MLB Hot Stove: Each team's biggest question heading into the offseason
Who will replace Big Papi in Boston? Is Chris Sale on the market? Are the Yankees still going young?
By
Mike Axisa
•
14 min read
This past Friday, millions of fans gathered in Chicago to watch the World Series champion Cubs parade through the city following their first title in 108 years. It still doesn't seem real, does it? Well, it's real, and it's spectacular.
Now that the World Series is over and the Cubs have been crowned champs, we can now begin to look ahead to the offseason. A total of 139 players became free agents Thursday, and they'll be free to sign with new teams starting at 12:01 a.m. ET Tuesday. Let's look at the biggest question facing each team this offseason.
Arizona Diamondbacks
What direction will the new front office take? Last offseason the D-Backs went all in on 2016 by paying big to acquire Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, among others. It didn't work. Arizona went 69-93, which cost GM Dave Stewart and manager Chip Hale their jobs. They've since been replaced by Mike Hazen and Torey Lovullo. Now it's up to Hazen and his staff to determine whether the D-Backs need to continue pushing forward and try to win in 2017, or take a step back and rebuild. And if it's the latter, does that open the door for a Paul Goldschmidt trade?
Atlanta Braves
Where will they spend the money? The Braves are starting to see the fruits of their rebuild, as top prospect Dansby Swanson made his MLB debut in 2016, joining established big leaguers like Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran. The team is moving into brand new SunTrust Park next season, and they want to be as competitive as possible. It's no surprise then GM John Coppolella said they'll spend big in free agency.
We will have the money for major FA signings and we are planning to sign impactful players who can help us win. https://t.co/C1FYyw5vZp
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) September 13, 2016
That sounds like a wonderful plan, though this isn't the best free-agent class for spending big. There are few true impact players available, especially on the pitching side, where Atlanta needs a lot of help. Could the Braves perhaps use their money on take big contracts via trades instead?
Baltimore Orioles
How do they improve the rotation? The O's snuck into the postseason as the second wild-card team this past season even though their rotation had a 4.72 ERA, which ranked 24th among the 30 teams. That can't continue. The Chris Tillman-Kevin Gausman due is a good starting point, but the Orioles need better depth behind them. Ubaldo Jimenez and Yovani Gallardo can only help so much these days. This isn't a great offseason to need pitching. The free-agent class is thin and that means the trade market will be very competitive.
Boston Red Sox
How do they replace Big Papi? For the first time in 14 years, the Red Sox have to find themselves a new designated hitter. David Ortiz has retired, creating a big hole in the middle of the team's lineup. The BoSox did lead baseball in runs scored in 2016, so they have a little breathing room offensively, but of course they want to remain a powerhouse. They could stay internal with Pablo Sandoval returning, or they could spend for one of the big bats on the market (Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, etc.)
Chicago Cubs
OK, so now what? The Cubs just won the World Series and they look poised for an extended run of dominance. Their position player core is mostly locked up, and while there are some long-term concerns on the pitching staff (Jake Arrieta's impending free agency, Jon Lester's age, etc.), they're not enough to derail the Cubs entirely. The franchise is only in need of tweaks, not an overhaul. The Cubs just won 103 games and the World Series. Now comes the hard part. How do they get better?
Chicago White Sox
Is this the winter they trade Sale? The White Sox have been spinning their wheels for a few years now. They went 78-84 in 2016 and haven't been to the postseason since 2008. There was some animosity between Chris Sale and the front office this year, first because of the Drake LaRoche incident and then the jersey cutting incident. The White Sox could use an infusion of young talent. Given the thin free-agent pitching class, there might not be a better time to cash in Sale as a trade chip. He would be, by far, the best available starter, and every contender would have interest.
Cincinnati Reds
What is Mesoraco's status? The past two years have been very tough for catcher Devin Mesoraco, who has played only 39 total games due to shoulder and hip surgeries. The hope is he will be ready in time for Opening Day 2017. Mesoraco hit 25 homers as a full-time catcher in his last healthy season (2014) and he's only 28, so he can still be an impact player. He could either be the team's solution behind the plate, or a trade chip as part of their rebuild.
Cleveland Indians
How do they finish what they started? The Indians had a tremendous season. Sure, it ended in heartbreak, but Cleveland won 94 games and pushed the best team in baseball to extra innings in Game 7 of the World Series. The Indians did that without their best hitter (Michael Brantley) and second-best starter (Carlos Carrasco).
The Indians will have those two back next year and most of their core is locked up as well. The outfield is in need of an upgrade, especially defensively, otherwise the roster looks pretty good. Success can be fleeting for small payroll teams. The Indians want to win with this group as soon as possible.
