Feb. 28, 2009

Reds camp tour: New approach starts with reducing HR department

By Scott Miller | CBSSports.com Senior Writer
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SARASOTA, Fla. -- Baseball's most intriguing experiment this spring is being conducted right here, under the watchful eye of the Mad Scientist himself, Cincinnati general manager Walt Jocketty, and his quite possibly Nutty Professor sidekick, Dusty Baker.

There is no telling what may happen. Exploding beakers, volcanic lava ... the Cincinnati Reds, gasp, actually running their way to the north side of .500?

Yes, the sun is shining, the Reds are smiling and talk about the blank canvas of a fresh new season.

Here's the Reds' proposal: Field a team for 2009 with an emphasis on speed and defense. Swear off those big, strapping, lumbering sluggers. Hello Willy Taveras -- beep, beep! -- goodbye Adam Dunn.

"We've had eight years of losing the other way," Baker said. "It's time to do something different, don't you think?"

Fine. Great. Terrific idea.

Except, the Reds' bandbox at home, Great American Ballpark, was the most homer-friendly park in the National League last season with an average of 2.64 homers per game. And it ranked second in the majors to the Chicago White Sox's U.S. Cellular Field (2.76).

So the questions become:

Sleeper ... Aaron Harang: The Reds' success this season perhaps hinges on no one player more than Harang, who had finally convinced Fantasy owners of his worth before hitting a snag last year. Coming off two straight seasons with 16 wins, 230 innings and 215 strikeouts, he labored through a miserable summer, posting a 7.27 ERA from June through August and missing nearly all of July with a stiff right forearm. But through it all, he maintained respectable strikeout and walk ratios, showing he hadn't completely fallen off the map, and by September, he had gotten back on track, posting a 3.07 ERA and allowing a .247 batting average in 41 innings. Some owners might look at his final line and wait until the middle-to-late rounds to draft him, but those September numbers should give you a better idea of his value. Bust ... Edinson Volquez: At times last year, Volquez looked like the best pitcher in baseball, which should give you reason enough to approach him with caution this year. A supreme talent he is. The best pitcher he is not, and he showed it last year with his 4.60 ERA in the second half. He has overpowering stuff, but his walk rate makes him comparable to a young A.J. Burnett, who still has a tendency to disappoint Fantasy owners even 10 years into his major-league career. Most likely, Volquez will need a year or two more to refine his supreme talents, making a regression this year probable. Still, many Fantasy owners will remember his 12-3 record and 2.29 ERA before the All-Star break last year and select him among the top starting pitchers on Draft Day. Breakout ... Joey Votto: Not often does a player hit .300 though his first 610 major-league at-bats, but not often does one arrive as well-equipped for that final ascension as Votto, who improved by such leaps and bounds in the second half last year that predicting him as a "breakout" this year almost seems too easy. One look at his .958 OPS after the All-Star break should tell you the whole story, but when you consider he also cut down on his strikeouts and hit .321 with 11 home runs, you know the Reds have a star in the making. Early drafts have him going at about the level of Carlos Delgado and Garrett Atkins, but don't be surprised if he ends up performing more at the level of Justin Morneau. -- Scott White Top Reds Prospects ('09 destination) 1. Chris Valaika, SS, Triple-A 2. Todd Frazier, SS, Double-A 3. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Double-A 4. Chris Dickerson, OF, Majors 5. Daryl Thompson, RHP, Triple-A

Reds Fantasy outlook | '09 Draft Prep

Are the Reds flirting with disaster by weakening themselves in an area in which they should have a distinct home-field advantage?

Is Great American Ballpark such an easy mark for homers that even guys like Taveras, with a mere seven career homers in 1,973 at-bats, will be able to pop one here and there, thus reinforcing the Reds' new belief that the negatives in guys like Dunn (no range in left field, an iron glove, etc.) far outweighed the positives?

And just how hard can Gold Glove second baseman Brandon Phillips make starter Bronson Arroyo laugh?

