The biggest first-half surprises and disappointments in all six MLB divisions
Where did Steven Wright and Aledmys Diaz come from? What happened to the Rays' and Pirates' rotations?
By
Mike Axisa
•
10 min read
On Tuesday, baseball's best players will convene in San Diego for the 2016 MLB All-Star Game with World Series home-field advantage is on the line. The AL has won the past three All-Star Games and is 15-4-1 in the past 20 All-Star Games overall. It has been a one-sided rivalry for sure.
After the All-Star Game we'll all shift our focus to the upcoming trade deadline and the second half in general, but before we do that, let's look back at the first half of the 2016 season. Here are the biggest surprises and disappointments to come out of each division so far this year. Sometimes it's an individual player, sometimes it's a collection of players. Let's dive in.
AL East
Surprise: Steven Wright, Red Sox. So who had the knuckleballer leading the AL with a 2.68 ERA at the All-Star break? No one. Wright, 31, also leads the AL with three complete games. He has been a revelation for a Red Sox team that is still in need of rotation help. David Price did not have a great first half, and others like Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez have been flat-out bad. Wright has been manager John Farrell's rock. He's the guy he can count on for a quality outing every fifth day.
Disappointment: The Rays' rotation. Despite their annual shoestring budget, the Rays have won 741 games since 2008, sixth most in baseball. Only the Yankees (779), Cardinals (774), Dodgers (756), Angels (750) and Rangers (745) have won more. They've done that largely thanks to their typically strong rotation. Tampa's starters have a 3.82 ERA since 2008, best in the AL and fourth best in all of baseball.
This year though, Rays starters have a 4.46 ERA, which ranks 16th out of the 30 clubs. The team's young foursome of Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore and Drew Smyly have combined for a 4.75 ERA in 424 innings. Yikes. They were supposed to be the backbone of the team. The Rays lost 22 of 25 games to close out the first half and are in last place largely because their rotation has been uncharacteristically bad.
NL East
Surprise: Daniel Murphy, Nationals. I don't think anyone saw this coming. Not even after Murphy's historic postseason last year. If they had, Murphy would have received much more than a three-year free-agent contract worth $37.5 million over the winter. So far this season he has been one of the best hitters in baseball, putting up a .348/.387/.598 (154 OPS+) batting line with a career-high 17 homers. He also leads the league in hits (117) and total bases (201).
On top of that, Murphy has absolutely tormented his former team. He went 22 for 52 (.423) with seven home runs and 21 RBI in 13 games against the Mets in the first half.
Murphy was a rock-solid hitter for the Mets for a very long time. He took his game to another level last fall with the help of hitting coach Kevin Long, who has a history of helping left-handed hitters tap into their power potential. (He did it with Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson while with the Yankees.) Murphy has taken those lessons to Washington and is now one of the game's premier offensive forces.
Disappointment: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins. This may sound silly given his stunning Home Run Derby performance Monday night, but Stanton did not have a great first half. He would be the first to admit that. He was good, hitting .233/.328/.495 (119 OPS+) with 20 homers in 76 games, but an extended slump landed him on the bench numerous times in favor of Ichiro Suzuki.
From May 7 to June 15, Stanton went 12 for 102 (.118) with two homers and 48 strikeouts in 29 games. At one point he went 1 for 21 (.048) with 17 strikeouts. Stanton is on pace to have his worst season since his rookie year, and with the Marlins currently tied with the Mets for the second wild-card spot, it's not unfair to assume they would own that spot outright if Stanton had a typical Stanton first half. He's 26 years old and in the prime of his career. Surely the Marlins were expecting a little more this year.
AL Central
Surprise: The Indians' outfield. The Indians opened the season with their entire starting outfield out of action. Left fielder Michael Brantley was out following offseason shoulder surgery, center fielder Abraham Almonte had been suspended 80 games for failing a performance-enhancing drug test and right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall suffered a wrist injury in spring training. It was a recipe for disaster.
