The overriding subject of this World Series heading into Game 1 is Colorado's record-setting nine-day layoff. How it will affect the Rockies, whether it will foul up their hitters' timing, whether it will sabotage the finely tuned command of their pitchers, all of it is fair game. Nobody, including the Rockies, will know until they take the field whether the rest will be beneficial (small chance) or a detriment (bet on this).
We all saw how a week off completely dismantled Detroit's momentum last year. Tigers pitchers threw the ball all over the place, and baseball, responsible for this year's dragged-out schedule for television purposes, can only hope its jewel isn't as sloppy as last year's.
Even under the best of circumstances, I like the Red Sox for two reasons. One, the way Josh Beckett is pitching and the way David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez consistently produce in the clutch is one of the game's modern marvels. Two, the American League is just so much stronger than the National League. Most times, unless something weird happens (like Detroit's layoff last year), it's like the difference between varsity and junior varsity.
For the Rockies to win this series, they must overcome a laundry list of things besides the layoff. They must hit Beckett's offerings, slow Ortiz and Ramirez and keep pests like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youklis and Jacoby Ellsbury (or Coco Crisp, whomever manager Terry Francona starts) from reaching base too often. They must bridge the gap between Boston's steep playoff experience and their own lack of experience. They must slow the Red Sox in Fenway, where every Boston hitter winds up looking like Hulk Hogan.
Including the playoffs, Boston is 56-31 at Fenway Park this season. Two of those losses, though, came in a three-game series against Colorado in June, back before the Rockies were a cohesive, firing-on-all-cylinders machine that they would become by season's end.
The Red Sox should not expect as many breaks as the Indians handed them in the ALCS. These Rockies are slick with the glove. Keep an eye on rookie shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in particular. The guy is a closet full of Gold Gloves waiting to happen.
The Rockies have a nice balance in the speed of Wily Taveras and Kaz Matsui, the power of Matt Holliday, Garret Atkins and Brad Hawpe and the versatility of Todd Helton. Rookie starters Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales have been stable beyond their years, and the Rockies have a decision to make with Aaron Cook, who missed the final six weeks with an oblique injury. Do they add him to the World Series rotation? He hasn't pitched since Aug. 10, but manager Clint Hurdle sounds as if he's leaning toward handing the ball back to Cook.
Bottom line: Colorado is going to need as much pitching as possible, because the Rockies do not face lineups this deep and this powerful in the NL.
Prediction: Boston in 4.
