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MLB Top 10s: 'On pace to' list: Cabrera, we get; but 63 saves for Mo?

by Dayn Perry | Baseball Blogger

May 21, 2013 9:27 AM ET

In the Eye On Baseball MLB Top 10s, here's what we do: rank players according to criteria. Those criteria change depending upon week and whim, but the Top 10s will always be informed by some angle or another. (Note that the absence of an angle is itself an angle!)

And that brings us to this week's guiding query: Which current individual paces are most worth your attention moving forward?

First, let's note this week's MLB Top 10s can be safely classified as "happy, stupid time." That's because, as just noted, we're talking about paces -- as in "on pace to" and all that stuff. To be sure, taking early season totals and projecting them over the full complement of games can lead to a hootenanny of nonsense.

For instance, below I'm going to note Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is on pace for 181 RBI in 2013. He's on pace for 181 RBI because so far he's having a better season, on rate basis, than he did in his MVP/Triple Crown campaign of 2012. With that said, Cabrera, great as he is, is almost certainly not going to tally 181 RBI this year. But since he's on pace for that number, he and that number will -- spoiler alert! -- make the list to come.

The takeaway? Don't take what follows all that seriously. We're paying heed to some excellent (and, in some cases, very bad) starts and wish-casting about what kind of history the player in question would make if he keeps it up. I do all of this while being fully aware most of these paces are extreme long shots. If you complain about this after being sufficiently warned otherwise, then know you risk harming the unimpeachable reputation of anonymous Internet commenters.

Anyhow, players and their 2013 paces -- that's what we're about today. These paces have little chance of being realized, but for the next five minutes, let us not give a crap about that.

So let us now recite baseball names for purposes of SEO and making you angry. As always, feel free to brandish your incorrect opinions and make idle threats in the comments section.

