How the trade deadline has helped shape the NL wild card race in an unexpected way
The Marlins and Pirates looked like they were heading in opposite directions
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2 min read
Think back to August 2, the day after the trade deadline. Do you remember how you felt about the race for the National League's second wild card spot?
If not, here's a brief refresher: the Marlins were in sole possession of the position, and were some 2 1/2 games up on the Pirates. Truthfully, the gap between those teams felt wider. Whereas the Marlins had spent July adding pieces -- Andrew Cashner, Fernando Rodney, and a soon-returned Colin Rea being the most noteworthy -- the Pirates went the other direction. Mark Melancon was shipped out, and so were Francisco Liriano and Jonathon Niese. The juxtaposition was there for the making: the Marlins were a team taking their playoff odds seriously, the Pirates were not.
Three weeks later, boy, does that seem like an oversimplification. The quitting Pirates have since went 10-9, while the trying Fish sit at 8-10. Neither possesses the second wild card -- that honor instead belongs to the banged-up Cardinals, who, like the Dodgers, have defied expectations despite losing a number of key players to injury. Still, if doubting the Cardinals and making bold proclamations based on three weeks of data is your thing, then this one might be right down your alley: there's a chance the trade deadline determines who wins that wild card spot after all -- just not how we expected.
Consider that the Marlins have seen their trades backfire -- and not just by virtue of Rea's stay in the organization lasting a heartbeat more than three innings. Rodney has allowed 13 runs in 24 innings with the Fish, after allowing two runs in 28 innings with the Padres. Cashner has seen his ERA drop since joining the Marlins, but not as much as Miami would've liked -- and besides, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has dipped right along with it. Heck, Hunter Cervenka, an unheralded addition from the Braves, has also pitched worse for his new team than he did his old one.
The Pirates, meanwhile, have enjoyed the inverse of that effect, with all of their new player performing better than they had. Felipe Rivero has struck out 18 batters in 10 innings; Antonio Bastardo has maintained a shiny ERA despite ever-shaky peripherals; and Ivan Nova, sort of a punchline at the time, has 18 times more strikeouts than walks through four starts. Nova threw the fourth complete game of his career on Tuesday, all the while holding the Astros to a single run. Even the pitchers the Pirates have leaned on in place of Liriano and crew have seemingly risen to the occasion.
Whether those trends continue on both sides is anyone's guess. But their mere existence through the past three weeks has helped shape the wild card race. So what are the lessons here? Weird things happen in small samples; never count out the Cardinals, no matter how obvious their demise seems; and don't ever, ever presume you know what baseball has in store next -- because this game is more than willing to text you a picture of a handwritten note setting you straight.
