As of 12:01 a.m. ET Tuesday, MLB free agents are now able to negotiate and sign a contract with any team. The five-day exclusive negotiating period has ended. Free agents are truly free. The offseason has begun.
Of course, no free agents have signed yet, but that's not a surprise. There is no salary cap in baseball, unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL. In those other sports free agents rush to sign as soon as possible so they don't get left out in the cold once teams run out of cap space. No such problem exists in MLB.
With the offseason now underway, it's time to make some bold predictions for the months ahead. Last year I went 4 for 10 with my bold predictions, and hey, that's pretty good. I'll take a .400 average every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Here are this offseason's 10 bold predictions. Feel free to bookmark this post for future mocking purposes.
1. The upcoming CBA slows the hot stove down.
MLB and the MLB Players Association are currently negotiating baseball's next collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA expires Dec. 1. While I fully expect the two sides to get a deal done -- the game is very healthy financially and both sides stand to lose so much with a work stoppage -- I do think the hot stove will be put on hold until the new CBA is in place.
Simply put, teams are not going to make major decisions until they know exactly what they're getting into. The last time the CBA was up, the Phillies rushed to sign Jonathan Papelbon and forfeited their first-round pick. Then the new CBA took effect and said teams didn't have to forfeit draft picks to sign relievers that offseason. D'oh! The Phillies jumped the gun and forfeited a high pick for no reason.
No team is going to want to repeat that mistake. All the major decisions will wait until the new CBA is finalized, which means the hot stove will be put on hold until Dec. 1, or thereabouts. Sure, we'll see some trades and smaller free-agent signings before then, but the biggest deals will wait until after baseball's new CBA is done.
2. The Blue Jays re-sign either Encarnacion or Bautista ...
Both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are free agents, which means the Blue Jays stand to lose not only one of their iconic sluggers, but two. That would stink. I do think Toronto will open its wallet to re-sign one of the two, however. I expect it to be Encarnacion. He genuinely seems to love playing for the Blue Jays and might actually take a (slight) discount to stay. Bautista? He has already given the team one discount. Another isn't happening.
3. ... and the other lands in Boston.
Whichever slugger the Blue Jays don't sign will end up replacing David Ortiz with the Red Sox. And since I expect Encarnacion to re-sign with Toronto, I guess that means Bautista ends up in Boston.
As a dead pull right-handed hitter, Joey Bats would love, love, love taking aim at the Green Monster for 81 home games a year. Here is his 2016 spray chart from Rogers Centre superimposed on Fenway Park, via Baseball Savant:
Like I said, Bautista will love calling Fenway Park home, and the Red Sox will love having him. One way or the other, one of Bautista or Encarnacion ends up back in Toronto and the other winds up in Boston.
4. Desmond gets hung out to dry (again).
Last offseason Ian Desmond had to wait until late February to sign, and he had to take a one-year contract worth $8 million and agree to play the outfield. That was after turning down the $15.8 million qualifying offer from the Nationals.
Desmond had a strong but uneven season in Texas; he mashed in the first half and was a deserving All-Star before really limping to the finish line in the second half. He took to the outfield very well -- well enough that the Rangers tendered him a qualifying offer. This year that's worth a whopping $17.2 million.
I don't think the strong first half and nearly seamless transition to the outfield will be enough to convince teams Desmond is worth a) a big contract, and b) giving up a first-round pick. Assuming he rejects the qualifying offer, which seems likely, I think Desmond will be stuck waiting until February for a contract again.
5. The Indians trade Miller.
It sounds crazy, but there are very good reasons for the Indians to trade fan favorite and postseason hero Andrew Miller. For starters, they worked him hard in the postseason and Cleveland doesn't want to be left holding the bag when all those intense innings manifest themselves as a drop in production (or worse, an injury).
Secondly, Miller is making $9 million next season and Cody Allen is projected to make $7.7 million through arbitration, according to Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors. Spending $16.7 million on two relievers -- two great relievers, but two relievers nonetheless -- is not something a small-payroll team like the Indians can do. Not without skimping on other parts of the roster.
And third, Miller's value is as high as it's going to get right now, so the Indians have a chance to recoup most of the prospect value they traded away to get him. Cleveland needs a productive farm system to remain in contention long-term and it took a big bite out of its prospect depth at the deadline. Trading Miller replenishes the pipeline.
