly might be reduced to giving regular duty to an Orlando Arcia-Jeff Francoeur platoon.
New York Mets:
Take advantage of a soft remaining schedule
While the Nationals likely have the easiest remaining schedule among contenders, the Mets have the easiest remaining schedule among contenders who aren't already heavy favorites to make the playoffs. Right now, they've got 36 games left on the schedule, and 22 of those will be against the Phillies, Braves, Reds, and Twins. On average, the Mets' remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .472, which is a figure that lends itself to making up ground in the wild card race. Thus far, the Mets in 2016 are just 27-28 against teams with losing records, so that needs to change in a hurry.
Washington Nationals:
Get Stephen Strasburg healthy
Strasburg, who was not so long ago signed to a $175 million contract extension, is on the DL with elbow soreness. That's troubling for a pitcher who's already undergone Tommy John surgery and how has a lot of scapular loading in his delivery. For the near-term, though, the Nationals will win the NL East barring a miraculous collpase, so they need Strasburg in fighting shape behind Max Scherzer. Before Strasburg's elbow began to fail him in the second half, he'd been at the forefront of the NL Cy Young discussion. That's no longer the case. As well, Joe Ross has been out since July 2 because of shoulder inflammation. He's working his way back, but the upcoming end of the minor-league season means he may not be able to go out on rehab assignment, which would mean he'd potentially need to round into form as a member of the Nats' bullpen. That adds a layer of uncertainty onto Ross' outlook and makes the need for a healthy Strasburg all the greater.
Baltimore Orioles:
Get Chris Tillman healthy
This isn't the most illuminating or nuanced way to frame things, but still: The Orioles this season are 20-6 when Tillman starts and one game under .500 when he doesn't. So it's concerning that Tillman is now on the DL with shoulder soreness after showing diminished performance and decreased velocity. While Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy figure to be useful, the Baltimore rotation badly needs Tillman for the bulk of the stretch. That's especially the case given the compressed and crowded AL East/AL wild card fray.
San Diego Padres:
Decide whether Wil Myers has a future in San Diego
Myers, the 25-year-old first baseman, has enjoyed a nifty 2016: .266/.343/.476 with 23 homers and 22 stolen bases. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, and that's why he's likely bound for a contract extension or a trade out of small-market San Diego. Padres GM A.J. Preller, with trades and international signings, has done a good job of undoing some of the damage he did to the organization leading up to the 2015 season, but the Padres' window for contention probably won't open for another couple of years. That's why trading Myers this offseason -- I'll again mention the weak upcoming free agent class as incentive for rebuilding teams with moveable peak-age talents -- may be in the organization's best long-term interest. It's a big decision, and the Padres can start thinking about now.
Philadelphia Phillies:
Get good news on Aaron Nola
The 23-year-old right-hander looked like a future ace for much of the season, but he was recently shut down for the remainder of 2016 with a partial tear of his UCL. That's scary stuff, obviously, but Nola and the Phillies are hoping that a regimen of rest and PRP injections will help Nola avoid surgery and be ready for spring training in 2017. Sometimes, though, that course still winds up leading to Tommy John surgery. Maybe before the regular season is done, the Phillies will get an early return on how Nola's doing. It's risky, in that a delayed surgery might wind up costing Nola all of 2017. He's very much vital to their rebuilding process.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
Get Andrew McCutchen's August numbers to stick
The Pirates' star and perennial MVP contender slumped badly in the middle of season. Heading into August, he was running an OBP of .311, which, needless to say, is uncharacteristic. In August, however, he's ramped up the production in a big way: .265/.405/.417 for the month. As well, he's drawn 14 unintentional walks against 13 strikeouts in August after drawing four unintentional walks against 25 strikeouts in July. That's an important positive trend. The Pirates are in the mix for a fourth straight trip to the playoffs, and McCutchen as a revived threat will help them get there.
Texas Rangers:
Keep Yu Darvish healthy
When healthy, Darvish is among the very best pitchers in all of baseball (he's struck out a remarkable 30.2 percent of opposing hitters for his career), but the problem is that he's often injured. Darvish is of course a veteran of Tommy John surgery, and he's also been on the DL four other times in his career for neck and shoulder problems. If the Rangers are going to fend off the Astros and Mariners in the AL West, then they'll need Darvish to answer the bell down the stretch. It goes without saying that a Cole Hamels-Darvish postseason rotation could help the cause greatly.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Have Chris Archer keep re-establishing his trade value
Archer was a deserving All-Star last season, and he wound up fifth in the AL Cy Young balloting. This year, though, the 27-year-old has on balance disappointed. Archer was supposed to front a loaded Tampa Bay rotation and perhaps fetch an impressive trade haul at the deadline. Instead, Archer in the first half of the season pitched to a 4.66 ERA and 2.71 K/BB ratio. In eight starts since the break, though, he's put up a 2.94 ERA and 6.20 K/BB. That's more like it, to say the least. If he keeps that up the rest of the way, then the Rays will be poised to get a hefty return for Archer should they decide to deal him this winter.
