Youth movement making organizations draft new blueprints

Meanwhile, in Tampa Bay, the biggest reason the Rays are evolving into one of this season's best stories is because of homegrown products such as Evan Longoria (first-round pick in 2006) and B.J. Upton (2002). And the Rays are in prime position to do even more draft damage this season.

With last year's No. 1 overall pick, David Price, getting closer every day to joining the major league rotation, the Rays now will become the first club in history to pick first overall two years in a row.

Milwaukee's Jack Zduriencik was honored for his work in building the Brewers. (AP)

The Pirates and Royals choose second and third Thursday, with Baltimore, San Francisco, Florida, Cincinnati, the Chicago White Sox, Washington and Houston rounding out the top 10.

Beckham, Alvarez and Posey are expected to be among the first three players chosen, with left-handed pitcher Brian Matusz (University of San Diego), right-handed pitcher Aaron Crow (University of Missouri) and shortstop Gordon Beckham (University of Georgia) also targeted to go high in a draft deep in first basemen and college relief pitchers.

Now to expect any of these guys to produce as quickly and heartily as Bruce -- or Tulowitzki, Ellsbury, Zimmerman, Braun or even Longoria -- would be naïve and unrealistic.

But as they say, when preparation meets opportunity -- and with even the Red Sox (Ellsbury, second baseman Dustin Pedroia, pitchers Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester) and the Yankees (pitchers Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes) coming to terms in recent years with the importance of a fertile farm system, especially when measured against the hit-and-miss free-agent market -- well, opportunities abound.

"I still think the talent of the player dictates the outcome," says Arizona GM Josh Byrnes. "That being said, there's more of a tendency to create opportunities for a younger player if an organization likes him."

Several factors are playing into why, including:

• Off-the-charts talent. Sure, this falls into the "duh" category -- a player has to have incredible talent to do what Tulowitzki, Ellsbury, Bruce, etc. are doing -- but it's also worth reminding that not every draft is as deep as the one from 2005. Most industry scouts are of a mind that '05 could end up being even greater than the 1985 draft that yielded such luminaries as Barry Bonds, Will Clark, Rafael Palmeiro, Barry Larkin and B.J. Surhoff.

• Economics. With a smart scouting director and staff, odds are greater that the roughly $5 million or $6 million a club spends to sign its draft picks will net better value than spending that same money in the free-agent market. Especially because clubs usually are committing to free agents for more than one year. In addition to the inherent danger of overpaying a veteran free agent who might be on the decline sooner rather than later, revenue sharing has helped change the game's financial landscape. This has allowed mid- to small-market clubs like San Diego (Jake Peavy), Minnesota (Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer) and Florida (Hanley Ramirez) to re-sign their better younger players, which dilutes the free-agent market even further.

• Drug-testing. As baseball emerges from the Steroid Era, the game is moving away from the lumbering, one-dimensional slugger back toward multi-skilled players. There is a higher value on fresh, young legs that are versatile enough to win games any number of ways and can better withstand the rigors of a six-month season -- especially with testing for performance-enhancing drugs now including amphetamines.

"I think, for a lot of reasons," Byrnes says, "we've gotten to the point where all 30 clubs really value the draft."

Says Tampa Bay's Friedman: "People see all of these young players in the major leagues, and therefore teams are devoting more resources and time to the draft. It's changed some from five years ago. ... the increase in young players making an impact has increased focus on the draft, generally speaking.

"In the past, some of the bigger-revenue teams didn't focus on it as much. Now, I think, they're devoting more resources to the draft."

What that does is make things far more competitive, to the point where a blatant mistake can hurt a club for years. Part of the reason San Diego, after back-to-back NL West titles in 2005 and 2006, is setting more quickly than the early evening West Coast sun is because the Padres completely botched their first overall pick in 2004.

Prep shortstop Matt Bush, who was eventually moved to pitcher and blew out his arm, is only the third No. 1 overall pick since the draft's 1965 inception not to play a game in the majors (not counting Price, Tampa Bay's No. 1 pick last summer, because not enough time has elapsed for Price to get to the majors).

Aside from Bush, only catcher Steve Chilcott (the Mets' first overall pick in 1966) and pitcher Brien Taylor (Yankees, 1991) failed to even have a cup of coffee in the majors.

Of the Padres' everyday players, only shortstop Khalil Greene was drafted (first round, 2002) and developed by San Diego.

Meanwhile, on any given night, half of defending NL West champion Arizona's lineup was drafted and developed by the Diamondbacks: Drew, Upton, Reynolds, Jackson and Chad Tracy (seventh round, 2001) -- as were Scherzer, ace Brandon Webb (eighth round, 2000) and starter Micah Owings (third round, 2005).

"Without question," Byrnes says, "our scouts and development people have done a great job."

More and more, those who do are being rewarded.

And for those who don't, well, there's another chance to fix that on Thursday.