Now, I don't think the Indians want to trade Miller. I think they're going to be presented with an offer they simply can't refuse at some point. I'll say it comes from the Dodgers, who surprisingly would rather trade prospects for Miller than pay big to retain Kenley Jansen.
6. The Dodgers finally trade Puig.
I'm going back to the well here. One of my 10 bold predictions last year was a Yasiel Puig trade and I whiffed on that one. This year I feel more confident in it actually happening. (Hey, if I guess this every offseason, eventually I'll be right!) We know the Dodgers and Brewers discussed Puig (and stuff) for Ryan Braun at the deadline, and the two figure to revisit talks this offseason.
The Dodgers are pretty clearly done with Puig. They demoted him to the minors this past season, and when he did return, he was a platoon player. His production is slipping and he has a reputation for being a headache in the clubhouse. The Dodgers gave Puig a season with new manager Dave Roberts and it didn't come together, so now it's time to move on.
Milwaukee makes sense as a trade partner because Puig is still only 25 and the Brewers are in position to take a chance on a young guy with so much upside. They would also unload some salary by trading Braun. Either way, Brewers or elsewhere, I think Puig finally goes this offseason. He has worn out his welcome in Los Angeles.
7. The Braves make the biggest headlines.
The Braves are in the middle of a massive rebuild, but they're going to make more significant moves than any team this offseason. Why? Because SunTrust Park is opening next year and they want to be as competitive as possible. They don't want to open their new building with a 90-loss team.
I see Atlanta making the following moves.
- Trade for a top-flight starter. (They've already been connected to Chris Archer.)
- Trade for a catcher. (They've already been connected to Brian McCann.)
- Sign a free-agent starter. (Jason Hammel sure makes sense, no?)
- Sign a big bat. (Hmmm, how about Justin Turner at third?)
The Braves have money to spend and the prospects to trade. GM John Coppolella is going to do as much as possible to make the team respectable in 2017 without compromising their long-term future. Expect the Braves to be busy this winter. Very busy.
8. The A's make a trade that doesn't backfire horribly.
Gosh, has any team made more trades within the past few years that have flopped spectacularly than the Athletics? I can't think of one. Look at this list:
- Addison Russell, Billy McKinney and Dan Straily for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.
- Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Franklin Barreto and Sean Nolin.
- Drew Pomeranz and Jose Torres for Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski.
Egads. Making deals like that is how you go from 88 wins and a wild-card spot in 2014 to 187 total losses and consecutive top-six draft picks from 2015-16.
This offseason, I'll say the A's make a trade that actually works out in their favor, and substantially so. Sonny Gray is their top trade chip, but I think he's staying put for now. Instead, I'll go with a team really wanting a power-hitting infielder overpaying for Marcus Semien. How does the Mariners sound?
9. The Giants give Bumgarner a new contract.
Madison Bumgarner has one of the most team-friendly contracts in sports. The Giants paid him a mere $9.75 million in 2016 after paying him only $10.5 million from 2014-15. They'll pay him $11.5 million in 2017 before inevitably exercising their 2018 ($12 million) and 2019 ($12 million) club options. That's $55.75 million from 2014-19. Crazy.
Much like the Royals and Salvador Perez earlier this year, I expect the Giants to essentially rework Bumgarner's insanely team-friendly contract by signing him to a big extension. It's a show of good faith, basically. MadBum is the face of the franchise and San Francisco wants to keep him happy, and this is the best way to do it.
Yes, Bumgarner negotiated and signed his contract, so the Giants could very well hold him to it. No one forced MadBum to take his current deal, after all. I don't think the Giants are going to take that approach. They'll do the honorable thing and pay their ace a salary commensurate with his production. Something like four years and $130 million on top of the three years and $35.5 million left on his deal seems doable.
10. No free agent receives a nine-figure contract.
This free-agent class is so very thin. There are no ace-caliber starters and, outside of Justin Turner, no impact infielders available. There are a few great outfielders and several great relievers. That's it. You could argue one of those relievers is worth $100 million, but I don't see it.
Because of this, I'll say no free agent signs a nine-figure contract this offseason. Not one. It would be the first time that has happened since the winter of 2005-06. Yoenis Cespedes has the best chance at $100 million, I would say, but I think he'll end up just short of that. Say, four years and $98 million. For the first time in 11 years, we won't see a $100 million contract signed this winter.
