Lincecum's Cy Young surprising until you check his numbers
When you place Tim Lincecum's 2008 credentials against the rest of the field, what you come away with is that there is no wrong answer in this year's National League Cy Young Award voting.
But there is no more right answer than Lincecum, whose dominance lay not only in his 18-5 record and 2.62 ERA, but in his NL-leading 265 strikeouts and .221 opponents batting average.
"I'm definitely surprised," Lincecum said of his landslide victory during a conference call Tuesday afternoon with members of the Baseball Writers Association of America. "I thought it was going to be a lot closer."
So did a whole lot of folks.
Arizona's Brandon Webb won 22 games.
The New York Mets' Johan Santana led the NL with a 2.53 ERA.
Milwaukee's CC Sabathia, a late entrant in the derby, went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA after joining the Brewers in early July.
Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge was perfect in converting 41 saves in 41 chances.
You can build a strong case for each. To me, as with Lincecum, the only surprise is that the Giants right-hander was a runaway winner, garnering 137 points to Webb's 73 and Santana's distant 55 (Lidge was fourth with 10 points). Lincecum scooped up 23 of the 32 first-place votes.
Webb and Santana claimed four each. The other went to Sabathia.
"I was thinking Johan, Sabathia and Webb," Lincecum said. "All three are great players. All three are previous Cy Young winners.
"I figured they'd have a better shot, or as good a shot as I did. It just so happened it worked in my favor."
Well, to say that "it just so happened" is maybe the understatement of the day, like saying "the breaks just went in his favor."
I had a vote in the NL Cy Young balloting this year, and I listed Lincecum first, Santana second and Webb third.
What separated Lincecum for me was that, in a year in which the award could have gone one of many directions, he was the most dominant. He led the NL with 265 strikeouts, blowing away Santana (206, tied for third) and Webb (183, not in the top 10). He led the NL in opponents batting-average-against (.221). He was tied for second in innings pitched (227; Santana was first at 234 1/3).
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| 'People have been doubting me my whole life,' Lincecum says. (AP) |
Webb was the Cy favorite for much of the year, and his sinker is the most devastating in the game. But what detracted from his NL-leading 22 wins (tied with Cleveland's Cliff Lee for the most in baseball) was a three-start stretch against the Dodgers (twice) and Padres late in the season in which he was pummeled for 22 hits and 21 runs (19 earned) over only 13 2/3 innings coinciding with Arizona surrendering first place in the NL West.
And Sabathia? His case was the most difficult of all because he was so tough to categorize. But there is no format whereby you can evaluate the overall numbers of a pitcher who is traded to a different league midseason.
This is the NL Cy award and, as such, voters are instructed to evaluate a candidate's merit based on NL numbers. Sabathia's were phenomenal, and the fact that he pitched Milwaukee into the playoffs earned him points ... but bottom line, it still doesn't add up to Lincecum's numbers over six months.
"His 2.70 ERA combined ... that's tough to beat, especially pitching in two different leagues," Lincecum said.
True. But so is Lincecum's 2.62 in the NL, second to Santana's.
It's a changing world here in Awardland. Time was when everybody simply looked at who led the league in wins, then wrote that guy's name on the Cy Young ballots.
And that maybe still would have been the case if the Mets' Santana had crossed the 20-win threshold. That and his league-leading ERA would have been difficult to overlook.
But there are so many things besides wins that should be factored in, particularly ERA and categories that help define a pitcher's dominance -- strikeouts and opponents' batting average being two of them.
The Giants also lost 90 games -- yet when Lincecum was on the mound, they were nowhere close to that. He pitched in nearly 31 percent of San Francisco's victories.
"I look at dominating factors," Lincecum, all of 24, said of measuring Cy Young-worthy candidates. "Guys like Sabathia pitch complete games like it's their job. Guys like Santana dominate their leagues. Strikeouts, ERA, opponents' batting average, wins and losses, winning percentage ... all of those stack up."
Behind a refined change-up to go along with his 97 mph fastball, Lincecum shaved a significant portion from his ERA, from 4.00 in 2007 to this year's 2.62 model. In becoming only San Francisco's second Cy Young winner, following Mike McCormick in 1967, Lincecum stacked up plenty in his favor.
"I've always taken pride in striking guys out," he said. "From high school to the minors ... I definitely like looking at that. I don't read anything into it, but it definitely gets me fired up."
In Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have two very good, young pitchers around which to build. In a tepid NL West, a one-year turnaround from last season's 72-90 record might be too much to expect, but a team that not long ago consisted of Barry Bonds and a bunch of old guys has a couple of key pieces.
General manager Brian Sabean is looking this winter to improve his lineup, which finished last in the majors in home runs in '08. Maybe when he's talking to free agent hitters, he can use this pitch: Hey, if you sign with us, you don't have to face Lincecum.