Phillips, in a conversation about the makeover the other morning and while forecasting that an improved Reds' defense will especially help on trips to big ballparks in San Diego and Colorado, noted that Great American Ballpark is not really a home-run park.

"Citizens Bank Park (in Philadelphia) is, the Texas Rangers' park is," Phillips said. "Our ballpark is a normal ballpark."

To which, Arroyo nearly spit up his Pop Tart, or whatever it was he had for breakfast.

"He actually said that? That Great American is not a homer park?" Arroyo said, unable to stifle his laughter. "I'd be surprised if it's not in the top third of all of baseball."

But getting back to what Baker said, about being time to try something different.

Exactly.

The Reds last season completed their eighth consecutive summer of sub-.500 baseball. They're stuck in their worst stretch since 1945-1955, when they played losing baseball for 11 consecutive seasons.

The Ken Griffey Jr. homecoming was nice, but it never took. The opening of Great American Ballpark in 2003 was sensational, but the crowds disappeared when the losing persisted (the Reds ranked 14th in NL attendance in '08). Running sluggers like Griffey, Dunn and Austin Kearns through the outfield didn't work.

"I'll take the home run in a minute," said Baker, who had that with Barry Bonds back in the San Francisco days. "I equate it to basketball. You can't live by the three-point shot. You need layups, too. You need defense and rebounding. You can't win one way. Remember the old high-scoring Denver Nuggets?"

The ones who once were beaten 186-184 by the Detroit Pistons in a triple-overtime game in 1983?

Yeah, defense is good.

"It's not like it is anything new," Baker said. "Maybe around here it is, but not for me. This is all based on the personnel we have, the makeup of the team."

A couple of key starting pitchers seem downright giddy about the new emphasis.

"It will definitely help us, running balls down in gaps," Arroyo said. "You don't realize it until you see it over a long period of time.

"My years with Boston, when Pokey Reese came in and played shortstop, I thought Nomar Garciaparra was a great shortstop. Then I saw Pokey play for two months and I saw the way he got to balls. And I was like, 'You know what? That ball gets through Nomar.'"

In the Reds' brave new world, Taveras is set for center field. The plan is for him to cover half of the outfield and create headaches for opponents on the bases. He led the NL last season with 68 thefts while playing for Colorado. The last time the Reds had anyone even close to that total was back in 1986, when Eric Davis swiped 80 bags.

Phenom Jay Bruce is slated for right field (he played 78 games in right last season, 35 in center and 11 in left). And as for left field, there's a line from here to the Pete Rose Ballpark Café on the other side of the state in Boca Raton. As of now, the favorites to play left are Jerry Hairston Jr. and rookie Chris Dickerson. But several veterans are hoping to squeeze into the picture, including Jacque Jones, Jonny Gomes, Daryle Ward and Laynce Nix.

The new shortstop is veteran Alex Gonzalez, who didn't play at all in '08 because of knee surgery. But he's moving around well right now, and the plan is for him and Gold Glover Phillips to close all holes in the middle of the infield.

"Speed and defense win games," Phillips said. "That's what we like."

Then, he echoed Baker.

"The other way didn't work. We might as well try something else."

"That stadium was built for power, and we still have guys who can hit home runs for us," said starter Aaron Harang, pointing out first baseman Joey Votto (24 homers in '09 and Bruce 21). "But our game isn't going to be based on that anymore.

"We're going to hit-and-run, sacrifice, move runners over."

Yep, it's going to be an interesting summer on the banks of the Ohio River with this approach. Not only did Great American Ballpark rank second to the White Sox's U.S. Cellular Field in homers surrendered last season but, it ranks second to The Cell in the six seasons in which the Reds' still-new park has been open (1,367 to 1,381).

"No matter who makes the team, we'll have some guys who can run the ball down," said Arroyo, and here he's assuming the Reds pitchers will give the revamped outfield a chance to run balls down. Last season, three Reds pitchers ranked among the NL top 10 in homers allowed (Harang second at 35 and Johnny Cueto and Arroyo tied for sixth at 29).

"This team has been too dependent since I've been here on the home run."

Or, as Baker said, "If you're going to win, you can't just win one way."