Boston Red Sox:
Take care of business head-to-head
Sure, we could point to the health of Andrew Benintendi or the uncharacteristic "merely solid" performance of David Price. Instead we will note the Sox opportunity to strike blows against their chief AL East rivals. The top of the AL East standings is muddled, of course, and in keeping with that general principle the Sox this season are a muddled 6-6 against the Orioles and 6-7 against the Blue Jays. Well, before the regular season ends, they'll get seven more cracks against Baltimore and six more against Toronto. That's more than 35 percent of the remaining schedule, and that's an opportunity for Boston to take care of business.
Cincinnati Reds:
Get some small reason for optimism out of Homer Bailey
Bailey's undergone Tommy John surgery and this year pitched to an ERA of 5.74. The fact that he's still owed a minimum of $68 million makes his one of the best untradable contracts in baseball. So he's very likely sticking in Cincy. On the upside, Bailey's put up a strong 3.86 K/BB ratio this season, and he's worked just 22 innings. Given a larger sample and given more distance between him and his surgery, better results seem likely. The stretch drive provides an opportunity for Bailey to show he can still pitch at the level that fetched him nine-figure extension.
Colorado Rockies:
Start shopping Carlos Gonzalez for the offseason
CarGo is in the midst of authoring a second straight healthy and productive season. He's chronically the subject of trade rumors, but this offseason the Rockies' front office needs to get it done. Gonzalez will be going into his age-31 season in 2017, and he'll at last be in the final year of his contract. Also, the upcoming free agent class is gallingly thin when it comes to impact bats (that's especially the case if Yoenis Cespedes decides against opting out of his Mets contract), which means the going rates for a player like Gonzalez will increase. The Rockies are assembling a base of young talent that should allow contention perhaps as soon as next season, but hanging to Gonzalez in light of his injury history and he gets deeper into his thirties is too risky. This winter will be the time to move him, and the rest of the 2016 season provides time to lay the groundwork for a deal.
Kansas City Royals:
Get the rotation to keep up their recent success
We've become accustomed to the Royals' winning despite subpar rotation. Their recent surge back into contention, however, has been driven by their starting pitching. Consider that when their recent hot streak began on Aug. 6, the KC rotation had a 4.88 ERA for the year. Since then, though, Royals starters have an ERA of less than 2.50. Sure, playing the White Sox and Twins 10 times in that span has helped, but the starting pitching's been much better in any context. Throw Wade Davis back into the bullpen mix soon, and Royals can make things even more interesting provided the rotation keeps it up.
Detroit Tigers:
Get Justin Upton to turn it around
For a while, it looked like Upton was snapping out of his early season funk. Overall, Upton's hitting an uncharacteristic .234/.288/.393, but a July line of .278/.320/.522 raised hopes that he was getting back to form. August, though, has seen another round of poor production, as Upton's batting .200/.257/.323 for the month. Detroit has legit designs on the postseason, but they'll need Upton -- a reliable source of right-handed power for almost his entire career -- to round into form in a hurry.
Minnesota Twins:
Decide whether interim GM Rob Antony is the right choice for the permanent job
Antony took over the GM job after Terry Ryan was dismissed earlier this season. Antony was on the job in time to steer the team through the non-waiver trade deadline, and he made a couple of moves on that front -- one of them wisely included flipping Eduardo Nunez. Otherwise, there's been little to go on. Working against Antony will be the fact that he's part of the old regime, the very one that's guided the Twins to their current state. As well, the Twins have hired outside help to assist in the GM search, and that would seem to bode ill for Antony's chances. Maybe he can make an impression at some point before the season ends.
Chicago White Sox:
Decide whether to try to contend in 2017
The White Sox didn't get it done this season despite another very active offseason. They may shoot for a playoff berth again in 2017, though, what with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, and Adam Eaton all under team control for next year (and beyond). However, Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie are each arb-eligible, and their catching tandem of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro hits the market. Some within the organization may press to sell off this winter. After all, this core hasn't gotten it done despite intent to compete in each of the last two seasons. The free agent market, one of the thinnest ever, provides little help, and this roster still has holes. It'll be tempting to think about flipping, say, Frazier and Lawrie and perhaps listen to offers on the two aces noted above. That said, having a core of Sale-Quintana-Abreu-Eaton makes taking another shot at it awfully tempting. The rest of 2016 provides time and additional info that should help make that decision.
New York Yankees:
Keep the youth movement going
The Yankees' are undertaking a pivot toward youth. GM Brian Cashman's outstanding work leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline improved the farm system by leaps and bounds, and some recent call-ups have generally impressed. Gary Sanchez has been a house afire at the plate since being summoned to the majors, and Aaron Judge has shown his power potential already. As well, the Yanks can continue to assess whether Tyler Austin has a future as a major-league regular. As for the expanded September roster, perhaps Luis Severino, who's still just 22, makes his way back the Bronx. Will Clint Frazier, whom the Yanks acquired from the Indians in the Andrew Miller deal and who may be the top prospect in the system, get the call? That seems unlikely, but it would certainly be compelling to see him make his big-league debut next month. Mostly, the Yanks need future cornerstones Sanchez and Judge to keep hitting, and for Severino, if summoned back, to show better secondary stuff. Those things have a lot of bearing on the Yankees' future.
