Batters
1. Miguel Cabrera, 3B - Detroit Tigers
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 1
	Where to begin with the reigning AL MVP? As far as paces go, he's got a number of them. He's on target for 181 RBI (would be the highest total since Hank Greenberg's 183 in 1937), 258 hits (would put him within spitting distance of Ichiro's all-time single-season record of 262) and 435 total bases (would be highest total since Jimmie Foxx's 438 in 1932). Let it also be noted Cabrera leads the AL in batting average and RBI and is just one off the pace in home runs. In other words, a second straight Triple Crown is in play, at least at this semi-early juncture. So he's having a somewhat good season so far.
Key Stats: 177 AB, 12 HR, .384 AVG, 49 RBI, 35 R, 1 SB
2. Manny Machado, 3B - Baltimore Orioles
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 21
	What with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper (understandably) sucking the oxygen out of the room, it's easy to overlook Machado. You shouldn't. This season, the 20-year-old is on pace for an incredible 66 doubles. That would be one shy of Earl Webb's all-time record, set in 1931. Machado's would also be the first 60-double season since Charlie Gehringer's in 1936. What a player the Orioles have.
Key Stats: 195 AB, 5 HR, .318 AVG, 26 RBI, 32 R, 4 SB
3. Justin Upton, LF - Atlanta Braves
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 10
	Upton's pace case is all about the spanks -- in this case, 52 of them. If he somehow pulled off 52 homers, he'd break Andruw Jones' current franchise record (51 in 2005). It would also be just the second 50-homer season in Braves history. Notable stuff for a franchise that's boasted the likes of Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews.
Key Stats: 161 AB, 14 HR, .273 AVG, 28 RBI, 33 R, 3 SB
4. Robinson Cano, 2B - New York Yankees
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 1
	Cano, the Yankees' indisputable bedrock these days, is having another stellar season. He finds himself, at this writing, on pace for 48 homers in 2013. Should he accomplish that, he'd break the record for homers in a season by a primary second baseman, presently held by Nationals manager Davey Johnson, who hit 43 for the Braves in 1973.
Key Stats: 183 AB, 13 HR, .290 AVG, 32 RBI, 26 R, 2 SB
5. Yadier Molina, C - St. Louis Cardinals
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 5
	We know Molina to be a superlative defender (one of the best ever), and he's evolved into a productive hitter. To boot, this season he finds himself on pace for exactly 200 hits. Catchers, because they man a defense-first position and require occasional rest, very rarely reach such a benchmark. In fact, only one player, Mike Piazza in 1997, has tallied at least 200 hits in a season while playing at least 75 percent of his games at catcher. Since Piazza's total was 201, the all-time single-season hits record for catchers will be within reach. Should Molina keep it up, of course.
Key Stats: 166 AB, 2 HR, .319 AVG, 20 RBI, 16 R, 3 SB
6. Chris Davis, 1B - Baltimore Orioles
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 10
	Davis, who's been one of MLB's top power hitters in 2013, is on pace for 103 extra-base hits. If that comes to pass, then he'll become the first Oriole ever to tally 100 or more extra-base hits in a season, and overall he'd become just 16th player since 1900 to pull it off.
Key Stats: 154 AB, 13 HR, .312 AVG, 41 RBI, 27 R, 0 SB
7. Brandon Phillips, 2B - Cincinnati Reds
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 9
	Phillips has a couple of things going on. First, he's on pace for 138 RBI, which would be the fifth-most ever by a primary second baseman. Second (and in a related matter), Phillips is on pace for 18 sacrifice flies, which would be one shy of Gil Hodges all-time mark of 19 set in 1954.
Key Stats: 179 AB, 7 HR, .279 AVG, 38 RBI, 26 R, 0 SB
8. Michael Young, 3B - Philadelphia Phillies
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 25
	Young's .394 OBP means he's having a solid season at the plate. On the other hand, Young's on pace to hit into a whopping 40 double plays. That figure, we should note, would break Jim Rice's record of 36 in 1984. The main problem is that Young this season is hitting 2.8 ground balls for every fly ball. Not advisable!
Key Stats: 152 AB, 1 HR, .296 AVG, 10 RBI, 17 R, 0 SB
9. Jean Segura, SS - Milwaukee Brewers
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 7
	Segura, who's batting .355/.397/.566 this season, is on pace for 222 hits, 26 homers and 53 steals. Only once before has a shortstop reached 200 hits, 25 homers and 50 steals in the same season, and that was Hanley Ramirez in 2007. To boot, Segura is also on pace for 15 triples.
Key Stats: 170 AB, 7 HR, .353 AVG, 20 RBI, 26 R, 14 SB
10. Chris Carter, LF - Houston Astros
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 36
	It's the 2013 Astros, so it can't be good. Carter, who's whiffed in 38.1 percent of his plate appearances this season, is on pace for a nifty 238 strikeouts in 2013. That figure, it should be noted, would comfortably break Mark Reynolds' record of 223 in 2009.
Key Stats: 154 AB, 9 HR, .227 AVG, 23 RBI, 23 R, 0 SB

