CUBS vs. DODGERS | Series Breakdown
And so it begins: The Cubs' quest to win their first World Series in a century. Expectations have rarely been higher in Chicago, and with good reason. Lou Piniella's club, top to bottom, is the best in the National League.
For those of you who like your omens, chew on this: The Cubs' 97 wins is the most in 63 years, since the 1945 club won 98 games. And that '45 club played in the last World Series in Wrigley Field.
I think Game 1 will be perhaps the biggest of the series. Los Angeles' Derek Lowe must set the tone for the Dodgers, and a couple of issues could come into play with him. One, he's not nearly as good on the road (4.42 ERA) as he is at home (2.30 ERA). And two, he's an impending free agent who is not expected to return to the Dodgers next season, so who knows how that will play psychologically. If you're a Dodgers fan, you can take heart that Lowe had one foot out the door in Boston in 2004, too, and helped pitch the Red Sox to a World Series title.
The Cubs won five of seven games against the Dodgers this season (3-0 in Wrigley Field, 2-2 in Dodger Stadium), but Los Angeles' club is vastly different now. Those games were all pre-Manny Ramirez. Since he joined the team Aug. 1, the Dodgers' lineup is far superior. Ramirez is at home in Hollywood, and Hollywood has a new cult hero. It's a lovefest.
Outfielders Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, in particular, have hit better since the addition of Ramirez to the lineup. One big question for the Dodgers will be which way manager Joe Torre goes with his middle infielders. The Dodgers took off for good when second baseman Jeff Kent left with a knee injury and Blake DeWitt replaced him, and when Torre benched Nomar Garciaparra in favor of Angel Berroa at shortstop. Will Kent -- and even shortstop Rafael Furcal, whose back is better -- see significant time? Torre has some decisions to make.
The Cubs stock five players who hit 20 or more homers this season -- Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Mark DeRosa and Derrek Lee. DeRosa's calf is a concern -- he didn't play the last week of the season because it was strained. His presence gives the lineup more pop and allows Piniella to do more things with his bench. They need him.
Keep an eye on Cubs starters Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden, too. Each had arm issues during the final month of the season. The Cubs nursed Harden, and his Game 3 start will give him roughly 10 days between outings. Given his decline in velocity and strikeouts recently, it looks like he could use the break.
Prediction: Cubs in 4.
BREWERS vs. PHILLIES | Series Breakdown
Pitching usually wins but, in this series, which pitchers are able to keep the ball in the ballpark will be especially important. Both the Brewers, behind Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy, and the Phillies, behind Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth, rake.
How the Brewers react to the pressures of October might tell the story of this series. Philadelphia was there a year ago and had the misfortune of running up against Colorado, one of the hottest teams ever to enter the postseason. That experience should help the Phillies in two ways: It will familiarize them with October, and it will make them hungry to improve on last season's three-games-and-out finish.
This Phillies club is stronger than last year's. They're better defensively, especially at third base with Pedro Feliz. And closer Brad Lidge has been mentioned in Most Valuable Player and Cy Young talk. Of course, he has his own October demons to battle. He has given up some big postseason homers.
The Brewers are 74-46 this season in games in which they homer, and are 16-26 when they do not go deep. It's no secret that it's often all or nothing with them, so the Phillies will have to identify either Braun or Fielder as a guy they can't let beat them. Maybe both, depending on circumstances and situations.
The pitching matchups favor the Phillies. Milwaukee ace CC Sabathia will not be available until at least Game 2, and probably Game 3. Following three consecutive starts on short rest, the wisdom of making it four in a row (which it would be if he starts Game 2) is highly questionable. Especially because, since he's not starting Game 1, Sabathia probably will be able to start only one game in the series anyway.
Ben Sheets is probably not an option for Milwaukee in this series -- and, after the way his sore elbow reacted against the Cubs on Saturday, Sheets probably is done for the year. Yovanni Gallardo was terrific against Pittsburgh on Thursday, but that's his only start since May after undergoing knee surgery.
The Brewers are 10-16 since Sept. 1. Philadelphia should advance to the NLCS.
Prediction: Phillies in 4.