Colorado Rockies
Will CarGo finally be traded? Carlos Gonzalez is no stranger to trade rumors. He has been mentioned as a trade candidate for years now. Next season is the final year of CarGo's contract and the Rockies presumably want to get young outfielder Raimel Tapia into the lineup along with David Dahl and Charlie Blackmon, so there's extra motivation to trade Gonzalez this winter. Coors Field calls his true production level into question, though the fact he's only signed one more year minimizes risk.
Detroit Tigers
How serious are they about a rebuild? Last month GM Al Avila said "changes are coming" to the way the Tigers do business, which seemed to indicate they're going to start a rebuild. Last week's Cameron Maybin salary dump trade was the first sign Avila & Co. mean business. Now, that said, trading Maybin is much different than trading big-name players like Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann and J.D. Martinez. If the Tigers are willing to go that far, they could bring in some serious young talent this winter.
Houston Astros
How do they take the next step? The Astros made the postseason in 2015 and looked ready to establish themselves as a bonafide World Series contender in 2016. Instead, they took a step back and missed the postseason by five games. Their starters aside from Lance McCullers Jr. don't miss bats, and the offense collectively strikes out a whole bunch. That's not necessarily a fatal flaw, but it is something that can be improved. An 84-win season had to be a disappointment for Houston this year. How do the Astros get back moving in the right direction?
Kansas City Royals
Is it time to break up the core? The Royals were the World Series champs just a year ago. Now they're facing an uncertain future. Eric Hosmer, Wade Davis, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Danny Duffy and Jarrod Dyson will all become free agents next offseason, and it's very unlikely Kansas City will be able to afford to keep them all. Do the Royals trade them this winter and begin a rebuild, or try to win one last time with this group?
Los Angeles Angels
How do they build a supporting cast around Trout? The clock is ticking. Mike Trout, the best and most valuable player in all of baseball, is now four years away from free agency. That's a long time away! The Angels lost 88 games in 2016 and their farm system is historically terrible, so there aren't many reasons to be optimistic about the club's immediate future.
The Angels insist they won't trade Trout and I totally get it. It's a heck of a lot easier to rebuild a farm system than it is to have the best player in the world at age 25. GM Billy Eppler has his work cut out for him. They have to win before Trout's free agency arrives, and that's a process that starts now.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Will the front office spend big for Jansen? It is not in president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman's nature to spend big on a reliever. He has never done it, even when he has had the opportunity and a clear need. Kenley Jansen is a free agent this winter, so that philosophy will be put to the test. Does Friedman go outside his comfort zone to retain Jansen, or does he move in another direction? Common sense says the Dodgers should re-sign Jansen given their deep pockets. That hasn't been Friedman's M.O., however.
Miami Marlins
How do they improve their rotation? It's uncomfortable to discuss, but it's a conversation the Marlins must have. What is the future of the rotation without Jose Fernandez? Miami needed rotation help even before Fernandez's untimely death. Adam Conley showed a lot of promise last season and both Wei-Yin Chen and Tom Koehler will be back, but then what? The farm system is pretty barren, so their options are free agency or trade MLB players for starting pitching.
Milwaukee Brewers
Will they trade Braun? Reports indicate the Brewers came close to trading Ryan Braun at the deadline, specifically to the Dodgers in a deal involving Yasiel Puig and Brandon McCarthy. It has been said the two sides will revisit the trade in the offseason. Braun is still very productive, though there are still four years and $80 million left on his contract, and that could be an obstacle.
Minnesota Twins
Where does the new front office go from here? After too many years of losing 90-plus games and making no meaningful changes, the Twins overhauled their front office this year, poaching Derek Falvey from the Indians and Thad Levine from the Rangers to run things.
The first order of business: bringing the franchise up to speed analytically. The Twins are sorely lacking in that department compared to the other 29 clubs. This offseason, Falvey and Levine will begin laying the groundwork for the next great Twins team. Will they be a pitching-and-defense team? An offense-first team? A scouting-and-development team? Big spenders? We'll find out this winter.
New York Mets
Should they splurge for Cespedes? For the second straight offseason, the Mets are facing the prospect of losing Yoenis Cespedes to free agency. They were able to re-sign him at a discount last year. It seems unlikely they'll be able to do it again. The Mets have outfielders! They picked up Jay Bruce's option, and he joins Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares and Michael Conforto on the roster. Cespedes is still an obvious upgrade though. But how would the roster work around him?
New York Yankees
How committed to the youth movement are they? For the first time in nearly three decades, the Yankees sold at the trade deadline. Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Carlos Beltran were traded for prospects, then the Yankees called up some youngsters in the second half. Will they stay on that path this winter and continue to get younger, or do they go back to their comfort zone and chase big names after missing the postseason for the third time in four years? For the first time in a long time, it seems the Yankees are truly dedicated to getting younger.