Instead, Cleveland has had one of the most productive outfields in baseball, one with a collective .294/.348/.474 (116 OPS+) batting line. Only the Marlins (129 OPS+) and Red Sox (124 OPS+) have gotten more offense from their outfield. Only the Cubs (+11.1 WAR), Red Sox (+8.0), Marlins (+7.6), Angels (+7.4) and Rangers (+7.3) have gotten more all-around production from their outfield than the Indians (+7.2). That's with Brantley being limited to only 11 games too.
How have the Indians done it? By getting strong production from fill-ins Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin, first and foremost. Ramirez, an infielder by trade, has seen plenty of action in left and is hitting .295 with a 98 OPS+. Naquin won the center field job in camp and has swatted nine homers with a 148 OPS+ in 54 games. Chisenhall returned from his injury to hit .299 with a 108 OPS+. Rajai Davis (94 OPS+) has helped as well. The outfield could have been a disaster for Cleveland. Instead, it has been a strength.
Disappointment: Yordano Ventura, Royals. This is Ventura's third full big-league season and the hope was this would be the year he put it all together and turn his electric arm into ace-caliber production. It hasn't happened. Not even close. Ventura has a 5.15 ERA (87 ERA+) in 17 starts and 94 1/3 innings, and both his walk (3.8 BB/9) and strikeout (6.6 K/9) rates are career worsts. So is his homer rate (1.2 HR/9).
To be fair, Ventura has thrown a lot of intense innings the past few years thanks to Kansas City's two World Series runs. It's possible all that extra work is taking its toll on Ventura now. He wouldn't be the first young starter to deal with something like that. Still, the Royals came into the season with plans to repeat as World Series champs, and part of that plan was Ventura taking a step forward. It hasn't happened. He has taken a step back.
NL Central
Surprise: Aledmys Diaz, Cardinals. I don't know how the Cardinals do it, but they seem to do it every year. They lose a key player to injury and it looks like the injury will be too much to overcome, then all of a sudden they call up some minor leaguer who plays better than anyone could have reasonably hoped. It's uncanny.
This year Jhonny Peralta played the role of injured veteran and Aledmys Diaz played the role of random minor leaguer. Well, that's not fair, St. Louis gave Diaz a four-year deal worth $8 million two years ago, so it's not like he was a total unknown. The Cardinals did designate him for assignment last season though, so any other team could have claimed him off waivers. They all passed.
Now, Diaz is an All-Star who hit .315/.380/.536 (141 OPS+) with 22 doubles and 13 home runs in the first half. He has played so well that the Cardinals moved Peralta to third base, Matt Carpenter to second base, and Kolten Wong to the outfield to keep Diaz in the lineup. Yawn. Just the Cardinals doing Cardinals things.
Disappointment: The Pirates' rotation. The Pirates returned to prominence in 2013-15 thanks largely to their consistently strong rotation. Their starting staff ranked fourth among the 30 teams with a 3.54 ERA those three years, and their 51.5 percent ground ball rate was by far the best in baseball. The Dodgers were second at 48.9 percent. That was the plan. Get grounders and position infielders properly.
That plan has not worked this season. Pittsburgh's rotation has a 4.83 ERA, 23rd best in baseball, and their 46.9 ground ball rate is merely 11th best in baseball. Gerrit Cole has been outstanding, throwing 68 1/3 innings with a 2.77 ERA (148 ERA+). He has also on the DL with a triceps issue. Look at the team's other veteran hurlers:
| IP | ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | FIP | WAR | |
| Jonathon Niese | 101 2/3 | 5.13 | 80 | 1.57 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| Jeff Locke | 101 | 5.26 | 78 | 1.42 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
| Francisco Liriano | 92 2/3 | 5.15 | 80 | 1.62 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
That is 295 1/3 innings for replacement-level production. Yes, Cole and highly touted youngster Jameson Taillon are due back soon, plus top prospect Tyler Glasnow just made his debut last week, but the damage has already been done. Niese, Locke and Liriano cost the Pirates a lot of games in the first half and are a big reason why they're 1 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot. As with the Rays, Pittsburgh's typically excellent rotation has become a weakness.
