I'm contractually required to preface any April commentary on player performance by thrice sounding the small-sample-size bugle. But heck to Betsy, we're already around 14 percent of the way through the 2008 baseball campaign. I mean, the NHL season will be upon us any day now.
So it isn't too early to revisit a 10-pack of weirdly NL-centric predictions made back in March and beyond. We were so innocent then, what with our Tigers optimism and our Marlins pessimism and our concern about Albert Pujols' throbbing elbow of ligamentary despair. It was a glorious time to be alive.
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| Joe Torre's lineups in L.A. leave a little something to be desired. Unless it's still 1999. (AP) |
1. Joe Torre will handicap the Dodgers by benching James Loney and Matt Kemp in favor of logey veterans: As a Yankees fan, I miss certain things about the great Mr. Torre. His effortless way of extinguishing Steinbrenner-created firestorms, for example, or his folksy pregame anecdotes about his playing days ("Gosh, there was this one time when Bob Gibson beaned some rookie for crowding the plate. The kid ate dinner through a straw for the next nine months and never recovered the hearing in his left ear. That's the kind of competitor Gibby was").
What I don't miss is his stubborn refusal to acknowledge that the modern-day version of a player might not be the same as the 1999 one frozen in his memory. Lord knows the Dodgers don't have a singular option at third base right now, but that's still no excuse to bat Nomar Garciaparra cleanup. Along those same lines, Andruw Jones looks ghastly about now -- his torso resembles a garbage bag stuffed with leaves -- and still Torre has only occasionally demoted him in the order.
Listen, Loney and Kemp aren't finished products. But they're a far better bet, for today and tomorrow and the day after they go 0-for-11 with six strikeouts, than any of the Dodgers' vets. The team isn't scoring as many runs as they should and that falls on Torre and his lineup construction. Don't expect the L.A. media to call him on it, though, because he's a respected and respectful guy who remembers writers' names. Verdict: I wasn't too far off.
2. Joey Votto will sit behind Scott Hatteberg, because no individual under the age of 26 shall ever find his name inscribed upon a Dusty Baker lineup card: Lotsa credit to ol' Dustbag here, even if he insists on batting his centerfielder leadoff, no matter who it is or how massively unfit that player may be for the role. Dusty has stuck with Edwin Encarnacion through punted grounder and failure to run out pop fly alike.
He has similarly given Votto the benefit of the doubt, despite a soggy spring training and headlights-meet-deer first week of the regular season. Of course, Votto has proceeded to disavow everything we youth-and-stats disciples love about him, notching only a single walk in his first 59 plate appearances. Whatever. Verdict: I was wrong, but for the right reasons, or something.
3. Everybody surnamed "Cordero" will have a tough go of things: No, it wasn't going out on a limb over a piranha-filled pool to suggest that Chad Cordero, currently investigating the "clicking" in his shoulder, would have some issues. But I'd have expected Francisco Cordero to throw more than eight innings in three-plus weeks and walk way fewer than six batters during 'em. Sing it loud, so the folks way in the cheap seats can hear you: Spending $12 million per year on a 70-inning-per-season closer is an abominable misappropriation of limited resources. Verdict: I was right.
4. The Pittsburgh Pirates have learned their lesson: New GM Neil Huntington preached patience. New skipper John Russell stressed fundamentals. And yet there was Doug Mientkiewicz on Tuesday night, wearing his grittiness like a war wound, starting at third base and batting seventh. Verdict: Why bother?
5. Barry Bonds will be plucked out of purgatory before the games begin, because GMs would sign a convicted bunny-impaler if he could contribute: The designated hitters you would absolutely, positively rank ahead of Idle Barry: Jim Thome, David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, probably Gary Sheffield ... are there others? Not to mention that in a league which permits Adam Dunn to risk harm to himself and others every time a ball is struck in his general direction, you could do worse defensively in left field than Bonds.
On an intellectual level, it disturbs me that Bonds is perceived as so radioactive from a PR standpoint that none of the 15 or so teams who could use his bat will even give him a sniff. Think about it: Baseball allowed Steve Howe 320 chances to clean up his act, yet Barry gets blacklisted for being a jerkhead who never failed a single test for performance-enhancing substances. Due process is as much a fiction nowadays as dinosaurs. Verdict: I was wrong.
6. Related -- The Giants will score 62 runs before the All-Star Break, at which point Barry Zito's win-loss record will be 1-16: Hot damn -- they have scored 70 in 22 contests, outpacing the Royals (who have played two fewer games) and lurking within a grand slam of the Padres. Fortunately, Zito seems intent on redeeming me and my Predictamatron 6000, starting off with five straight losses and 35 hits, 12 walks and 10 strikeouts in his first 25 2/3 innings. Some of that Idol Gives Back cash oughta be earmarked for counseling Giants fans. Verdict: I was half-right. O, happy day.
7. The Rockies' young pitchers are still young, and thus cannot be counted upon for anything beyond impulsive tattoo acquisition: Manny Corpas, Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales got worked hard during the Rockies' unlikely run in 2007, and it's to their credit that they were able to stomach the pressure. Still, a brief glimpse at the numbers, especially those relating to their control, suggests Jimenez and Morales were rushed to the majors out of necessity. As for Corpas, it was inevitable the second hitters started laying off that sinking-fastball thingie he throws so well, they'd start mashing him. Check back in on all three in early 2009. Verdict: I was right. Go, me!
8. Prince Fielder's new diet of kelp and wheat germ will have zero effect on his offensive output: As we have seen with any number of first basemen whose girth renders them candidates for the local zoo's plus-size MRI machine -- John Kruk, Prince's daddy Cecil, etc. -- caloric intake has little effect on one's ability to smack the dickens out of a thrown projectile. Sure, it often compromises their ability to move and/or live past 53, but baseball tends to be forgiving of such lapses. So chomp away, young Prince, on beans or on bacon, on tofu or on Twinkies. Wednesday's double-dinger assault on Cole Hamels is a sign of things to come. Verdict: I will be proven right within the next couple of days.
9. Trevor Hoffman will be fine, because any pipsqueak can enter a game with nobody on base and get three outs: If we forced him to contend with inherited runners in high-leverage situations or ran him out there for more than 18 pitches, that could present a problem. But since we'd never, ever think of doing that to venerable Trevor, he'll notch his traditional 35 saves without incident. Also, let's ditch the line of thinking that his psyche has been shattered by the way he finished off -- or, rather, failed to finish off -- the 2007 season. He bounced back pretty darn okay from the Scott Brosius homer in the 1998 World Series. OK? OK? Jeez: Nope. They might as well start etching Hoffman's name onto the "Craig Biggio Memorial Veteran Who Will Torpedo A Contender Because Everybody Loves Him Too Much To Sit His Ass Down" trophy. Verdict: I was wrong.
10. Jason Giambi and Frank Thomas will be positively DH-licious for teams not concerned with things like mobility and the ability to turn on fastballs inside: It seems to me that Big Frank rebounded quite nicely from an invisible April 2007, no? The Jays can spin his release however they want, but it'd be gracious to simply acknowledge that their reasoning started and ended with "we really, really, really don't want to have to pay him $10 million next season."
As for Giambi, he's as useless as an Izturis against the hard-slingin' Papelbons and Verlanders of the world -- a data point lost on Ozzie Guillen, who inexplicably issued him two intentional walks Wednesday night. Still, he'll get on base and has lost enough weight to qualify as a passable first baseman, except during those instances when he's asked to, you know, throw. He ain't dead yet. Verdict: I was wrong ... for now.
