These five players could benefit most in the AL MVP race from Mike Trout's injury
Mike Trout will miss up to two months with a thumb injury. Who are the top AL MVP candidates now?
By
Mike Axisa
•
4 min read
The Angels and the entire world of baseball were dealt a blow Sunday when Mike Trout, the sport's best player, suffered a thumb injury sliding into second base. He'll have surgery to repair a ligament and could miss up to two months. That bites so much. Baseball is better when Mike Trout is doing Mike Trout things.
The 2017 regular season is still young -- only a handful of teams have played their 50th game already -- though Trout was already starting to separate himself from the rest of the pack in the AL MVP race. Check out the MLB WAR leaderboard:
- Mike Trout, Angels: +3.5 WAR
- Ervin Santana, Twins: +3.0 WAR
- Mike Leake, Cardinals: +3.0 WAR
- Aaron Judge, Yankees: +2.9 WAR
- Corey Dickerson, Rays: +2.7 WAR
- Chris Sale, Red Sox: +2.7 WAR
- Zack Cozart, Reds: +2.7 WAR
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies: +2.7 WAR
- Bryce Harper, Nationals: +2.6 WAR
- Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: +2.6 WAR
How you know it's still early in the season: Santana, Leake, and Cozart have been three of the 10 best players in baseball, by WAR. No disrespect to those guys, they've had phenomenal seasons to date, but they also have long track records of not being this good. It's fair to wonder how much longer we'll see them in the top 10.
Trout's surgery, which from what I understand is a fairly straightforward procedure with an extremely high success rate, will sideline him the next two months and take a bite out of his AL MVP case. I wouldn't be surprised if Trout finishes in the top 10 in the AL in WAR at the end of the season anyway, but the combination of missing two months and the Angels being out of the race likely means voters will look elsewhere for MVP.
WAR is, of course, an imperfect measure. It's a good idea, trying to combine everything a player contributes into one eamber, but the methodology is a work in progress. Almost all awards voters will glance at the WAR leaderboard before casting their vote, but will consider a wide range of other factors before making final decisions. The same will happen this year. So, with that in mind, here are five players with the most to gain in the MVP race now that Trout is injured.
Mookie Betts was the runner-up to Trout in last year's AL MVP race, and while he's having a very good season to date, he hasn't been quite as good as he was a year ago. I think it's only a matter of time until he heats up though. Betts is probably the closest thing to Trout in terms of all-around ability, and assuming the Red Sox stay in the race all year, Mookie is going to get a ton of MVP support once again.
Astros shortstop Carlos Correa is the best player on baseball's best team, which makes him a lock for a boatload of MVP votes. It's hard to believe he started the season sort of slowly given where he is right now. He's been a monster in May thus far:
Carlos Correa in April: .233/.309/.349
— Jake Kaplan (@jakemkaplan) May 30, 2017
Carlos Correa in May: .385/.457/.670
Yeah, that'll do it. There's no reason to think the Astros will fall out of the race, and no reason to think Correa will be something less than excellent the rest of the season. He, moreso than any other player, stands to benefit from Trout's injury in the MVP race. Being the best player on the best team is a great way to get MVP love.
There has long been a bias against designated hitters in the MVP voting, though Dickerson has played enough outfield (22 games) that all his time at DH (28 games) shouldn't sabotage his candidacy. That said, he's going to have to mash all year, and right now he's doing exactly that. Dickerson probably faces the largest uphill climb among players in this post because the offensive bar is quite high for a DH, and because the Rays have to get back in the race.
If the season ended today, Judge would do what Corey Seager did last season, meaning win Rookie of the Year unanimously and finish in the top three of the MVP voting. He's been that good, and he's shown so signs of slowing down either. (Judge hit his 16th home run Sunday and his 17th home run Monday.) The Yankees are somewhat surprisingly atop the AL East at the moment too. They don't have to win the division for Judge to get a healthy amount of MVP votes. They just have to stay in the race. And Judge has to keep playing like he has, of course.
Can you quietly put up a 169 OPS+ with 12 homers in 46 games? I'm pretty sure Twins third baseman Miguel Sano is evidence you can. He's been a beast for surprisingly competitive Minnesota club that is currently in first place in the AL Central. Will they stay there all season? Eh, I don't think so because the Indians are so good, though similar to Judge, Sano only needs the Twins to hang around the race to get MVP love.
My guess is Sale would get a ton of MVP votes right now as well, though history has shown a clear bias against pitchers during MVP votes. So many voters still see it as a position player's award, fair or not. Other pitchers like Santana, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Carlos Carrasco would get some MVP support as well if the season ended today, which is doesn't, of course.
The Trout injury really stinks, and it does change the AL MVP race landscape somewhat. Only two position players, Gabby Hartnett in 1935 and Mike Schmidt in 1980, won an MVP while playing in fewer than 120 games during a non-work stoppage season (Hartnett played 116 games, Schmidt 117). There are so many great players in the AL right now that I have a hard time thinking Trout will be able to accomplish that feat this year. Guys like Correa, Judge, Betts, Sano, and Dickerson stand to gain the most MVP support from Trout's injury.