Oakland Athletics
What kind of offers will they receive for Gray? One year ago Sonny Gray was a Cy Young finalist with enormous trade value. Now he's coming off a substandard and injury-interrupted season. Teams are absolutely going to try to pry Gray loose while his value is down, hoping he returns to full strength next season. The A's should listen to offers, of course, but will any be worthwhile? Oakland has made some really regrettable trades in recent years. The trend has to stop with Gray.
Philadelphia Phillies
Is it time to make a splash in free agency? Here is the complete list of Phillies with contracts guaranteed for 2017: Matt Harrison and Pat Neshek. That's it. And Harrison is dealing with a potentially career-ending back injury. The Phillies have a ton of roster and payroll flexibility. This free-agent class isn't particularly deep, but Philadelphia has the money to sign, say, Yoenis Cespedes or Dexter Fowler. Or maybe Mark Trumbo for first base. Those guys are young enough that they can still be part of the core when all the prospects are ready, which the Phillies hope is sooner rather than later.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Will they seriously consider offers for McCutchen? There has been speculation the Pirates will entertain trade offers for Andrew McCutchen, the face of the franchise, following his uncharacteristically mediocre 2016 season. McCutchen is two years from free agency, though Pittsburgh will soon have top prospect Austin Meadows ready to step into the outfield alongside Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco. A year ago, the thought of trading McCutchen was insanity. Now it makes sense to listen, at least.
San Diego Padres
How damaged is Preller's reputation? In mid-September, MLB made the nearly unprecedented decision to suspend Padres GM A.J. Preller for what amounted to unethical practices. In a nutshell, the Padres kept medical information about their players from prospective trade partners. Preller was suspended 30 days and his reputation took a hit.
How will other teams approach trades with the Padres now? Does Preller have to earn back their trust? Or will other clubs not care knowing MLB has their back based on the suspension? Preller might be persona non grata, at least initially.
San Francisco Giants
How will they fix the bullpen? The Giants had a lot of bullpen issues in 2016 and their season fittingly ended with a dumpster fire of a ninth inning against the Cubs in Game 4 of the NLDS. There are several big-time closers in free agency this winter (Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon) and San Francisco seems poised to sign at least one. Chances are their efforts to fix the bullpen will go beyond signing one reliever, though.
Seattle Mariners
Will they finally find the missing piece(s)? The Mariners have baseball's longest postseason drought -- they haven't been to the playoffs since 2001 -- and they've spent a lot of money on players like Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz trying to get back to October. Seattle missed the postseason by three games this season and guys like Cano and Cruz and Felix Hernandez aren't getting any younger. The window to win with this group is as open as it's going to get. It's time to get over the hump.
St. Louis Cardinals
How will the rotation shake out? The Cardinals have a lot of starters but not a lot of pitching. Know what I mean? Carlos Martinez has emerged as a bonafide ace but the rest of the rotation really struggled this past season. That includes Adam Wainwright (4.62 ERA), Jaime Garcia (4.67 ERA), Mike Leake (4.69 ERA) and Michael Wacha (5.09 ERA). All five of those guys are returning, as are youngsters Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver along with Lance Lynn. He's returning from Tommy John surgery. Who's in, who's out, who gives them the best chance to win? That's something the Cardinals will have to figure out this winter.
Tampa Bay Rays
Which starting pitcher gets moved? This feels inevitable. The free-agent pitching market is thin, which means trades are going to be popular, and the Rays are poised to take advantage. They dealt Matt Moore at the deadline and still have the depth to trade someone else, like Jake Odorizzi or Alex Cobb, or maybe even Chris Archer. Tampa is very open-minded. The Rays will do whatever they think is best for the franchise long-term.
Texas Rangers
What will it take to sign Darvish long-term? When Yu Darvish returned from Tommy John surgery this past season, he looked very much like the Yu Darvish of old. A little rusty, but that was to be expected. Darvish will become a free agent following the 2017 season, and it would behoove the Rangers to open contract extension talks this offseason. They don't want to get into a bidding war next winter, especially once Darvish shows he is 100 percent back to normal following elbow reconstruction. Now's the time to get a deal done.
Toronto Blue Jays
What happens with Bautista and Encarnacion? Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, two fan favorites and two very productive players, are free agents this winter. There are reasons to keep them and reasons to let them walk. Generally speaking, signing players to big-money contracts in their mid-30s is a mistake. At the same time, how do you replace all that offense? This is a critical offseason for the Blue Jays. They could potentially lose two franchise cornerstone players.
Washington Nationals
What will they do behind the plate? Wilson Ramos is a free agent and that was always going to be the case. The difference now is that he's hurt, having torn his ACL late in the season. Even if the Nationals re-sign Ramos, they won't be able to count on him being healthy on Opening Day. Catcher is a pretty important position, obviously. You want to have depth back there. Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino should not be Plan A behind the plate for a contending team. Washington figures to be very involved in the catcher market this winter.
