Here's why Kyle Schwarber's injury could be trade season's biggest what-if rabbit hole
It's remarkable how many different scenarios change on one injury
By
Matt Snyder
•
5 min read
Considering young Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber has been ruled out for the season since a severe injury to his knee in Chicago's third game, we sure hear his name an awful lot, don't we?
It's not in an excuse-making capacity, either. The Cubs have found ways to survive and thrive without him.
Instead, it's in trade speculation. We've long heard reports that the Yankees covet Schwarber, and with the Cubs needing bullpen help, there have been connections for Andrew Miller or even both Miller and Aroldis Chapman.
The Cubs did make a trade for a lefty reliever on Wednesday and it was Mike Montgomery of the Mariners. Now, I'm not of the opinion that this means the Cubs are out on more bullpen help, and I also don't think there's a chance Schwarber will be traded (put me down for zero percent chance). It's just that we keep hearing about him. So ...
What if Schwarber didn't get injured?
Well, what if Schwarber avoided Dexter Fowler in center on that play back in Arizona and avoided injury? If that season-ending play never happened, we'd probably be looking at these two topics:
1. What if Schwarber was the wrecking crew this season so many thought he would be?
Let's say Schwarber right now has 22 homers and 65 RBI (he was set to be hitting behind Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, so he would have tons of RBI chances) with an OPS that was roughly 35 percent above league average. He had 16 homers and 43 RBI in just 69 games last season and five homers and eight RBI in nine postseason games. His regular-season OPS+ was 130. So this is a realistic scenario.
I think it's safe to say that the Cubs would be just about where they are in the standings.
Thus, is there any chance in the world that his name would be bandied about so wildly in trade rumors? We all know that answer to that question. Even if the Yankees were in love with him, we wouldn't be hearing about all of this. You don't hear rumors about someone like Rizzo for a reason.
There's a trickle-down effect to other teams, too. With no "they want Schwarber" buzz, someone else has to be the headliner in those juicy rumors pieces. Joey Gallo, maybe? Then he dominates the discussion and other teams wanting, say, Andrew Miller in a trade are balancing their potential offers with the Yankees' top target.
Other than the trade rumors, which ultimately don't really mean much to the on-field guys, there would have been a big effect on the Cubs organizational depth, too.
Rookie catcher Willson Contreras, for example, would probably still be stuck in the minors. Instead, he's hitting .291/.376/.515 with six doubles, five homers and 16 RBI in just 117 plate appearances.
Would we be hearing Contreras' name, obviously not nearly as highly coveted, in rumors instead of Schwarber? That would be my hunch, especially if Schwarber were catching once a week as planned and doing well at it.
I also don't think we'd have seen 22-year-old center fielder Albert Almora, who has had more than a few big moments for the Cubs this season. There almost certainly wouldn't have been the trade to re-acquire Chris Coghlan.
In the long run, I do think it's good for organizations to get glimpses of players like Contreras and Almora at the top level, because you can truly never know how a player will perform until he gets the chance. So from this lens, it's certainly the silver lining of Schwarber's injury.
Of course, there's the possibility -- albeit an unlikely one, in my opinion -- of ...
2. What if Schwarber had a bad sophomore slump?
It's not ridiculous to think that Schwarber would have had a down year, at least compared to the expectations of so many people who thought he was en route to automatically being a big-time, middle-of-the-order bat in 2016.
Let's remember that Schwarber had an otherworldly start (.352/.436/.625 through his first 27 games), but then struggled, with all but power and taking walks when being pitched around the rest of the way. In his last 42 games of the regular season, Schwarber hit .181/.308/.403 with 10 homers and 22 RBI. Again, the home run power was always there, and .308 isn't a terrible on-base percentage, but he only netted 14 singles and two doubles in those final 144 at-bats.
We have the luxury of having seen his outstanding postseason (.333/.419/.889), but the fact remains that down the stretch in August and September, he faltered. This is a guy who entered the season with just 273 career regular-season plate appearances and 31 postseason plate appearances.
So, yes, it's possible he'd be having a down year. In which case, how hot would his name be in trade rumors? Maybe he'd be discussed as a possibility, notably if he struggled badly behind the plate and in left field. In that case, we'd hear about how the Cubs have to deal him to get him to the AL (which we already do, albeit misguidedly).
In fact, the chatter might have been more interesting if this scenario were the case -- a discussion as to whether or not the Cubs should deal him or hold onto him amid his struggles, especially if he couldn't be counted on anywhere on defense and with the club having such great organizational depth in position players.
Even if Schwarber were bandied about in trade rumors, would he actually be the hot name the Yankees wanted in this scenario of him having a terrible season? It feels doubtful.
We also still might not have seen someone like Almora. Given his ridiculous offense in Triple-A, I think there's a distinct possibility Contreras would have been beckoned and then maybe there's a raging debate about "which one to keep and which one to trade," even if it would have been way premature and unnecessary.
The possibilities seem all over the board. Let this be a case that illustrates just how many dominoes can fall after an injury in sports, notably to a big name during the first week of a season.