AL West
Surprise: Ian Desmond, Rangers. Remember when Desmond couldn't find a job over the winter? He had a to settle for a one-year deal worth $8 million after turning down a $15.8 million qualifying offer. Not only that, he had to change positions too. Desmond's deal with Texas was contingent on him agreeing to move from shortstop to left field full-time.
It's hard to imagine the transition working out any better. Desmond is having the best offensive season of his career, hitting .322/.375/.524 (131 OPS+) with 22 doubles and 15 homers in 89 games. He has also cut his strikeout rate from 28.7 percent from 2014-15 to a more manageable 24.5 percent this year. On top of that, Desmond took to the outfield so well that he's now the team's everyday center fielder, and doing things like this:
Desmond is never going to play the infield again. The transition to the outfield has worked too well to mess with a good thing. Only the peerless Mike Trout (+5.6 WAR) and Mookie Betts (+4.1) have been better than Desmond (+3.9) among full-time outfielders this season.
Disappointment: Sonny Gray, Athletics. A year ago Gray finished third in the AL Cy Young voting by going 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA (145 ERA+) in 31 starts and 208 innings. This year he has the seventh-highest ERA (5.16) among the 45 AL pitchers to throw at least 90 innings. Gray's trademark control has taken a step back -- he has a career-high 3.4 BB/9 and leads MLB with 13 wild pitches -- with a career high in hits (9.8 H/9) and homers (1.2 HR/9) allowed per nine innings. He's making more mistakes over the plate.
To be fair, Gray dealt with a back problem earlier this year, which could certainly explain the control issues. That said, he only missed two starts, so it wasn't a long-term problem. The A's weren't expected to contend this year, so it's not like Gray's poor performance has hurt their postseason odds. There was talk about Gray being on the trade block though. Now his value is down, so the team would be wise to hang onto him rather than sell low.
NL West
Surprise: Jake Lamb, Diamondbacks. This was a tough one! A case can be made Wil Myers and Drew Pomeranz of the Padres belong here, though with them the All-Star talent was always there. It was just a question of health, and both have been healthy this year. Rockies shortstop Trevor Story has an argument for being the NL West surprise too, though he has always had big power, so his performance isn't a total shock.
I'll instead go with Lamb, who was a good prospect who has become a great power hitter in his first full MLB season. He hit .263/.331/.386 (93 OPS+) with six homers in 107 games with Arizona last year. So far this year Lamb has hit .291/.371/.612 (152 OPS+) with 20 homers in 86 games. Only Red Sox DH David Ortiz (.682!) has a higher slugging percentage among qualified hitters.
There is a tangible explanation for Lamb's power outburst. As August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs detailed, Lamb has retooled his swing by lowering his hands and incorporating a bigger leg kick. It's similar to the adjustments Jose Bautista and J.D. Martinez made in recent years, when they exploded onto the scene as elite power hitters. One year after slugging .386, Lamb is now in that elite slugger conversation too.
Disappointment: Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks. Not even the harshest Shelby Miller critics could have seen this coming. Last year Miller was a deserving All-Star who threw 205 1/3 innings of 3.02 ERA (127 ERA+) ball. His MLB-high 17 losses had more to do with the awful team the Braves put around him than Miller's performance.
Arizona gave up a stunning package to acquire Miller over the winter, but that's not his fault. It shouldn't have changed expectations. Either way, Miller owns a 7.14 ERA (61 ERA+) in 69 1/3 innings this season, and he has posted career-worst rates across the board: 11.3 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 6.5 HR/9. He has been fighting a weird mechanical flaw that has caused him to bang his hand on the mound during his follow-through:
See the dirt kick up off the mound? That's his hand hitting. That weird flaw landed Miller on the DL with a finger injury for about a month. Since returning from the DL, Miller has allowed 19 runs in 23 2/3 innings.
Arizona paid for an ace and that's the team's mistake. Miller hasn't profiled as an ace in a while. Instead, the D-Backs ended up with one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
