What the hell -- we're almost halfway done with the 2008 Fantasy season? Already? Sounds like it's high time to give out some midseason Fantasy awards. Bunny, bring me my pipe and severe-judgment slippers.
|
|
| Lance Berkman benefits batting between Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee. (US Presswire) |
Assuming Chipper Jones cools a bit, Berkman has a solid shot at a triple-crown run; right now, he ranks in the top four of all three categories. More amazing, he has managed to swipe 12 bags in 14 tries, despite slow wheels and a puffy torso that could net him a gig as Jim Belushi's stunt double.
On a more macro level, Berkman's golly-gum-gee-willikers act doesn't feel contrived. Why isn't he a Chipper-level star? He's played in the World Series and in All-Star Games. Get this guy a publicist and a cameo on The Bill Engvall Show.
Worst: Curtis Granderson: We'll ignore the duh-really nominees: Dontrelle Willis, for his sins against the strike zone; Victor Martinez, for leaving his swing back in 2007; and Eric Gagne, for the Fantasy approximation of parking sideways across three handicapped spots. No, the player whose performance most stands in sad contrast with his lofty draft position is Mr. Granderson.
Sure, he missed three weeks at the start of the year with a hand injury that might have some lingering effects on his batsmanship. At the same time, his 2007 campaign upped expectations to an almost unreasonable degree ... even as his primary pre-2007 weakness, hitting lefty pitching, continued to weigh him down.
I'll say this: We number-stupid members of the media did him no favors in stringing together an entirely useless line of stats (e.g., "In 1986, Von Hayes was the only player in baseball history to score more than 106 runs, walk 73-plus times and hit at least 46 doubles while being hit with fewer than two pitches"). We made Granderson's 20-triple, 20-homer, 20-steal, 100-run campaign seem like something historic, which it wasn't.
Least likely to bring back anything resembling fair value in a trade: Jose Guillen: Maybe you'd deal for Guillen in a Fantasy road-rage league, or in one that awards points for sass-talkin' your teammates. In Fantasy, however, outfield remains a position as deep as a puddle is shallow, plus many owners will be suspicious of the guy's 'roid issues, lowly OBP and streakiness. Tout his counting stats (27 doubles, 12 homers, 58 RBI) and his potential willingness to claw out opponents' eyes during bench-clearing skirmishes.
|
|
| Vladimir Guerrero is turning it up as the season moves along. (US Presswire) |
Best argument against drafting based on name recognition and/or perceived dreaminess: Derek Jeter: He remains an intangible-tastic Leader of Men and an effective commercial pitchman. What he doesn't do as often as one might like is drive the ball or run: His current OPS of .715 would be his full-season low by 60 points and he's on pace for his lowest stolen base total since 2003. There have been signs of life over the last few weeks, but a bunch of singles doesn't suggest anything more than improving luck. At this lull in his decorated career, Jeter is essentially Edgar Renteria with neater sideburns.
Here's an unpleasant thought for Yankee fans: the peerless Baseball-Reference.com pegs Roberto Alomar as the player most similar to Jeter during age 29 to 33. Remember what happened when Robbie hit 34, as Jeter will on Thursday? Mets fans sure do. If the comparison proves instructive, we're going to have to stop asking when the Yankees will finally move Jeter off short and start wondering if he can hit enough to justify his presence elsewhere on the diamond.
Most underrated: Mark Ellis: I don't get this. Second base is a black hole for Fantasy once you get past the elite six (Utley/Kinsler/Uggla/Phillips/Roberts/Pedroia ... make it seven if B.J. Upton qualifies at 2B in your league). Yet there sits Ellis on any number of waiver wires, wondering what he needs to do to find a clean, loving Fantasy home. In one of my leagues we have 18 teams and owners who drop and add players without thought or conscience, and still Ellis hasn't ascended onto a roster.
Through Sunday, Ellis' numbers are uncannily similar to those of Kelly Johnson, often showcased as one of the position's new stars. Johnson enjoys the OPS advantage, .815 to .781, but they're roughly even there when you take park factors (Ellis plays half his games in a big'un) into account. They have the same number of at-bats (257) and steals (both with seven in nine tries), and are nearly identical in runs scored (41 for Johnson, 42 for Ellis), homers (seven vs. eight), RBI (31 vs. 28), walks (31 vs. 34) and total bases (116 vs. 117). But we're told Ellis is merely a product of Oakland's resourcefulness in finding useful players and Johnson is a star-to-be. Can somebody explain that to me without using the phrase "Kelly is younger"?
In conclusion, I like Ellis. I'm rooting for Ellis. I think you should drop the Placido Polancos, Luis Castillos and Akinori Iwamuras of the world and replace them with Ellis. Yup.
|
|
| The numbers make it easy to confuse Josh Hamilton with Larry Walker. (AP) |
Most successful at making his owners feel like complete ingrates: Jose Reyes: Perhaps it's because so many rotisserians invested a top seven pick in him, but Reyes doesn't deserve the whipping-boy treatment based on his uneven play (He doesn't run enough! He might only hit 18 triples! He no longer does the Electric Slide after scoring a run!). If you can get past the day-to-day nitpicking, you'll notice that Reyes is putting up similar statistics to the ones he notched in 2006 when he finished with a line of .300/.354/.487 and stole 64 bases. So he's a pain the ass -- big deal. You don't have to baby-sit him. Suck it up.
Most compelling reasons to stay far away from loserhead organizations, in Fantasy as in religion: Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny: At the beginning of September 2007, the Pirates found themselves 117.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. As such, nobody, not even the 14,000-odd fans who came out to the ballyard every night, expected them to keep their prized young arms in the rotation. And so it was that Gorzelanny threw 34 1/3 September innings (to reach a career high of 202) and Snell threw 33 (to finish with a career high of 208), and so it is that both have broken down in 2008. There's a moral to this story and you're clever enough to figure out what it is.
|
|
| Rickie Weeks: A familiar face on any Dobrow Fantasy team. (Getty Images) |
I never learn. As per usual, Weeks has already spent a few weeks on the disabled list (at least it wasn't a hand issue this time). Now that he's back, I expect a period of "readjustment" during which he hacks at breaking stuff four feet outside the strike zone. This will prompt me to utter several less-than-gracious things about him and his character.
Is there still some hope for us down the road? If Paris and Nicole and Mike and Evander can settle their differences, who's to say that we can't? Because even after all the disappointments, all the phantom injuries and the lack of hustle, I still believe that Weeks will realize his "Joe Morgan, but coherent" potential. And that makes me a complete idiot.