Pitchers
1. Mariano Rivera, RP - New York Yankees
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 13
	So Rivera, at age 43 and in his final season, is on pace for 63 saves. The record, you'll recall, belongs to Francisco Rodriguez, who notched 62 in 2008. It's almost too perfect to ponder, that the thoroughly beloved Rivera, in his last act, could take the record from the thoroughly not beloved Rodriguez. For what it's worth, Jason Grilli of the Pirates also finds himself on pace for 63 saves.
Key Stats: 18.1 IP, 0-0 W-L, 17 SV, 1.47 ERA, 14 Ks, 2 BB
2. Matt Moore, SP - Tampa Bay Rays
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 29
	I don't care a whit about pitcher wins and losses in terms of evaluating past performance or projecting future performance, but still: Moore is on pace to go 30-0! That's plainly coconuts and has no real chance of happening but, as mentioned, we shall not be constrained by reality on this day. For what it's worth, we haven't had a 30-game winner since Denny McClain of the Tigers back in 1968. Also worth noting: Tom Zachary of the 1929 Yankees owns the record for most wins in an undefeated season with 12.
Key Stats: 55.0 IP, 8-0 W-L, 0 SV, 2.29 ERA, 54 Ks, 26 BB
3. Patrick Corbin, SP - Arizona Diamondbacks
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 64
	At this writing, young Mr. Corbin boasts a record of 7-0 and an ERA of 1.44. If paces hold (they won't!), then Corbin will end the season with a record of 25-0 and an ERA that I've already mentioned. That would be ... impressive. Actually, no pitcher has won 25 or more games and finished with an ERA better than 1.50 since Grover Cleveland Alexander did so in 1915.
Key Stats: 62.1 IP, 7-0 W-L, 0 SV, 1.44 ERA, 51 Ks, 18 BB
4. Shelby Miller, SP - St. Louis Cardinals
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 14
	Even after Miller's "meh" outing against the Padres on Monday night, his 2013 ERA checks in at 1.74. Miller, you'll recall, is a rookie. If his performance holds, then Miller would log the lowest qualifying ERA by a rookie since Russ Ford of the Yankees posted a 1.65 mark in 1910.
Key Stats: 57.0 IP, 5-3 W-L, 0 SV, 1.74 ERA, 62 Ks, 15 BB
5. Hiroki Kuroda, SP - New York Yankees
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 28
	At present, Kuroda owns a 2013 ERA of 1.99. Should he soldier on similarly, then Kuroda, at age 38, would become the oldest AL hurler to post a sub-2.00 ERA since none other than Cy Young way back yonder 1908. Limiting the discussion to the live-ball era (i.e., from 1920 onward), and Kuroda obviously would be the oldest AL pitcher to pull it off.
Key Stats: 58.2 IP, 6-2 W-L, 0 SV, 1.99 ERA, 39 Ks, 14 BB
6. Yu Darvish, SP - Texas Rangers
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 9
	The invocation of Darvish's name should tip you off that this is going to be about strikeouts. And indeed it is. At present, Darvish leads the majors in whiffs, and he's on pace for a whopping 317 of them. That would be the highest single-season strikeout total by an American League hurler since Darvish's boss, Nolan Ryan, struck out 341 in 1977 as a member of the Angels. Of course, Ryan also walked an unthinkable 204 batters that season.
Key Stats: 66.2 IP, 7-2 W-L, 0 SV, 2.84 ERA, 91 Ks, 22 BB
7. Clay Buchholz, SP - Boston Red Sox
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 36
	Actually, consider this a two-man entry in which Buchholz is paired with teammate Jon Lester. We'll slap Buchholz's name on it, though, since he's having the modestly better season. Anyhow, each Boston hurler finds himself on pace to win 22 games in 2013. If that comes to pass (this one's actually conceivable), then it'll be the first Red Sox team to boast two 20-game winners since 2002, when Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe turned the trick. Before that, though, you have to go back to Ellis Kinder, Mel Parnell and the 1949 Red Sox.
Key Stats: 65.2 IP, 6-0 W-L, 0 SV, 1.78 ERA, 69 Ks, 24 BB
8. Doug Fister, SP - Detroit Tigers
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 33
	Fister is not only having a pretty impressive season in terms of keeping the ball in the park (only one homer allowed in 54 2/3 innings), he's also having an "impressive" season in terms of plunking opposing hitters. Fister already has 10 hit batsmen to his credit, which puts him on target for 39 this season. Of note: The AL record is 32 by Chick Fraser of the A's back in 1901, and the overall record belongs to Brooklyn's Joe McGinnity with 41 in 1900. Let's make this happen!
Key Stats: 54.2 IP, 5-1 W-L, 0 SV, 3.62 ERA, 43 Ks, 9 BB
9. Felix Hernandez, SP - Seattle Mariners
Fantasy Ranking by Position: 5
	This one's just weird. Despite the fact that King Felix is having an outstanding season, he's managed to give up 20 doubles already. Project that forward and you get 74 doubles allowed on the year. The record belongs to Rick Helling, who coughed up 68 two-baggers with the Rangers in 2001. How utterly strange it would be if, say, Hernandez won the Cy Young and set the mark for most doubles allowed, all in the same season.
Key Stats: 69.2 IP, 5-3 W-L, 0 SV, 2.07 ERA, 72 Ks, 12 BB
10. Joe Blanton, SP - Los Angeles Angels

	Let's go negative! If paces hold, then Blanton will notch 26 losses this season to go with zero wins. Under such circumstances, he'd become baseball's first 20-game loser since Detroit's Mike Maroth in 2003. Of course, Blanton would also become the first 25-game loser since Ben Cantwell of the 1935 Braves. The problem, of course, is that Blanton, should he continue pitching poorly enough to lose so many games, would be overwhelmingly likely to lose his rotation/roster spot. See also: Humber, Philip.
Key Stats: 50.1 IP, 0-7 W-L, 0 SV, 6.62 ERA, 35 Ks, 13 BB