Feb. 24, 2009

Giants camp tour: Cain doesn't have to look far for Cy inspiration

By Danny Knobler | CBSSports.com Senior Writer
Follow Danny

Giants: Five things to know | 1 Man vs. 1 Fan | Roberts

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Matt Cain is 24 years old, and he already owns two 200-inning seasons and a 3.74 career ERA in the big leagues.

Not bad. But no Cy Young, which in the Giants rotation, puts him distinctly in the minority.

"I know," Cain said. "I'm missing some hardware."

To his right in the Giants clubhouse, Cain sees Tim Lincecum, the defending Cy Young winner in the National League. Further to his left, he sees Barry Zito, who won the American League Cy Young in 2002.

And then there's Randy Johnson, the newest Giants starter.

"Randy's got enough that we can just borrow one from him," Cain said with a smile.

Johnson has five, including one from 1995, when Cain and Lincecum were 11 years old. Even Johnson's last Cy Young, in 2002, came long before either Cain or Lincecum had thrown his first big league pitch.

Johnson is 45, still effective but presumably at the end of his outstanding career. Zito is 30, trying to find himself after a 17-loss season in 2008. Lincecum is 24, and trying to keep from being overwhelmed by his sudden stardom.

Sleeper ... Pablo Sandoval: The slugging Sandoval played games at first base, catcher and third base last season, but he only qualifies at first base on CBSSports.com because he didn't reach 20 games at any one spot and first was the position he played the most. That sounds like bad news for Fantasy owners, but it is really only bad news on Draft Day and until he gains eligibility at another position. Sandoval, who enters spring training as the penciled-in starter at third base, can catch the standard five games and gain third base eligibility in a hurry. While his rookie power numbers won't play all that well at first right away, they will be great if he can qualify at catcher in addition to third and first. This is someone to watch very closely this March. Bust ... Brian Wilson: A bust in his prime? Yeah, we can't like everyone who is 27, right? Wilson is popular in Fantasy leagues because he saved 41 games last year for a team that wasn't a contender. That is why he is popular, 40-save guys don't grow on trees. Well, those saves came with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Those are not closer numbers and scare this writer off. It happens every year, someone overpays for saves and that closer loses his job. We are not saying Wilson can't improve his ERA and WHIP, but the mere fact the added pressure of contending could lead to him losing his closer's job. Breakout ... Matt Cain: Last season was supposed to be a breakthrough year for the 16-game loser from 2007. Oops. Granted, that losing record came with a solid 3.76 ERA and 186 strikeouts, but there were some who thought it would be Cain (read: this writer) who would have the season that Lincecum had. Perhaps this is the year, although how could it possibly be Lincecum-good? The Giants should improve offensively, if only because they can't be any worse, so the full-go arm of Cain can rise up to win 15 games with a mid-3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts. Those are numbers of a top 20 option. On a good team, he has 20-win stuff. -- Eric Mack Top Prospects ('09 destination) 1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Double-A 2. Timothy Alderson, RHP, Double-A 3. Buster Posey, C, Double-A 4. Angel Villalona, 1B, High Class A 5. Conor Gillaspie, 3B, High Class A

Complete 2009 Fantasy Draft Prep

In other words, this isn't exactly a repeat of the Braves rotation of the late 1990s, when Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine teamed up as three Cy Youngs, all in the prime of their careers.

Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine are forever linked, to the point that some people had hoped they would all retire the same year and go into the Hall of Fame together.

Johnson, Zito and Lincecum are linked, but only by being together with the 2009 Giants. Johnson and Zito are both left-handers from USC, but they barely knew each other before this spring. Johnson and Lincecum can both dominate hitters, but Johnson is a 6-10 giant, while Lincecum is as unimposing as can be at 5-11.

"He's a bat-boy looking kid," said Felipe Alou, the former major leaguer and manager who works in the Giants front office. "But when he gets on the mound, he's as big as a light tower."

Lincecum is the undisputed ace, even in a rotation that features one guy with 295 career wins and two no-hitters, and another guy with a $126 million contract.

"He has electric stuff," said Johnson, who pitched against Lincecum last September. "He can dominate a game single-handedly. This guy has the ability to throw a no-hitter, or to strike out 20 guys in a game.

"The sky's the limit for him."

The Zito-Lincecum connection is that each won the Cy Young at age 24. Zito won 23 games that year for the A's, a total he hasn't really approached since then. He was 47-17 at that point in his career; he's 76-76 in six seasons since, and in two years since signing the huge contract with the Giants, he's won 21 games, total.

He and the Giants see encouragement from the way he finished last year (4-2 with a 4.10 ERA in his final eight starts).

Zito explains it as only he could.

"We all have a product, and you start thinking about trying to reproduce your product," he said. "It's not about reproducing your product. You either have it or you don't. The last three months [of 2008], I realized that."

Put in old-fashioned baseball terms, he tried to stop thinking so much and started trusting what he had. And even though Zito's fastball isn't what it once was, he likes to point out that Jamie Moyer is winning in the big leagues with a lot less fastball than he has.

Zito also made a surfing analogy, saying that before he figured things out, "I tried to start surfing ahead of the wave. You always want to stay on the crest."

Lincecum, he said, spent 2008 living on the crest.

Lincecum, of course, wouldn't describe it that way. And that's exactly, Zito figures, why Lincecum's career won't take the same post-Cy Young path that his career took.

"He's more of a baseball player than I am, and that's a great thing," Zito said. "He draws a lot of fulfillment from the game itself. I'm actually trying to get back to that feeling, of starting to compete again and enjoying the competition."

Lincecum seems to stay away from that type of analysis, and he also stays away from any great predictions on how he'll follow up his great 2008 season.

"I'm going to try to let my pitching do the talking," he said.

And, it seems, trying hard not to change the way he acts.

"No one here treats me any different," Lincecum said.

Maybe not, but the Giants are counting on him even more than they were at the start of last year. They're counting on all their pitchers, because if this team is going to end a string of four consecutive losing seasons, it'll do it because of pitching.

"It's a great rotation," manager Bruce Bochy said. "It's better than last year. We have some good young arms, and we know it. We're excited about our pitching."

In Lincecum, they have a great young arm. In Johnson, they have a still-effective old arm. In Zito, they have what they hope is a rebounding 30-year-old arm.

And then there's Cain, the guy with plenty of ability, but no Cy Young.

It's nothing to be ashamed of, obviously. But in this Giants rotation, it sure does make him unusual.