Fantasy team in flux? Have no fear: Dobrow is here!
Shortstop
First-half favorite: Cristian Guzman. We can harumph all we want about his refusal to take a walk and his almost mystic tendency to run his team out of innings, but 32 extra-base hits and 50 runs gotta count for something. To fall back upon the most overused nonsequitur in the English language: He is what he is. Prediction: Guzman will make some small-market team's fans very, very unhappy next season after its well-intentioned GM inks him to a lucrative free-agent deal.
Second-half swell: Captain Intangible/grounder-to-second machine Derek Jeter is the popular choice for a heroic second-half resurgence, but I'll go with Jeff Keppinger and Stephen Drew. The former was sporting an .819 OPS when he went down with a broken kaboodle in May, while the latter has been the victim of some improbable luck so far (every ball with which he makes contact gets gloved).
Second-half stumble: Miguel Tejada. So very tired.
Outfield
First-half favorite: Josh Hamilton ranks right up there with Jeff Conaway and Chyna as the finest human beings I've had the great pleasure of observing on TV, because he used to do a lot of drugs and now he doesn't. Carlos Quentin isn't quite the human being Hamilton may be -- he has slain nary a personal demon, except his chocoholicism -- but he's taken fine advantage of his new pea-sized home park. No, Xavier Nady has been the biggest surprise north of second base, with his average still hovering over .300 and his bat still connecting at a 20-HR/100-RBI pace. For the first time in his career, Nady's even smacking around righty pitchers (.898 OPS against them in 2008, versus .755 for his career). Old dog, new trick, etc.
Second-half swell: Y'all got really upset with me a few weeks back for labeling the super-nice Curtis Granderson as a big honkin' disappointment. Predictably, he has gone on a tear -- a very polite tear -- since then, even upping his batting average against lefties over .300 (in 45 warmth- and goodness-packed at-bats). So I humbly apologize for my callous statements about the kind, worldly Mr. Granderson. He is a marvelous hitter and an even more marvelous person. I applaud his character and his batsmanship, and will atone for my transgressions by making a donation to one of the hundreds of charities he supports.
Second-half stumble: Ryan Ludwick is already coming down to earth, as witnessed by his .228/.298/.406 June. Take out Cody Ross' miracle weekend in Denver (12-for-20, 4 doubles, 2 HRs, 15 RBI in four games) and you have a poster boy for hacktastic mediocrity. What's Jayson Werth? Not a lot, because his 11 steals are an aberration. See, that's funny because "Werth" sounds like "worth." Funny!
Starting pitcher
First-half favorite: Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.78 ERA, .86 WHIP) and Edinson Volquez (11-3, 2.36 ERA, 116 Ks) -- duh. Meanwhile, quietly, Ervin Santana has finally experienced his lightbulb moment ("if I close my eyes and try reeeeaaallly hard, I can pretend that every stadium is my home stadium!"). A lot of people assumed that teammate John Lackey's early-season triceps injury would linger; those people are dumb.
Second-half swell: Justin Verlander's inevitable resurgence has already begun, with seven sharp outings in a row. Let's not forget fellow 2006 debutante Francisco Liriano, who put up 13 scoreless innings in his past two Triple-A starts. Sweetness follows.
Second-half stumble: Duchscherer isn't likely to allow a mere 66 hits in his next 101 innings, plus he remains an injury risk. Volquez's 54 walks in 110 innings make me wonder whether he's a mechanical hiccup away from becoming a right-handed Oliver Perez. And should it worry Tampa fans and Fantasy owners alike that Scott Kazmir hasn't gotten past the sixth inning in his past five starts? I think it should.
Relief pitcher
First-half favorite: Kerry Wood is healthy and J.J. Putz, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Chad Cordero and Rafael Soriano are not. Take THAT, Dr. James Andrews! Up YOURS, Dr. Tim Kremcheck!
Second-half swell: The Braves don't seem to have another viable saves option besides Mike Gonzalez, who has looked strong in his first few outings (four hits, no walks, 13 Ks in his first nine innings). Me, I have an irrational crush on Grant Balfour (31 Ks, 0 HRs allowed in 20 innings), but the Rays are too intelligent to limit one of their liveliest bullpen arms to up-by-three-in-the-ninth situations. BTW, before the preceding sentence, I have never in seven years of writing about baseball started a clause with "the Rays are too intelligent ..." Situations change mighty fast in this era of MLB parity.
Second-half stumble: I don't list Jon Rauch here out of concern that he'll lose his effectiveness (only six walks in 44 innings so far). I just worry that he'll be dealt to a contender and plugged into a middle-relief role, which will torpedo his Fantasy value. Sometimes, I care too much.
