Don't ask me why some guys are forced to wait for years before they're finally voted into the Hall of Fame. It's baseball's version of evolution. As you may have noticed, a player's statistical line doesn't change when he retires. Sometimes the context in which a player is measured shifts, but that's rare.
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| In 1978 Jim Rice finished with 406 total bases and won the American League MVP. (US Presswire) |
You'll be hearing a lot about him over the next few weeks because Hall ballots are landing in the mailboxes of eligible voters this week. They're due on Dec. 31. And Rice has steadily been gaining momentum over the past several years, to the point where he received 72.2 percent of the vote last year and missed induction by only 16 votes.
Players must receive 75 percent of the vote to be elected to the Hall and, judging by Rice's steady progress, he's a good bet to make it in this, his 15th -- and final -- season of eligibility. As a point of reference, he received only 54.5 percent of the vote four years ago.
Because he disappears after this season if not elected, of the 23 players on the ballot, Rice's case will be the most riveting.
I've always voted for Rice because, for me, he passes perhaps the most important criteria for Cooperstown: Did he dominate his era? That answer is a resounding "yes." Based on the fact that he not only was the American League Most Valuable Player in 1978, but finished in the top five of the MVP voting five other times (and was an eight-time All Star).
Those who don't vote for Rice build much of their case around the fact that he simply didn't dominate for a sustained period of time, and that his RBI and runs totals were inflated because he was part of such a good lineup.
The Hall of Fame election always is grist for terrific debate, and there is certainly no lack of arguments where Rice is concerned. But I think he belongs, and I think his 1978 season -- 406 total bases! -- remains one of the greatest of all time.
Aside from Rice ... Bert Blyleven? Andre Dawson? Jack Morris? Lee Smith? Don Mattingly? None of them have been able to even reach the front porch in voting, let alone cross the threshold.
Of the new guys on the list, Rickey Henderson is a no-brainer. The prediction here is that, after Henderson, it will be sparse.
As for my ballot, I've already spilled the beans on Rice. As for the rest of it ... I'll be spending much of this month scouring Baseball-Reference.com, Total Baseball, some Bill James books and anything else that may be helpful.
Then I'll see you toward the end of the month with another column detailing my Hall of Fame ballot.
