The Red Sox dramatic comeback win over the Mariners, in graph form
The Red Sox stormed back to erase a five-run deficit in the ninth inning on Thursday night. Here's how small their chances of winning were.
For the 11th (!) time this season, the Red Sox were walk-off winners on Thursday. It wasn't a regular ol' walk-off win though. They were down 7-1 at one point and 7-2 heading into the ninth. A spectacular bullpen meltdown by the Mariners (six runs in 1/3 of an inning) made it all possible.
Here's what the crazy comeback looks like in graph form:
That graph shows the win expectancy -- the percent change of winning, simply -- for the Red Sox at the end of each plate appearance in the game. When Kendrys Morales singled to leadoff the top of the ninth, Boston had a 0.6 percent change to win. Not six percent, 0.6 percent. That's one out of 166, more or less. This was the one.
And just because graphs are mostly boring, here's the video of Daniel Nava's walk-off wall-banger (technically a single):
This is the kind of game the 2012 Red Sox lose because they packed it in sometime around the sixth inning.