It's a slow market for middle relievers, worse if you're righty

Whatever the reason, many of the long-term contracts given to middle men haven't worked out.

Even among closers, many of last winter's big deals didn't work out well. The Yankees got their money's worth after signing Mariano Rivera for $45 million over three years, and Francisco Cordero ($46 million for four years) saved 34 games for the Reds. But Troy Percival ($8 million for two years) was hurt almost as much as he wasn't for the Rays, and Eric Gagne's $10 million contract was a disaster for the Brewers.

Still, it's the deals for middle relievers that are the toughest to figure out.

The White Sox wouldn't have made the playoffs without what Scott Linebrink ($19 million for four years) and Octavio Dotel ($11 million for two years) did in the first half of 2008, but Linebrink got hurt and Dotel became ineffective, and the bullpen became a big problem again for Ozzie Guillen down the stretch.

The White Sox had made fixing the bullpen a priority, after they finished 28th in relief ERA (5.47) in 2007. The teams at the bottom of the list in 2008 -- the Rangers, Indians and Tigers, to name three -- know that they have to find some way to improve this winter.

So do the Mets, whose bullpen faltered after closer Billy Wagner was hurt, contributing greatly to their failure to make the playoffs.

The problem is finding value.

"There is inconsistency in that market, without question," said Twins general manager Bill Smith, whose team has also made bullpen help a priority. "Ultimately, we just have to do our homework and trust our scouts."

And then, quite possibly, hold their nose and pay the going rate.

"The middle guys are usually guys who aren't good enough to be fifth starters," one frustrated executive complained. "What does that tell you? Ninety percent of them aren't good enough to start."

That certainly seems to have been true for Affeldt, the one free agent who has already signed a contract with a new team this winter. In 42 career starts, all for the Royals, Affeldt was 8-17 with a 5.41 ERA.

The Reds talked about trying Affeldt as a starter when they signed him as a free agent a year ago. Instead, they left him in the 'pen, and he responded with a career year, appearing in 74 games with a career-best 3.33 ERA.

"From what I've seen, he has trouble throwing strikes," said one scout who isn't convinced. "I don't know how much confidence I'd have in him."

It doesn't matter now, because Affeldt is off the market. The tougher question is whether you should have confidence in anyone still available.